I wouldn't be driving 50 ton tanks over 'frozen' rivers. I've seen comments here about just wait until the rivers freeze. I live in Canada, further north than Ukraine is. You don't play around on frozen rivers if you like life. I can't imagine driving tanks over them
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
BTW, I believe in this offensive, Ukraine has not achieved anything militarily significant. Sure, the Russians must have miscalculated. If they meant to abandon the area, they could have done this with more organization. Sure, the Ukrainians side get a psychological boost and the donors are happy, but militarily, they have gain very little. At the end, faced with an unfavorable situation, the Russians retreated and accepted defeat, unlike how the Ukrainians behave in the past, to defend every square inch of land to the last Ukrainian. The Russians are able to preserve their men to fight another day. By all accounts, the assaults were quite costly to the Ukrainians. In the Kherson front, something like 8000 were killed with nothing to show for. In the Kharkov front, even as they move into this land vacated by the Russians, they lost something like 4000 due to Russian artillery and bombing. Adding all the wounded, that is 30k or more gone. This is a staggering loss for occupying land that is of little strategic value. Now they must have more troops to defend this area and extend their supply line. This feels like a last gasp of the Ukrainians.
It won't be, because Putie has his generals cockblocked and in chastity locked in some 17th century BDSM basement dungeon where they conduct this war. They will do everything they can to ensure the continuation of this war for as long as possible instead of seeking any clear decisive victory. Because they know if they don't deliver what the big guy wants they are finished
I did not say anything about moving 45 ton tanks over frozen rivers. I was talking about moving them over what used to be mud more easily.
No I know, but if you dare to go back in time on this thread there are multiple posts about when the rivers are frozen Ukraine will become some tank autobahn. That's all I was getting at, your comment just reminded me of that.
I have alot of experience with ice through my life since I was a young boy, and you do not screw around on frozen moving bodies of water ever, they are extremely dangerous and unstable. Frozen lakes are one thing, but anywhere there is a current, ice is completely different and unpredictable there. Even more so when talking about rivers downstream of a dam that can change water levels.
Winter won't change much of the difficulty if navigating ukraines rivers. If anything I would bet it just adds more complications
Rybar mentioned that the eastern side of the city is still under Russian control and in their latest map still shows it as contested. Also the source of that article is The Copium Zone, so yeah
You are correct, Russia did make rapid progress from June to July against Lyman (20K), Severodonetsk (100K), and Lysychansk (95K). However, these are small towns/cities and are not comparable to major cities like Kharkiv (1,400K) or Mariupol (450K), So it's an apples to oranges comparison. Rapid success against small targets doesn't mean rapid success against major cities or Donbass.
Similarly, you are correct that Putin has resounding success against Georgia (3M), Chechnya (1.3M), Crimea (2.4M), Syria (17.5M) in the past. However, these are small countries/territories and are not comparable to major state like Ukraine (37M). Success against small targets doesn't mean success against much larger countries, particularly those with significant US/NATO aid and armaments.
Personally, it appears Putin will adopt the prolonged war strategy due to his disrespect of enemy resistance (emboldened by NATO support), not because he planned all along for a prolonged war like 5D chess strategy based on prior victories in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, or Syria. A NATO-backed Ukraine is not a peer-competitor, but much stronger than any enemy Russia has faced in those minor states.
Putin should change the rules of engagement to do target dual-use civilian infrastructure, massive troop surge, strategic bombing/missile strike, and treat this as a serious war, not some careless operation.
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My prediction on Russia fighting in Kramatorsk by August was based on them taking Bhakmut and Siversk, not Kharkov. These towns, if anything, are smaller than Lysychansk/Severodonetsk. If they manage to even take one of these key towns, the entire defensive line will collapse.
As to the other wars, I used them to demonstrate the capability of Putin as the leader. As you recall, we the U.S. recently pulled out of Afghanistan after two decades and got nothing to show for it. So Russia being successful is a demonstration of Putin's ability and judgement. Actually, Syria is similar order of magnitude as Ukraine. That war was also a proxy war with NATO. In that war, Russia had to do expedition which was different from fighting someone right next door.