The War in the Ukraine

Zelensky: I would like China to help Ukraine

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I'm sure he would. But the question is: What will China gain and lose by helping Ukraine versus sitting this one out? And will it screw China in the near or far future? Because from what it looks like currently, helping Ukraine would just give EU and the Anglos breathing room and for them to screw China big time in the near future.

Zelensky says he’s ‘shocked’ by lack of Israeli arms support: ‘They gave us nothing’

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Again, same story, what would Israel gain by not sitting this one out?

Of course, Zelens'kyi obviously knows but can't say it, and the so-called main-stream media will never actually tell any of us peons.

National self-interest is a bitch, eh? And it turns out telegraphing intentions of joining random security blocs have real-life consequences.

FairAndUnbiased said:

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Humble pie is served.

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China should not help Ukraine, or Russia, for that matter. The longer this war drags out, the better it is for China. It is actually in China's interest for the war to continue. The war has benefited China immensely. The war is an absolute good.

BMUFL said:

Honestly, I am not sure "good" is really true here. It's more like the (major) damage has already been done: the "Belt and Road initiative" won't be anything more than a marketing slogan and a collection of half-baked infrastructure investment projects instead of actual functional land corridor (let's not talk about the sea part because PLAN can't actually project that far without running in to serious problem in the near future).

I am pretty sure the question is: What should China do to not make the problem even worse and being forced to commit to one side.

Oh yeah, just remembered, if for whatever reason, Russia decide to nuke Ukraine, what should China do? Because remember the "nuclear umbrella" agreement between Ukraine and China?

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If Russia nuked Ukraine, it is the US and EU that need to worry about what to do not China. Anyone thinks otherwise is delusional.

Who can force China to do anything that it doesn't want to do? Don't be naive. Majority of countries in the world are sitting on the sideline and don't want to get involved in this war. It is a European war not a wold war. Nobody beside the West and its lapdogs give a damn about this conflict except the food and energy inflation caused by this war. Some people in the West are still crazy enough to think China can be persuaded and forced to choose the West when the West is already waging a new cold war against China.

As for BRI, China's exports and imports with these countries have been increasing much faster over the years. That's what count.

Abominable said:

I agree as well. This is like 1914 in WW1 before before proper combat aircraft were developed.

Jamming can work to an extent but wouldn't do much against autonomous drones. As for DEW I'm not sure they offer much advantage over conventional projectile or missile based AD.

The munition shouldn't matter. All the drone needs to do is drop it.

I would be looking at survival rates for suicide drones. If a lot of them are surviving then reusable drones could makes sense. Instead of it costing $30,000 to precision strike a target you can get the price down to $500.

I would reserve suicide drones for high value targets (e.g. HIMARS, SAMs, tanks) & long distance targets and use reusable drones for everything else.

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I don't see that drones will ever be out of the equation for the foreseeable future. They are cheap, effective and highly disposable, if there really was a way to counter them effectively the US would've cooked up something by now, since they have been using predators and reapers for decades at this point.

Like ATGMs, UAVs are here to stay and militaries will just need to deal with the fact that no matter how good their AA umbrella is some $500 LO drones are going to get through and blow up a tank or two every once in a while.

Thing is we have not even seen the full potential of them yet, once we get functional AI controlled swarms they would become a terrifying force on the battlefield. Unjammable auto targetting swarms that can leave a single UAV up high to designate targets while the rest perform treetop level flying to avoid ground fire.

tankphobia said:

I don't see that drones will ever be out of the equation for the foreseeable future. They are cheap, effective and highly disposable, if there really was a way to counter them effectively the US would've cooked up something by now, since they have been using predators and reapers for decades at this point.

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Those are large drones like TB2. Ukranian simply dont have much effective defense against smaller drones as most of artillery/rocket attacks is guided by smaller drones.
The drone that Ukrainian shot down was flying at higher altitude and relatively high speed but only single target.
this original Pantsir S1 in the field (25 year old ) auto tracking cannon against DJI hand held drone. The last missile shot goes like cruise missile assuming the target is at much lower altitude.

pmc said:

Those are large drones like TB2. Ukranian simply dont have much effective defense against smaller drones as most of artillery/rocket attacks is guided by smaller drones.
The drone that Ukrainian shot down was flying at higher altitude and relatively high speed but only single target.
this original Pantsir S1 in the field (25 year old ) auto tracking cannon against DJI hand held drone. The last missile shot goes like cruise missile assuming the target is at much lower altitude.

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I think some of those drones were able to defeat Russian radars either by taking advantage of low speed doppler filtering or by hiding in clutter. Small, slow moving and low flying drones are particularly challenging and require modern radar techniques like micro-doppler to discriminate and target.

I assume that radar wasn’t really radiating in the video. The guy was awful close to remain safe and the target below minimal range anyway.

Zichan said:

I think some of those drones were able to defeat Russian radars either by taking advantage of low speed doppler filtering or by hiding in clutter. Small, slow moving and low flying drones are particularly challenging and require modern radar techniques like micro-doppler to discriminate and target.

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I dont think Russia has modern systems in every corner. majority of tech is still 20 to 25 years old.
The arctic version has 18 missiles to deal with more targets. there is new AESA radar version with 48 smaller missiles coming soon.

Zichan said:

I assume that radar wasn’t really radiating in the video. The guy was awful close to remain safe and the target below minimal range anyway.

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this is promotional type video. hard to know whether radar can find this size target.

Has anyone posted about this leak?

Appix said:

Has anyone posted about this leak?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573084432080183299

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Probably better to post the actual link since the twitter post is going to get taken down any moment now.

Remember Patchwork claiming he had access to classified information and that it was Ukrainians doing their own intel and they didn't need much American help.

Besides drones, what this war has revealed is the remarkable multiplying factor of remote ISR. Even though NATO has no aircraft overflying Ukraine, they seemingly have better situational awareness of Russian positions and movement than the Russians themselves.

Russia has entered this war woefully inadequate in surveillance satellites. According to one report, they have just one radar sensing satellite in orbit. Their optical sensing satellites are many generations behind Western with a resolution of 0.5m against 0.05m. The latter can even discriminate Russian from Ukrainian vehicles.