The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Sheer cope. Ukraine has unlimited supplies of advanced weaponry from NATO and can impose more costs on Russia than Russia can inflict. Russia, meanwhile is running low on stocks of PGM and will struggle to replace these under sanctions. Plus the number of recruits for the Russian army must be diminishing fast, and there is little left to deploy from elsewhere in Russia.

M777/Excalibur combo with advanced counter-battery radars is going to make life short but interesting for Russian artillery in the very near future, if it isn't already.

A war of attrition only favours Ukraine/NATO.
Are you aware of that the Ukrianans/Russians has artillery guns those outrange the M777, if we just stick to the easy to check facts ?

And generally, without air force, and air superiority from the Russian side , how the Ukrainans could be in better position from attrition side ?
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Sheer cope. Ukraine has unlimited supplies of advanced weaponry from NATO and can impose more costs on Russia than Russia can inflict.

Lol no, they don't. There is a reason they are getting mostly old WarPac stuff and the "advanced" stuff they are getting is mostly early variants close to the expiration date.

There is also the fact that NATO agreed that arming Ukraine can't be done at the expense of the security of its own members, so once they run the depots dry, Ukraine is out of luck as Europe doesn't really have the manufacturing capability to resupply both NATO and Ukraine.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Sheer cope. Ukraine has unlimited supplies of advanced weaponry from NATO and can impose more costs on Russia than Russia can inflict. Russia, meanwhile is running low on stocks of PGM and will struggle to replace these under sanctions. Plus the number of recruits for the Russian army must be diminishing fast, and there is little left to deploy from elsewhere in Russia.

M777/Excalibur combo with advanced counter-battery radars is going to make life short but interesting for Russian artillery in the very near future, if it isn't already.

A war of attrition only favours Ukraine/NATO.

A few points...
- No one has 'unlimited' supplies of anything, Ukraine, Russia, or NATO. We already see that Germany, Canada, even USA is running out of stock of missiles. With the global logistics situation as it is, manufacturing new stock is already having issues.

- M777 and Excalibur is not an enchanted weapon. M777's primary reason for existence was to provide heavy fire support for USMC and be light and compact enough to be shuttled by C-130 and Chinooks. Besides that, it doesn't provide any great advantage over existing 155mm pieces other than being new, and at this point, proven. As a towed piece, it has a big disadvantage of not being able to shoot and scoot with the same effectiveness as an SP Gun. It is still really heavy (despite it's raison d'etre) and not simple for gun crews to unhook and put into action.

- M777 deployed in a counter battery role means it is firing from a relatively fixed position (this is how it was deployed in Afghanistan with HALO Acoustic Counter Battery system). This is suitable in a defensive role further from the front line, but becomes increasingly vulnerable to attack helicopters, drone strikes, etc. closer to the front.

- We already see 203mm 2S7 Soviet-era artillery deployed by Ukrainian army, does M777/Excalibur really outdo it? Probably not.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
It is being reported that the Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian naval aviation was KIA while piloting a Mi-14(or Mi-8 according to other sources), shot down "by a fighter".

No other details are given but might be a good guess he was involved in the Snake Island failed raid.

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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
There are rumors circulating on russian telegram channels(take that as you will) that the US is pressuring Ukraine to achieve something big enough, even if symbolic, to spoil the Victory Day parade. Maybe this raid on Snake Island has something to do with it.

Also, apparently one of the Brimstone missiles delivered by the UK failed and was caught intact though.

View attachment 88467
I just noticed in another picture that the manufacturing date on the missile is 2004, so this missile was old enough to drink alcohol and vote in most of the world.

brimstone2.jpg
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It’s perplexing why so many people think Russia would do a mass mobilisation or just what such a mobilisation would even achieve.
Yes, Russia has 200-250K dedicated in Ukrainian war? Isn't that like 20-25% of the entire active personnel (1 million total)? What I don't understand is, why doesn't Russia throw more warm bodies from the professional active personnel (1 million total)? Mass mobilization of low-quality conscripts is not desirable, but Russia has plenty of active servicemen to draw from?

(BTW, if you say "to keep 80% in reserve in preparation for NATO intervention", then all I have to say is.... that's what nukes are for)
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
It’s perplexing why so many people think Russia would do a mass mobilisation or just what such a mobilisation would even achieve.

Yes, ideally you want more bodies in the fight, but the unspoken caveat is that those bodies would know how to fight. Not really a given when you are mass mobilising conscripts.

It’s very obvious that Putin was very stung by all the incompetence on show during the early stages of the war. So why would he then do a mass mobilisation to throw even more, far worse quality troops into the grind to guarantee exponentially more and worse public screw ups?

That’s doubly damaging because he will be creating much more bad publicity and also his very own ‘Vietnam’ where a broad and deep spectrum of society becomes deeply and personally invested in wanting the war over as soon as possible since they themselves and/or their friends and family will be called up to fight and die in said war. If Putin was going out of his way to destroy his own domestic political and public support and build up opposition, he would be hard pressed to find a better thing to do. Which is why this was always wet dreaming by western ‘experts’ from the start.

I instead think Putin has settled on a much simpler and brutally effective strategy - attrition on an industrial scale, which the Zelensky regime is eagerly aiding him in.

The biggest problem in modern combat is less manpower when you have firepower dominance, but targeting and post war-phase policing. If the enemy refuses to meet you on the field and instead preserved much of its fighting strength and melts into the general population/environment to then do insurgency attacks, you are like prize boxer fighting a swarm of mosquitoes. Each of your mighty blows can kill many, but still the overwhelming majority of your force is wasted or cannot be effectively brought to bare.

That was the smart, long-term play with many historical and recent successful examples. But instead the Reddit Facebook generation needed instant gratification so the Ukrainians needed to fight the Russians head-on to keep the media war ‘on track’.

This, and the willingness of Zelensky and NATO to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian gives Putin the unexpected option of applying attritional warfare to an almost unprecedented degree. I fear that by the time the Russian military grinds its way to Kiev, there won’t be enough fighting age Ukrainians left to mount an effective defence or insurgency.

This means that as long as the Russians can keep their K-D ratio high enough, they can win this war without needing to call up additional fodder-grade troops or worry too much about post-conflict policing or counter-insurgency.
I think it will help a lot to have more conscripts for holding captured areas, borders, freeing more professional troops.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Information about Snake Island, source is the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

I used an automatic translator from Russian to English, I quote:

Russian Defense Ministry reports ВСУ (Armed Forces of Ukraine) attempt to recapture Snake Island, three Su-24 and one Su-25 shot down

In recent days, the Ukrainian military has made a titanic effort, trying to recapture from our military a small island of Snake near the Black Sea coast.

On Monday evening, Major General Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, spoke about how the ВСУ (Armed Forces of Ukraine) had unsuccessfully solved this task. According to him, starting from May 7, the Ukrainian General Staff, with the direct participation of advisers from the United States and Great Britain, planned a major provocation on the direct instructions of Vladimir Zelensky, the ultimate goal of which was to capture Snake Island.

During the last two days, several desperate attempts have been made to land Ukrainian air and sea troops there. The fact is, the general explained, that this generally small piece of land is important to ensure control of the northwestern part of the Black Sea. "As a result of competent actions of the unit of the Russian Armed Forces located on the island, the Ukrainian provocation was thwarted. The enemy suffered heavy losses," Konashenkov said.

He noted that four Ukrainian planes, three Su-24 bombers and one Su-27 fighter jet, were shot down during the repulse of the attacks in the Zmeinoi area. In addition, it managed to hit three Mi-8 transport and combat helicopters with landing on board and a Mi-24 fire support helicopter.

And for another two days in the area of the island shot down 29 Ukrainian drones, including eight strike "Bayraktar TB-2". "At the same time, four Bayraktar drones were shot down this afternoon," the general said.

Also in an attempt to land on the night of May 8, three armored Ukrainian assault boats of project 58181 "Centaur" with servicemen of the Ukrainian Navy on board were destroyed.

Thus, Konashenkov concluded, as a result of Zelensky's thoughtless provocation, more than 50 saboteurs were destroyed at sea and on the coast only during the landing and attempts to gain a foothold on the island. Moreover, 24 bodies of dead Ukrainian servicemen remained on the shores of Snake Island.

It will be recalled that a small garrison of this island surrendered to our troops without resistance at the very beginning of the special military operation. While Ukrainian servicemen were being taken to the Crimea, trumpets were sounded in Kiev about the heroic death of Zmeiny's defenders. Zelensky even rewarded them all posthumously.

Later, when the truth emerged, the Ukrainian authorities tried their best not to mention the island and its defenders.

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