plawolf
Lieutenant General
I am looking at these autumn Ukrainian offensives and just marvelling at their stupidly.
At the very cusp of winter, Ukraine is going on the offensive across rivers using pontoons and bridges that form natural choke points and easily cut at any time by the Russians thanks to aviation and cruise missiles if not artillery.
All they needed to do is wait a few more months and once the winter hits in earnest and the rivers freeze, they could be able to advance basically anywhere they want. That’s the only proven way you can score major victories against a numerically inferior opponent with firepower superiority - spread them thin and defeat them in detail.
Someone asked earlier why the Russians are not blowing the bridges, this is why - they don’t want to interrupt Ukraine as it’s making colossal strategic mistakes.
Let’s not sugar coat it, they Russians are getting spanked and this isn’t more of their standard bait and counterattack moves.
This is again down to Russian laxity and incompetence as much as Ukrainian battlefield prowess. The Russians got complacent and kept rinse and repeating the same trick and were caught with their pants down when the Ukrainians managed to tailor a counter. The Ukrainians are also throwing a lot of their best troops and foreign mercenaries into the fight. The Russians probably got used to curbstomping poorly trained Ukrainian cannon fodder conscripts and were not expecting or able to handle motivated, western trained veteran troops.
But all these are tactical level small details. This is costing Russia a lot more than it is used to or want to pay in blood and equipment, but let’s not kid ourselves about this being able to turn the tide of the war.
Depending on how the inevitable Russian counter-attacks goes, this could be Ukraine’s last significant offensive if they loose too much of their best troops here.
But none of this changes the fact that these offensives would have been far more effective and cost Ukraine far less in men and material had they been launched during winter, when the entire frontline opens up for attack instead of now, having to fight at predictable choke points that maximises Russian firepower advantages while minimising Ukrainian numerical superiority.
We all know why Kiev is needlessly throwing away Ukrainian lives to rush and try to end the war before the weather gets too cold.
At the very cusp of winter, Ukraine is going on the offensive across rivers using pontoons and bridges that form natural choke points and easily cut at any time by the Russians thanks to aviation and cruise missiles if not artillery.
All they needed to do is wait a few more months and once the winter hits in earnest and the rivers freeze, they could be able to advance basically anywhere they want. That’s the only proven way you can score major victories against a numerically inferior opponent with firepower superiority - spread them thin and defeat them in detail.
Someone asked earlier why the Russians are not blowing the bridges, this is why - they don’t want to interrupt Ukraine as it’s making colossal strategic mistakes.
Let’s not sugar coat it, they Russians are getting spanked and this isn’t more of their standard bait and counterattack moves.
This is again down to Russian laxity and incompetence as much as Ukrainian battlefield prowess. The Russians got complacent and kept rinse and repeating the same trick and were caught with their pants down when the Ukrainians managed to tailor a counter. The Ukrainians are also throwing a lot of their best troops and foreign mercenaries into the fight. The Russians probably got used to curbstomping poorly trained Ukrainian cannon fodder conscripts and were not expecting or able to handle motivated, western trained veteran troops.
But all these are tactical level small details. This is costing Russia a lot more than it is used to or want to pay in blood and equipment, but let’s not kid ourselves about this being able to turn the tide of the war.
Depending on how the inevitable Russian counter-attacks goes, this could be Ukraine’s last significant offensive if they loose too much of their best troops here.
But none of this changes the fact that these offensives would have been far more effective and cost Ukraine far less in men and material had they been launched during winter, when the entire frontline opens up for attack instead of now, having to fight at predictable choke points that maximises Russian firepower advantages while minimising Ukrainian numerical superiority.
We all know why Kiev is needlessly throwing away Ukrainian lives to rush and try to end the war before the weather gets too cold.
