With so much at stake, I just don't see how some words on a piece of paper will stop them from sending more troops. Even if one million is inflated, they have a lot more they can send if they wanted to.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
A slow push also means Ukraine needs to support most of its population with foreign capital injections. It must not be cheap paying all those millions of public sector employees without any taxes being collected.
You do not get it. Coal isn't a replacement for gas, neither in industrial processes like making fertilizer, nor in heating. You cannot convert a gas boiler or stove to coal just like that. Germany is highly dependent on gas usage.
Azerbaijan's a blip on the radar. Their reserves are tiny in comparison as is their production.
Nothing the West supplied is better than what Ukraine lost. A good example is the much vaunted HIMARS MLRS which is worse in terms of specs than Ukraine's Vilkha-M MLRS. Which is basically an upgraded Smerch MLRS with GPS guided rounds. Russia has a similar system with GLONASS guided rounds called Tornado-S.
The Chinese cooperation with the Ukraine MIC ended with the US coup in Ukraine in 2014. One example is US blocking the acquisition of Motor Sich.
You have to look at Ukraine the country more broadly. With the war going on its own soil, especially now with Russia bombing its critical infrastructure, Ukraine lack transportation, electricity, gas, people to work, food, even clean water(if their electric power is disrupted). The existing industrial base comes to a grinding halt. Even their farms were disrupted. 30 million people will need to be on permanent life support by the West, either as refugees or inside Ukraine. Even if someone just magically drop all these things at the Polish boarder, the means to distribute them will not be there. This situation gets worse as the war goes on. Even if Russia stays where they are today and just keep the fighting going in Donbass for the foreseeable future, Ukraine will grow increasingly desperate as the economic situation worsens. On the other side of the fence, Russian lives go on. How long will the West be willing to support 30 million people indefinitely if we also face inflation and recession? We are Democracies, which are fickle. Our leaders could be thrown out if our lives are bad and new leaders will have to focus on fixing domestic issues. I don't know how you see their strategic situation improving with a meaningless victory over a swath of vacant land.
Donbass conquered "By August"....
According to posts in early June/July, you predicted Donbass would be liberated by August....and now it's entering mid-September with an apparent Izyum counter-offensive and no end in sight...
What changed from June/July until September, what in your opinion has changed?
According to posts in early June/July, you predicted Donbass would be liberated by August....and now it's entering mid-September with an apparent Izyum counter-offensive and no end in sight...
What changed from June/July until September, what in your opinion has changed?
Last edited:
I was watching the show like everyone here. I think we can safely say that no one has any special insight. I based my prediction on how fast things were going in the past and how much is left. I must say that since taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, Russian progress has definitely slow to a grinding halt. Perhaps this is a change in their strategy, Maybe they encountered more difficulties for these new areas. Maybe they got lucky in Severodonetsk. Again, I don't have any special insights.
I feel Putin will pull out a WW2 kinda shit, a whole damn new army in the winter with a massive counter-offensive.
Exactly. And the mud solidifies in winter once the water freezes over. I don't know why some people think Russia will stop attacking in the winter. That is contrary to what they usually do.
All he said was there is much more Russia could do with this silly SMO game they are playing so far.
Russian involvement I believe right now is limited supporting local militia with intelligence, planning, weapons, training, vehicles, logistics, but most importantly airpower and unmatched artillery power. The last two the donbass militias lack in both quantity and quality that Russia posses
What he is saying is they can take the gloves off, knock Ukraine into the 17th century and go full invasion with Russian land forces and just crush the country. Or he could broaden the scope of targets they strike behind the lines as was evidenced by hitting a dam that had a pretty serious side effect on local ukro logistics
I hope it doesn't lead to ww3 but if it does, it does. I don't want to see Russia and Russians consumed and dismembered by the corrupt maniacs that run our countries anymore than Russians do.
What's driving me insane is there is a sudden absense of ATGMs in both sides. Why aren't defenders equipped with atgms to knock out these bmps that casually drive up with 15 dudes on top? Why aren't Russians using submunitions on these trenches? I don't think I've seen a single instance of using then and they were used very effectively in Syria, Georgia even in Chechen wars