The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng said:

Russians has to make a priority list, considering the lack of manpower.

They don't have enought resources to protect the full frontline.
It looks like now they allocated the resources to defend kherson and the seaside areas.

These having the highest strategical importance, the logistic line is the longest, and if they loose it then it will take lot of time to recapture.


The areas defende thinly and give up are the ones closest to Russia, with the shortest supply routes, and from strategical standpoint the least important ones.
Easy to loose, easy to get.


The NATO forces tried to crack Kherson, but failed to do so, all of the noise that they make in north is just to force Russia to weaken the defense of Kherson and the coastal areas, by removing units from there to protect strategically unimportant areas. Additionaly any unit that travel west to east will strugle to go back to original position if there is a concentrated push at the coast.

In North they have light NATO units, in south they have heavy units. Russia blown up dams in Kherson, and pushing hard there .

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tphuang said:

In what ways are they losing the war? Because they lost a couple of % of territory they held that were lightly defended? Because they lost a couple of "cities" I have never heard of before this war?

It seems to me we are in the middle of a long stalemate. It also seems to me that the Russians are trying to drag things to winter months to gather themselves a little bit before they can make their next move. The new conscripts will give them more operational flexibility in how many people they can bring to the front line.

The Ukrainians have made a massive push because they had to do it. It's unclear to most of us who many people they lost and how much ammos they have left now. Remember that in 1918, the Germans made 1 major last push into France and eventually grinded down and lost the war. When you throw a bunch of men and equipment in the battlefield, you are suppose to gain territories. The question is how much losses you are taking and what is your combat capability now? There are a lot of reports out about how much human losses Ukraine has suffered in the south in this campaign. Ukraine cannot keep this level of offensive up for long period of time. So, what happens after that?

It truly disappoints me to see the hyperventilation on this forum on something like this. There are areas that the Russians have horrendously under-performed even my already low expectations. But we are a long way away from getting close to a settlement.

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gelgoog said:

Mercouris is stating that Russia has only 50k troops in Ukraine. 30k left after 6 month tour of duty or went back for rotation. And a large amount of those 50k were put in Kherson in anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive there. Remainder of troops were put into Zaporizhzhia oblast and west of Donetsk to push Ukrainian forces out in anticipation of the referendum vote. This left Kharkov and Lughansk oblasts exposed.

He also states the annexation of the occupied territories in Ukraine allows Russia to deploy the reservists they are calling up in those regions while staying within the bounds of Russia's legal framework for reservist use.

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gadgetcool5 said:

So you are confused at why anyone might think Russia is losing and you think the last month has been a stalemate.

My question to you is, what would it take for you to admit that it is not a stalemate and that Russia is losing the war?

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gadgetcool5 said:

IMO Russia's next moves if it wants to maximize its chances are:

1) Massive expansion of the police state and repression at home to harshly punish any antiwar activists and activities.

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gadgetcool5 said:

2) Gradually expansion of partial mobilization into general mobilization, with the goal of eventually having several million men under arms in Ukraine.
3) Destroy all known transportation avenues into Ukraine from NATO countries. Destroy all roads and highways no matter how far from the front. Destroy airports like the Kiev Airport to prevent foreign dignitaries from visiting or arms from being flown in. Destroy all power infrastructure including civilian (non nuclear) power plants to damage Ukraine's economy as much as possible. Destroy power lines being served from the nuclear plants to take them offline.
4) Start putting the most powerful conventional warheads you can find on those ICBMs and IRBMs and using them.
5) Reorganize the entire economy into war production to produce as many weapons as possible.
6) Massively up the propaganda apparatus for domestic consumption. Frame it as an existential struggle for Russia.
7) Start blowing up Starlink satellites flying over Ukraine. If NATO wants to target GLONASS in return, so be it. But you don't get to use your satellites to target Russian men with impunity.

I'm not advocating for the above but that's what they'd need to do IMO.

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gadgetcool5 said:

So you are confused at why anyone might think Russia is losing and you think the last month has been a stalemate.

My question to you is, what would it take for you to admit that it is not a stalemate and that Russia is losing the war?

IMO Russia's next moves if it wants to maximize its chances are:

1) Massive expansion of the police state and repression at home to harshly punish any antiwar activists and activities.
2) Gradually expansion of partial mobilization into general mobilization, with the goal of eventually having several million men under arms in Ukraine.
3) Destroy all known transportation avenues into Ukraine from NATO countries. Destroy all roads and highways no matter how far from the front. Destroy airports like the Kiev Airport to prevent foreign dignitaries from visiting or arms from being flown in. Destroy all power infrastructure including civilian power plants to damage Ukraine's economy as much as possible.
4) Start putting the most powerful conventional warheads you can find on those ICBMs and IRBMs and using them.
5) Reorganize the entire economy into war production to produce as many weapons as possible.
6) Massively up the propaganda apparatus for domestic consumption. Frame it as an existential struggle for Russia.
7) Start blowing up Starlink satellites flying over Ukraine. If NATO wants to target GLONASS in return, so be it. But you don't get to use your satellites to target Russian men with impunity.

I'm not advocating for the above but that's what they'd need to do IMO.

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Tam said:

I don't see how losing one battle means you lose the war. Kharkov had at least four major battles and changed as many hands during WW2.

I don't see how you need a million men in Ukraine, looking at how only 80,000 to 120,000 is able to do.

Why would you need to put conventional weapons on ICBMs and use them? You can let loose all those thousands of suicide drones. They have been taking out anything from ammunition centers to military headquarters, and September is happening at an unprecedented rate. The MANPADS it cost to take one down cost more than the drone itself.

Ukraine is also losing its infrastructure and the means to sustain its population. You don't need to destroy roads. When you take out the electric power plants, you take out the means to power the trains. When you take out the fuel depots, you take out the means to fuel up SUVs and pickups. Night after night, there are massive explosions in various Ukrainian cities, the numbers of which there is no point in posting them as it would look like spam. These could be done by drones, air strikes, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, MLRS, and what's being destroyed are headquarters, training centers, communication centers, ammunition depots, fuel depots, electric power plants, railroad centers, even dams.

The war has not started. The real war is about to start.

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manqiangrexue said:

Yup, they need to do these serious things; before that, there's not even enough of Russia in the fight for it to lose the fight. Question is, why have they not done it? What do they gain from stretching out the situation?

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gadgetcool5 said:

So you are confused at why anyone might think Russia is losing and you think the last month has been a stalemate.

My question to you is, what would it take for you to admit that it is not a stalemate and that Russia is losing the war?

IMO Russia's next moves if it wants to maximize its chances are:

1) Massive expansion of the police state and repression at home to harshly punish any antiwar activists and activities.
2) Gradual expansion of partial mobilization into general mobilization, with the goal of eventually having several million men under arms in Ukraine.
3) Destroy all known transportation avenues into Ukraine from NATO countries. Destroy all roads and highways no matter how far from the front. Destroy airports like the Kiev Airport to prevent foreign dignitaries from visiting or arms from being flown in. Destroy all power infrastructure including civilian (non nuclear) power plants to damage Ukraine's economy as much as possible. Destroy power lines being served from the nuclear plants to take them offline.
4) Start putting the most powerful conventional warheads you can find on those ICBMs and IRBMs and using them.
5) Reorganize the entire economy into war production to produce as many weapons as possible.
6) Massively up the propaganda apparatus for domestic consumption. Frame it as an existential struggle for Russia.
7) Start blowing up Starlink satellites flying over Ukraine. If NATO wants to target GLONASS in return, so be it. But you don't get to use your satellites to target Russian men with impunity.

I'm not advocating for the above but that's what they'd need to do IMO.

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Anlsvrthng said:

Game theroy.

The military means only there to support political options.

In each step, the alternative was a peace agreement with the minimum acceptable Russian conditions.

So, if you push a mobilisation , and spend real money AND immedietly you get an agreement then you fooled to waste money and resources.


So, they pushed as far as possible to get polictical solution, and now the chances for it is close to 0 , so this is the time to start to spend real money and push hard.


Could be expressed mathemaically, with a payuot matrix.

Like the allocation of resources allong the frontline.

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