The War in the Ukraine

infinity_wor;d said:

Many people(if not robots) in this thread are not talking about what's going on at Balakliya Bulge but just imagine the things that may never happen in the near future. Please be realistic.

Here is the situation I know by this afternoon:View attachment 97234
The red/blue circle for the position held by Ukraine/Russia. Blue square for the possible position of AFU's assault forces.

For AFU, in this round of attack, they advanced about 50 kilometers in two days (one of the best among NATO countries, if not the best except the United States and France), and get two key positions: Balakliya and Volokhiv Yar. But the problem is that AFU failed to take Shevchenkove and the Kup'yans'k in the northeast direction. This made the AFU's assault forces stuck in the middle of the countryside and failed to completely destroy the defenses of the Russians in this direction - more like forcing the Russians to give up non-critical positions. Their position is very risky. However, they came to the riverside, opening the possibility for the next attack across the river and outflank Igyum to the east.

For the Russians, Balakliya held out for a while until its defenders retreated on their own, buying time for the reserves. The Russian army did not suffer any major losses. To be honest, there were not many Russian troops in this direction from the beginning. But if the Russians do not give any further response, then AFU may continue to attack after a week or two, crossing the river to outflank Igyum, which indeed poses a big threat.

For me, after seeing what happened in Kherson, this attack by AFU is shocking. I wonder what is AFU's next move, and how the follow-up troops of the Russians will defeat them.

In conclusion, it is too early for both sides to talk about failure. After AFU occupied Balakliya and Volokhiv Yar, there was at least a place to retreat and resupply for them, so if their commander is not dumb, retreat when necessary, the Kherson penis thing likely won't happen again. On the other hand, although the Russians withdrew from many positions, there were no major losses, and Shevchenkove and Kup'yans'k were still in their hands.

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Botnet said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568176123359465474

Shevchenkove was taken. Pretty sure its just Kupyansk that's still standing.

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tygyg1111 said:

I guess we'll find out with time, but with the number of "Russian General killed / captured" claims that have been debunked the last few months its more likely this is more of the same

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Botnet said:

View attachment 97251
Current map. Russian reinforcements are 5 steps behind it seems.

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Atomicfrog said:

Russian troops are retreating to the other side of the Oskil to not getting themselves in bigger problems with a geographic obstacle in their rear. Rivers are powerfull allies and ennemies. Clearly, they need to cut all link on the Dnieper if they want to continue in the east or constant reinforcement from Ukrainian side will continue to make the front more or less stagnant. Gaining a bit, losing a bit, gaining it back... what a waste.

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Botnet said:

A couple months of progress gone. Still no signs of RuAF, still no strikes on the Dnieper bridges, and a complete lack of preparedness.

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