The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng said:

Frankly,. I stope long time ago to figure out the strategy of the Russians.

The Ukrainan side is easy and transparent like the thin air, but the Russian side looks like analysing a women behaviour - when you feel you get hold on it is the time to have a huge shock.

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I really think people are over analyzing every move Russia is making. They went in unprepared and now they are stuck with a war they don't really want to fight.

Yeah you could say the Ukrainians won't be able to forcibly eject them, but if they continue to get support from the West there's not really much Russia can do about ending the War, seeing as even 23rd Feb lines are unacceptable to the Ukrainians now and would be equally if not more so for the Russians after so much resources have been spent.

Mobilization doesn't seem to be on the table either, they still want to use those stopgap measures of recruiting a few hundred prisoners rather than the tens of thousands of troops they need to wage a successful campaign.

Military losses are temporary, but the prestige loss from this whole affair is very real. Already ex-soviets states are taking advantage of a weakened Russia to settle their grievances.

sheogorath said:

Just saw a vídeo that I'm not sure if it's appropiate to link to, but basically it was an ukrainian BMP desperately backing into another BMP, knocking the soldiers that were riding on top. Then trying to reverse again, crushing/almost crushing several of the soldiers

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The full version of the video in question appeared on the ASB Military News Telegram channel.

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Today the Ukrainians successfully carried out several terrorist attacks against civilians in Kherson, Berdyansk and Luhansk.

- shelled the city administration building in Kherson while a meeting was in session, also hitting the city center & random civilians

- assassinated the Prosecutor General of the LPR and his Deputy with a bomb in his office

- murdered the Deputy Mayor of Berdyansk and his wife

tankphobia said:

but if they continue to get support from the West there's not really much Russia can do about ending the War, seeing as even 23rd Feb lines are unacceptable to the Ukrainians now and would be equally if not more so for the Russians after so much resources have been spent.

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Russia can do something.

Best case scenario, I predict the Putin's gas/oil embargo will force the Europeans to force the Ukrainians to accept negotiated settlement which includes concessions, including accepting the Feb 23rd lines, recognize DPR/LNR independence, relinquish Crimea, no NATO membership, Russia return Kherson/South, and Russia/West will offer 'security guarantees' to Ukraine in exchange for this defacto unequal treaty. Russia later annex DPR/LNR via referendum. So at the end, Russia will bitten off more than it expected, but at least it displayed the willingness of Russia to aid and protect it's interests in it's sphere of influence, and repelling NATO encroachment.

Worst case scenario, if Putin's gas/oil embargo doesn't work, I can see Putin just unilaterally declaring victory once DPR is fully "liberated", then annexing the currently occupied regions, leaving nominal Russian peacekeeper force, then engaging in a decades long border skirmish not unlike the Sino-Vietnam border skirmishes (1979-1991). This will have a secondary benefit of engaging Ukraine in semi-permanent low-level war, which prevents possibly Ukrainian NATO membership according to NATO constitution (which says no new members engaged in existing war). Russia still achieves it's original objectives of no NATO membership, protecting kinsmen, liberating Russian-speaking areas, just not formalized in a Unequal treaty...and likely great costs (Finland/Sweden NATO join, long-border skirmishes costly in time, money, lives)

Either way, let's not pretend Russia has no options left to play.

Phead128 said:

Russia can do something.

Best case scenario, I predict the Putin's gas/oil embargo will force the Europeans to force the Ukrainians to accept negotiated settlement which includes concessions, including accepting the Feb 23rd lines, recognize DPR/LNR independence, relinquish Crimea, no NATO membership, Russia return Kherson/South, and Russia/West will offer 'security guarantees' to Ukraine in exchange for this defacto unequal treaty. Russia later annex DPR/LNR via referendum. So at the end, Russia will bitten off more than it expected, but at least it displayed the willingness of Russia to aid and protect it's interests in it's sphere of influence, and repelling NATO encroachment.

Worst case scenario, if Putin's gas/oil embargo doesn't work, I can see Putin just unilaterally declaring victory once DPR is fully "liberated", then annexing the currently occupied regions, leaving nominal Russian peacekeeper force, then engaging in a decades long border skirmish not unlike the Sino-Vietnam border skirmishes (1979-1991). This will have a secondary benefit of engaging Ukraine in semi-permanent low-level war, which prevents possibly Ukrainian NATO membership according to NATO constitution (which says no new members engaged in existing war). Russia still achieves it's original objectives of no NATO membership, protecting kinsmen, liberating Russian-speaking areas, just not formalized in a Unequal treaty...and likely great costs (Finland/Sweden NATO join, long-border skirmishes costly in time, money, lives)

Either way, let's not pretend Russia has no options left to play.

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That all depends on if Ukraine wants to play ball, the US can continue to support Ukraine even if European support faded, what can Europe do to force Ukraine to settle? This is precisely the perfect situation for the US, they are achieving all their geopolitical goals in Europe with none of the blowback and at a exceedingly low cost. They can keep this up for years or even decades, they will prop up the Ukrainian government for however long it would take.

On your second scenario this is even more apparent, nobody can force Ukraine to do anything, if they have to fight off Russia with nothing but AK-74s and a mountain of dead they will do it, there is no way that Russia can nominally put a token peacekeeping force here because Ukraine will do large scale offensives to reclaim their land. Can Russia afford the humiliation of losing the Donbass or Luhansk because they wanted to withdraw? The answer would be no.

Phead128 said:

Either way, let's not pretend Russia has no options left to play.

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It's not even winter yet and there are already protests erupting through Europe. Let people pay huge energy bills to keep from freezing for a few months, or being not allowed to have a shower every morning and let's compare then.

I think Putin is in it to deal a political strike to European governments with an effective tool he has at his disposal. Kind of like what we tried and failed to do to Russia via sanctions.

Phead128 said:

Russia can do something.

Best case scenario, I predict the Putin's gas/oil embargo will force the Europeans to force the Ukrainians to accept negotiated settlement which includes concessions, including accepting the Feb 23rd lines, recognize DPR/LNR independence, relinquish Crimea, no NATO membership, Russia return Kherson/South, and Russia/West will offer 'security guarantees' to Ukraine in exchange for this defacto unequal treaty. Russia later annex DPR/LNR via referendum. So at the end, Russia will bitten off more than it expected, but at least it displayed the willingness of Russia to aid and protect it's interests in it's sphere of influence, and repelling NATO encroachment.

Worst case scenario, if Putin's gas/oil embargo doesn't work, I can see Putin just unilaterally declaring victory once DPR is fully "liberated", then annexing the currently occupied regions, leaving nominal Russian peacekeeper force, then engaging in a decades long border skirmish not unlike the Sino-Vietnam border skirmishes (1979-1991). This will have a secondary benefit of engaging Ukraine in semi-permanent low-level war, which prevents possibly Ukrainian NATO membership according to NATO constitution (which says no new members engaged in existing war). Russia still achieves it's original objectives of no NATO membership, protecting kinsmen, liberating Russian-speaking areas, just not formalized in a Unequal treaty...and likely great costs (Finland/Sweden NATO join, long-border skirmishes costly in time, money, lives)

Either way, let's not pretend Russia has no options left to play.

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good points, the second option i think is definitely something putin is contemplating, which is going for a long war. it also explains why he is not declaring war or conscription, since that would necessitate a quick military resolution. the way i see it the precedent that finds more parallel with this model would be the korean war. after initial battles with big losses on either side they settled for a fairly static front for two years, with skirmishes and localized battle here and there and then a frozen conflict to end it for good. given the huge disparity in numbers, russia can only hope to achieve this if it has sufficient drones and artillery fire everywhere along the front to negate any ukrainian concentration of force. on the other hand ukraine is getting ambitious it seems that they might be looking for some sort of decisive engagement now, this is both a danger and an opportunity for russia.

Phead128 said:

Best case scenario, I predict the Putin's gas/oil embargo will force the Europeans to force the Ukrainians to accept negotiated settlement which includes concessions, including accepting the Feb 23rd lines, recognize DPR/LNR independence, relinquish Crimea, no NATO membership,

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I'm not seeing it if the "conditions of surrender" proposed by the Ukrainians that is going around is true. If it is, they are drinking their own Kool-Aid

"The conditions of Ukraine are as follows:

1. Withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories occupied by them after 24.02.2022.

2. Legislative transfer of all gold and foreign exchange reserves and seized assets of the Russian Federation and Russians as of 1.09.2022. The law on reparations must be adopted by the State Duma, the Federation Council and signed by the President.

3. Additional payment of reparations of 200 billion euros within 25 years in equal installments.

4. Free supplies of natural gas to Ukraine for five years from 01.01.2023.

5. Holding a referendum on the status of Crimea no later than 011.01.24 under the auspices of the UN and international organizations.

6. Demilitarization of the entire European part of the Russian Federation with the withdrawal of all parts and connections beyond the Urals.

7. Legislative reduction of the Russian army to 600,000 people.

8. Admission of military observers to all military facilities of the Russian Federation, including closed research institutes and design offices.

9. Early elections of the State Duma with the full participation of international observers.

10. Early presidential elections with the full participation of international observers.


Within 12 months, with the full implementation of all items, the international community will begin to partially lift the previously imposed sanctions.

Immediately after the initialling of the agreement, the disconnection of banks from SWIFT, the ban on the sale of Russian coal, oil and LNG will be lifted, flights will be restored and deliveries of vital medicines and aircraft components will be established.

At the insistence of the head of the U.S. State Department Blinken, extreme points on "extradition" of the Russian leadership were removed from the "peace plan"."

sheogorath said:

9. Early elections of the State Duma with the full participation of international observers.

10. Early presidential elections with the full participation of international observers.

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and the "International observers" will cry foul if the candidate they dont like actually win.

tankphobia said:

That all depends on if Ukraine wants to play ball, the US can continue to support Ukraine even if European support faded, what can Europe do to force Ukraine to settle? This is precisely the perfect situation for the US, they are achieving all their geopolitical goals in Europe with none of the blowback and at a exceedingly low cost. They can keep this up for years or even decades, they will prop up the Ukrainian government for however long it would take.

On your second scenario this is even more apparent, nobody can force Ukraine to do anything, if they have to fight off Russia with nothing but AK-74s and a mountain of dead they will do it, there is no way that Russia can nominally put a token peacekeeping force here because Ukraine will do large scale offensives to reclaim their land. Can Russia afford the humiliation of losing the Donbass or Luhansk because they wanted to withdraw? The answer would be no.

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it also depends on if Russia continues their new strategy of hitting their military infrastructure like dams, power plants, water treatment plants, etc. and sends them back to the medieval era. how long are they going to fight with AKs when their country is turned to Congo with snow?

Would you guys say the Russian strategy is going to end up looking like the Sino-Vietnamese conflict of the Deng Xiaoping era? Bleed Ukraine's national power for years via low/medium intensity battle until its backers collapse and its forced to negotiate on its terms.