The War in the Ukraine

Biscuits said:

From that 1 video it is set dead center on the big trailer. I've no clue what you can see differently??

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I see it slightly above. That's not what I am thinking of though. That might be a misinterpretation of the video on my part. Explosion analysis is not my forte.

Biscuits said:

If there are more blasts then these could be other stuff such as planted explosives or unmanned subs etc. But video itself is showing a single detonation.

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That's just it. There are three spans fallen. Two are together and next to the burning portion of the train, where I would expect from the truck bomb. There is another span ahead of the train. That's probably not caused by a truck bomb.

If there were multiple vectors of attack, the makes it less likely to be a truck bomb to me. A truck bomb and some other way is overly complicated and far more likely to be caught and/or fail.

anzha said:

I see it slightly above. That's not what I am thinking of though. That might be a misinterpretation of the video on my part. Explosion analysis is not my forte.



That's just it. There are three spans fallen. Two are together and next to the burning portion of the train, where I would expect from the truck bomb. There is another span ahead of the train. That's probably not caused by a truck bomb.

If there were multiple vectors of attack, the makes it less likely to be a truck bomb to me. A truck bomb and some other way is overly complicated and far more likely to be caught and/or fail.

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Perfectly understand the second point, the way the bridge collapsed does suggest more controlled demolition than just 1 massive bomb. But so far, no footage of any secondary explosions. After waiting awhile, maybe it will surface. So far, I'm only interpreting the video.

It is also be possible that 1 explosion could still cause that type of damage. After all, there is the fuel fire from the train and unevenly distributed damage on the supports may cause a part of the bridge to get torn off by tension.

lolrus said:

You can fit a lot of explosives in one of those long distance hauling trucks, and the explosion seems to originate right ontop of the truck. The thing I don't get is why would Ukraine resort to an undeniable and hugely taboo act of terrorism with a suicide bombing?

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What taboo lol? There are no taboos when you fight off an invader

Everything is fair in a war. That's why war is called the "province of life or death, the road to survival or ruin" and that it should be carefully studied before even contemplating to start a war. Once you start a war, there is no coming back.

Mod edit: deleted inflammatory hyperbole statements

I'm not fully buying the truck bomb working theory, the collapsed span doesn't have any large scale scorch marks that would come from a above road explosion, I'm still leaning towards some sort of sabotage charges set up on supporting pillars.

Either way, it is hilarious that Ukrainians have been hammering the Kherson bridge for months with it still standing and the brand new Kerch bridge was rendered inoperable in a single attack.

tankphobia said:

I'm not fully buying the truck bomb working theory, the collapsed span doesn't have any large scale scorch marks that would come from a above road explosion, I'm still leaning towards some sort of sabotage charges set up on supporting pillars.

Either way, it is hilarious that Ukrainians have been hammering the Kherson bridge for months with it still standing and the brand new Kerch bridge was rendered inoperable in a single attack.

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Since it coincided with the train being there, its clear that it was pretty far planned in advance.

Still, no videos of 2nd explosions... Maybe only 1 set of explosives below the bridge.

Biscuits said:

Truck could perhaps be unmanned during the last stretch? Or they are just that serious about destroying the bridge and the opportunity showed itself.

During ww2 when China was invaded, it was also not unheard of for soldiers to sacrifice themselves to explode bridges to slow down the enemy. The line between "suicide bombing" and "military sacrifice" is pretty blurred. If the soldiers volunteered for it, it is normal and fine.

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Not even the Russians are so bad as to not get tipped off my a self driving truck. Ukrainians have been going semi-ISIS for a while now with their technical spam and head chopping, so it’s not much of a stretch to see them go full ISIS with suicide truck bombs.

As for the difference between terrorist suicide bombing and military acts of heroic valour, the difference is in target and need.

If you are seeing your fellow soldiers get mowed down by enemy MG fire from a bunker and you cannot get your satchel charge to stay in place, holding it in place to ensure the bunker is destroyed is an act of self sacrifice done to save your fellow soldiers. It’s the same as someone jumping on an enemy grenade.

Driving a truck bomb to blow up civilians and/or civilian infrastructure far from the frontlines is completely different and just going full ISIS since the objective is take lives, not save them. It’s also by Japanese kamikazes were looked down upon so much by the allies.

tankphobia said:

I'm not fully buying the truck bomb working theory, the collapsed span doesn't have any large scale scorch marks that would come from a above road explosion, I'm still leaning towards some sort of sabotage charges set up on supporting pillars.

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Yeah, from the photos we have, the roads' surface seems pretty much unharmed. So this means that the sabotage charges were on the pillars of the structure

Biscuits said:

Perfectly understand the second point, the way the bridge collapsed suggests more controlled demolition than just 1 massive bomb. But so far, no footage of any secondary explosions. After waiting awhile, maybe it will surface.

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Indeed. I have many, many questions and no answers. I am not an expert and can be wrong.

I think I can confidently say at least one span of the road bridge is completely unusable and the rail bridge is likewise (note: warping). The other road span would be suspect.

One of the Crimean mayors told people not to panic buy gas as they have 40 days worth in Crimea. I wonder how much of that would get eaten by the military now. Gas, probably not as much, but diesel...

Oy vey. I don't know what to think now. It's like the Russian airbase in Crimea that got bombed taking out almost a squadron worth of fighters.... still don't know what was used even though you see craters.

plawolf said:

Driving a truck bomb to blow up civilians and/or civilian infrastructure far from the frontlines is completely different and just going full ISIS since the objective is take lives, not save them.

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Are we going to pretend that the Crimean Bridge is not a military target which serves as a crucial military logistic node which keeps supplying the Russians in their attack against Ukraine?
Seems like a stretch to me.

If you said that about a random road or bridge in the middle of nowhere in Russia I would agree with you. However the Crimean bridge is a key enabler for Russian troops which thus makes it perfectly acceptable to be targeted and destroyed by all means (conventional and unconventional)