The War in the Ukraine

Zichan said:

The US is considering to give Ukraine M1 main battle tanks. US general explains soke if the drawbacks associated with the tanks, like inferior mobility and increased fuel consumption:

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Shows some desparation that US would consider it, but ultimately I don't think US will send them.

M1s and Leopard 2s without air and infantry support are garbage, just as shit as T80BV in the same conditions.

And that's not even considering weight and fuel problems.

In short, sending such tanks only provide a morale boost for Russian side and improved optics as they will now be destroying M1A1s en masse instead of T72Ms or T55s.

tankphobia said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572294538386968576

Looks like I called it too early, address to nation was cancelled after a 2 hr delay, may have been moved for tomorrow after considering late hours. No full mobilization, maybe partial from enacting martial law in newly referendum annexed territory?

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Looks like it is pre-recorded. Makes sense to delay it. People on the Far East side should not have to wait in the dead of night for an important speech.

The appeal to the public recorded by Putin will be shown on September 21, when the Far East "wakes up" - Forbes, citing “sources in the Presidential Administration”

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I don't think Putin is able to do mass mobilization. The army was gutted post USSR and doesn't have what it takes to absorb millions of mobilized troops. Especially after lots of officers died in Ukraine.

Putin's speech postponed to tomorrow:

If Putin does decide to recognise DLNR, it could be a ploy to end the war. Give Ukraine the ultimate that to continue fighting you are encroaching on Russian territory and you risk full scale war, including nukes. In other words leave the Donbass and make a peace deal, no more fighting and the European economic meltdown is avoided. Maybe the speech delay is because of some last minute European negotiations? Basically a form of what @Phead128 has been saying.

I don't like it because it'll mean the main objectives of the war will not have been fulfilled. I don't think Russia gets a second chance to solve the Ukrainian problem. I doubt the Ukrainians would agree either. Americans will likely be pushing for war (the neocons at least). For the first time in the war the Ukrainians are winning and have been able to push the Russians back. I doubt they would be willing to give up any territory they have "liberated".

Abominable said:

For the first time in the war the Ukrainians are winning and have been able to push the Russians back. I doubt they would be willing to give up any territory they have "liberated".

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First time in what. It wasn't the first time Ukraine did a counter offensive in Kharkov and the Russian forces were pushed all the way to the Russian border. Are you already forgetting those antics where the Ukrainians filmed themselves with the border fence post?

OSINTbros are in a bit of tizzy whining Putin is about to escalate, though. Kadyrov is talking about escalation, too but then you have Duma heads talking about no escalation of the conflict.

I'm Sitting here having a beer and reading the updates. So this SMO not really war thing started off with Putin c*ckblocking NATO forces that were poised to strike across all Donbass into Crimea. That was never allowed to materialize.

Now we have once again big changes to the status quo, so im thinking uncle Joe must have sent some wunderwaffes that Putin didn't find acceptable so are we once again watching us vassal forces being preempted? What happened for such a drastic series of events following and organized pullout of many positions?

Some part of the equation clearly needed to be rebalanced

sheogorath said:

OSINTbros are in a bit of tizzy whining Putin is about to escalate, though. Kadyrov is talking about escalation, too but then you have Duma heads talking about no escalation of the conflict.

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Yeah well they said no invasion minutes before invasion so whatever. I believe what I see not what I'm told. Been like that many many years

Well, ASB is claiming the Ukranians are moving the Kiev reserves to Kharkov and Odessa units into Nikolayiv, so either they are going to try one final push before everything gets reinforced after escalation or something else is going on

I have my doubts, particularly about the Kiev reserves, as that would expose the capital to whatever is left in Belarus, or even direct Belarussian involvement. Not sure they want to risk that again.

Also our local pro-Ukranian squad has been mostly quiet today.

gelgoog said:

First time in what. It wasn't the first time Ukraine did a counter offensive in Kharkov and the Russian forces were pushed all the way to the Russian border. Are you already forgetting those antics where the Ukrainians filmed themselves with the border fence post?

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Assuming that was even real and not faked....that was just empty fields. They've taken back some settlements this time.