The Ukrainians are not wantonly destroying infrastructure either with one notable exception... In the case of the Zhaporizhizia Nuclear Power Station, with the obvious blind eye of the West they were trying to create a sort of nuclear catastrophe that they would blame on Russia.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
The loss of Krazy Lyman is a disappointment and nothing can hide that. It is though an action in a battle that has been conducted under pre-referendeum rules, just as the the rules have changed completely.
Look at the options that the Russians were presented with:
Try and hold the salient at all costs - possible but crazy imho and would mean Russia adopting Ukrainian tactics. Very expensive in men and material and for what? To hold a town that has already lost its strategic importance some time ago.
Full Counter attack in the vicinity and fight the Ukrainians head on to regrow the salient. Again would require and consume large quantities of men and material. To my mind only a Call of Duty gamer would see this as a serious option.
Do Something else. Yes do Something else.
The Ukraine has seriously denuded its other Donbas garrisons for the Lyman operation and these are the areas where Russia would want to take advantage for itself. This is the way that Russia fights.
Bear in mind that this is now a fight on Russian territory and this means that far more forces can be deployed than the relatively small number of 300k in the entire theater that we have had up to now.
Post referendum is a new reality and battle plans should reflect this.
I note that the very same sources that identified the Ukrainian build in Kharkov in August are now identifying large Russian builds up on the Russian border near Kharkov and in Lughansk.
The Ukrainians are at maximum stretch, that much is clear, they don't have too many more people to get into uniform and what they have has been stretched by the SMO task force that they have been fighting since February.
If there are two new army groups getting prepared to cross the border and hit the Ukrainian forces in Kharkov and Donetsk in the rear of their current operations, I think it will break them.
Why risk a far more sensible operational plan like that just for a few expensive headlines in a head on fight - it wouldn't make sense.
Clearly the South is more critical to Russia than the north and we see this in the results. The Kherson counter offensive is a disaster, I hear estimates of 10,000KIA plus and many more times wounded. The big Ukrianian push on the Zaphorisia and South Donetsk front to split the Russian territory in half, has not happened. Maybe large parts of those forces were also transferred to the North of Donetsk.
The Russian 3rd army group is still in the south and if the the Ukrainian lines have been drawn down, then this too will be vulnerable to a Russian counter attack.
If the idea is to unleash all of these forces at the same time, no Commander in his right mind would let a modest and embarrassing setback like we have seen today, upset his timetable.
Look at the options that the Russians were presented with:
Try and hold the salient at all costs - possible but crazy imho and would mean Russia adopting Ukrainian tactics. Very expensive in men and material and for what? To hold a town that has already lost its strategic importance some time ago.
Full Counter attack in the vicinity and fight the Ukrainians head on to regrow the salient. Again would require and consume large quantities of men and material. To my mind only a Call of Duty gamer would see this as a serious option.
Do Something else. Yes do Something else.
The Ukraine has seriously denuded its other Donbas garrisons for the Lyman operation and these are the areas where Russia would want to take advantage for itself. This is the way that Russia fights.
Bear in mind that this is now a fight on Russian territory and this means that far more forces can be deployed than the relatively small number of 300k in the entire theater that we have had up to now.
Post referendum is a new reality and battle plans should reflect this.
I note that the very same sources that identified the Ukrainian build in Kharkov in August are now identifying large Russian builds up on the Russian border near Kharkov and in Lughansk.
The Ukrainians are at maximum stretch, that much is clear, they don't have too many more people to get into uniform and what they have has been stretched by the SMO task force that they have been fighting since February.
If there are two new army groups getting prepared to cross the border and hit the Ukrainian forces in Kharkov and Donetsk in the rear of their current operations, I think it will break them.
Why risk a far more sensible operational plan like that just for a few expensive headlines in a head on fight - it wouldn't make sense.
Clearly the South is more critical to Russia than the north and we see this in the results. The Kherson counter offensive is a disaster, I hear estimates of 10,000KIA plus and many more times wounded. The big Ukrianian push on the Zaphorisia and South Donetsk front to split the Russian territory in half, has not happened. Maybe large parts of those forces were also transferred to the North of Donetsk.
The Russian 3rd army group is still in the south and if the the Ukrainian lines have been drawn down, then this too will be vulnerable to a Russian counter attack.
If the idea is to unleash all of these forces at the same time, no Commander in his right mind would let a modest and embarrassing setback like we have seen today, upset his timetable.
This is just another 98D chess move by Putin and Russia. Jai.
On a more serious note, how did Russian command even miss the fact that their forces are getting surrounded? They had plenty of time to either retreat asap or get reinforcements when Ukrainian army was not right at their nose in Drobysheve.
Tbh I think blaming generals and officers for military failure is unwarranted in this instance. They can only work with what they are given. Obviously Kadyrov would not name actual accountable people, but when Russian forces are concentrated and well equipped they can actually capture land, as seen in previous pushes around April/May.
THEY DID notice the fact that they were getting surrounded and hence they DID retreat.
All the same though, these consecutive losses are terrible PR, especially if Ukraine continues to roll forward.
They withdrew because they no longer had a choice, it was literally a slaughter of Russian troops... The Ukrainian troops that have liberated the area, are showing videos of many bodies of Russian fighters left on the road....
They are.
That said, the argument that since they are a massive loss since they are now Russia while valid, it also cuts both way because this means the Russians will try to retake it, whatever the costs and the Ukranian forces are not equipped for that, and this also means Ukraine won't be able to use whatever they have left in Lyman anywhere else
We might end up with a Palmyra type of situation, with the city changing hands again.
The fundamental problem with Russia is that their equipment will only become worse over time while the opposite has happened with Ukraine.
Unless Ukraine starts receving M1 and Leo2, unlikely. They will keep receiving TOWs, the eventual HIMARS and eventually maybe Leo1 as Europe runs out of everything
That this offensive on Kharkov relied on technicals should tell you that.