The War in the Ukraine

Pro-Russian sources reporting emergency situation in Lyman, Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines in Stavkov area.


The Russian units of the army, Smolensk and the Russian Legion, have not been able to stop the Ukrainian advance, apparently they are surrounded, their destiny will be to surrender or be destroyed... Valuable units that Russia will lose, due to its bad strategy

One of the few tank v tank battles caught on camera.

The Russians are really losing the war now. According to the foreign affairs chief of the WSJ, a new poll shows support for the war in Russia has dropped to 48%.

The question is why are they still losing? If it's a matter of manpower and policy (such as limiting strikes on Ukrainian targets) they can turn it around. If they are outgunned by superior NATO technology they are really in trouble.

gadgetcool5 said:

The Russians are really losing the war now. According to the foreign affairs chief of the WSJ, a new poll shows support for the war in Russia has dropped to 48%.

The question is why are they still losing? If it's a matter of manpower and policy (such as limiting strikes on Ukrainian targets) they can turn it around. If they are outgunned by superior NATO technology they are really in trouble.

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I would not believe any polls from WSJ on what's going on in Russia. But yeah, nobody knows what the Russian planners are doing. I guess we will know soon if this is a great 8D chess move or another local disaster at Lyman.

pqow1234 said:

I would not believe any polls from WSJ on what's going on in Russia. But yeah, nobody knows what the Russian planners are doing. I guess we will know soon if this is a great 8D chess move or another local disaster at Lyman.

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What in your view should they be doing?

My question is more at the military and tactical level of why the Russians keep losing more territory and can't seem to hold a defensive line.

gadgetcool5 said:

What in your view should they be doing?

My question is more at the military and tactical level of why the Russians keep losing more territory and can't seem to hold a defensive line.

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I'm also similarly puzzled why the Russians can't seem hold a defensive line in Lyman zone. Are they really that lacking in manpower locally? What happened to the 1st Guard Tank army? Where is the rest of the Russian army / Donbass militia? Why aren't more forces being committed to the defense. Is there really an insane plan to draw Ukrainians in?

Nobody knows for now if the Russian military planners are simply genius, insane or just struggling to work with what they have. If you use Occam's Razor, then it's probably the 3rd point. But if you like 10d chess, then its the 1st or 2nd.

We will know soon in Lyman.

gadgetcool5 said:

The Russians are really losing the war now. According to the foreign affairs chief of the WSJ, a new poll shows support for the war in Russia has dropped to 48%.

The question is why are they still losing? If it's a matter of manpower and policy (such as limiting strikes on Ukrainian targets) they can turn it around. If they are outgunned by superior NATO technology they are really in trouble.

Click to expand...

In what ways are they losing the war? Because they lost a couple of % of territory they held that were lightly defended? Because they lost a couple of "cities" I have never heard of before this war?

It seems to me we are in the middle of a long stalemate. It also seems to me that the Russians are trying to drag things to winter months to gather themselves a little bit before they can make their next move. The new conscripts will give them more operational flexibility in how many people they can bring to the front line.

The Ukrainians have made a massive push because they had to do it. It's unclear to most of us who many people they lost and how much ammos they have left now. Remember that in 1918, the Germans made 1 major last push into France and eventually grinded down and lost the war. When you throw a bunch of men and equipment in the battlefield, you are suppose to gain territories. The question is how much losses you are taking and what is your combat capability now? There are a lot of reports out about how much human losses Ukraine has suffered in the south in this campaign. Ukraine cannot keep this level of offensive up for long period of time. So, what happens after that?

It truly disappoints me to see the hyperventilation on this forum on something like this. There are areas that the Russians have horrendously under-performed even my already low expectations. But we are a long way away from getting close to a settlement.

ISW update:


MilitaryLand update:


All eyes on Lyman, although Russia continues to mount so far unsuccessful attacks further south.

Maikeru said:

ISW update:

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No garbage from ISW please

pqow1234 said:

I'm also similarly puzzled why the Russians can't seem hold a defensive line in Lyman zone. Are they really that lacking in manpower locally? What happened to the 1st Guard Tank army? Where is the rest of the Russian army / Donbass militia? Why aren't more forces being committed to the defense. Is there really an insane plan to draw Ukrainians in?

Nobody knows for now if the Russian military planners are simply genius, insane or just struggling to work with what they have. If you use Occam's Razor, then it's probably the 3rd point. But if you like 10d chess, then its the 1st or 2nd.

We will know soon in Lyman.

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Russians has to make a priority list, considering the lack of manpower.

They don't have enought resources to protect the full frontline.
It looks like now they allocated the resources to defend kherson and the seaside areas.

These having the highest strategical importance, the logistic line is the longest, and if they loose it then it will take lot of time to recapture.


The areas defende thinly and give up are the ones closest to Russia, with the shortest supply routes, and from strategical standpoint the least important ones.
Easy to loose, easy to get.


The NATO forces tried to crack Kherson, but failed to do so, all of the noise that they make in north is just to force Russia to weaken the defense of Kherson and the coastal areas, by removing units from there to protect strategically unimportant areas. Additionaly any unit that travel west to east will strugle to go back to original position if there is a concentrated push at the coast.

In North they have light NATO units, in south they have heavy units. Russia blown up dams in Kherson, and pushing hard there .