EU is enemy of Russia. This is just an excuse for EU to blockade Russia. No way EU will lift blockade of Kaliningrad. Russia can forget about it. Don't forget, it was EU that funded Euro Maidan riot in 2013 / 2014 that ousted president Yanukovych.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
EU is enemy of Russia. This is just an excuse for EU to blockade Russia. No way EU will lift blockade of Kaliningrad. Russia can forget about it. Don't forget, it was EU that funded Euro Maidan riot in 2013 / 2014 that ousted president Yanukovych.
My man, wasn't Lithuania the one blocking the Kalinigrad and only its land-route ?
If it's EU block then Baltic sea would be closed and it's a WW III scenario.
Not surprised the Russians withdrew from Snake Island, it made no sense hold on to it. It'll be interesting if to see if Ukrainians actually garrison it, because they will be in the same position except worse.
I don't even think it was part of a EU/US plan, I think Lithuania implemented it unilaterally and they have sort of gone along with it for now.
You think Russia is going to sit around and let its people starve? If it continues it'll just lead to a war with NATO.
I don't even think it was part of a EU/US plan, I think Lithuania implemented it unilaterally and they have sort of gone along with it for now.
If the Ukraine has artillery with long enough range to reach the Island, then holding it becomes untenable.
By the same token, if the Ukraine tries to put personnel and equipment on the Island, they will simply suffer the same fate as previous attempts have done.
It means that now the Island is a real No-mans land.
I can see only one reason why the Russians would want to occupy and put Air Defenses on the Island and that would be to give enhanced cover for an Amphibious landing to the nearby coastal area of Southern Odessa Oblast.
The fact that they have withdrawn suggests to me that it means no such operation is in the offing for the foreseeable.
Now I have to run away and hide before @SAC reads this.......
By the same token, if the Ukraine tries to put personnel and equipment on the Island, they will simply suffer the same fate as previous attempts have done.
It means that now the Island is a real No-mans land.
I can see only one reason why the Russians would want to occupy and put Air Defenses on the Island and that would be to give enhanced cover for an Amphibious landing to the nearby coastal area of Southern Odessa Oblast.
The fact that they have withdrawn suggests to me that it means no such operation is in the offing for the foreseeable.
Now I have to run away and hide before @SAC reads this.......
Exclusive: EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad
June 30, 2022
I was also thinking Odessa is no longer on the roadmap in foreseeable future now that Snake Island is evacuated.
I also agree, Snake Island is now virtually indefensible with long range weapons and anti-ship missiles donated by NATO. It is unlikely Ukraine will fare better, but it appears Russia is consolidating and focusing exclusively on Donbass and Southeast, and Odessa isn't on the roadmap.
On Wednesday's Guanqi they discussed Turkey getting everything it wanted (minus F-35) in its list of conditions before they would accept Sweden and Finland into NATO.
Mr Su reckon US would've only agreed to this if Whitehouse is despite and throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. That be the case they may soon (like this week or next week) unilaterally remove the Chinese tariff.
Were that to happen China could accept this win now, and after some period of time also reduce tariff for export to US, this was described in mahjong terms as a "屁胡" the most basic and lowest paying winning hand.
Alternatively China could hold out and wait for a potential 1929 style depression in the US. This would allow China to get a much bigger win by cutting the chive on the US. This would be a "自摸".
In their opinion Putin may be going for a similar thing. He's going for a big win, bigger than even just the Ukraine battlefield. If he drags this war out until winter Europe may end up in so much trouble that he could extract all sorts of concession out of them. Alternatively if the depression arrive before winter the US might just decide to sacrifice EU and per-emptively trigger an economic crisis in Europe and use the opportunity to feast on their body. In which case you're going to see three vultures all busy gobbling up anything of value in Europe.
Translated onto the battlefield if that's true we should continue to see Russia take the lowest risk moves and continue their slow and steady advance. Don't expect any big encirclement.
I don't think Russia will be able to take Odessa despite that being a major goal unless they trade another major goal like Dniepro or Kharkiv. It would be a long salient along the coast to stretch from Mykolaiv to Odessa, and it would be very difficult to defend the logistics train. On the other hand Mykolaiv is close to Kherson and would not be so difficult.
I think they will take Mykolaiv in the end and hold that as their southwest edge to consolidate Kherson and take back the shipyards, but will stop from Odessa. So they won't be able to landlock Ukraine, but they'll 100% control the Dnieper since they have the dams, the mouth and the source, turning Kiev from an inland port to just a random city on a river.
It would be better for Russia to attack Zhaphorizhzhia city and Dniepro after Mykolaiv as the most realistic goals before the war ends. That would shorten their defensive lines to the minimum and be up against natural borders, and further consolidate control over the Dnieper.
Mykolaiv and Odessa are very important for Russia. If they are under Russian control, this will allow a land route with another self-proclaimed pro-Russian republic, Transnistria, which is part of the Republic of Moldova.
There are Russian peacekeepers (1,500 people) in Transnistria after the war in the early 1990s. There is a limited Russian military contingent guarding Europe's largest Cold War-era weapons cache, located near the Transnistrian village of Kolbasna. There are about 20,000 tons of ammunition in the Kolbasna military depot and it is guarded by a task force of Russian troops. Moldova has repeatedly stated that the Russian military presence in the region must be put to an end. Despite the tension, however, the conflict has been "frozen" for decades and there has not been a single serious incident so far.
There are Russian peacekeepers (1,500 people) in Transnistria after the war in the early 1990s. There is a limited Russian military contingent guarding Europe's largest Cold War-era weapons cache, located near the Transnistrian village of Kolbasna. There are about 20,000 tons of ammunition in the Kolbasna military depot and it is guarded by a task force of Russian troops. Moldova has repeatedly stated that the Russian military presence in the region must be put to an end. Despite the tension, however, the conflict has been "frozen" for decades and there has not been a single serious incident so far.