The War in the Ukraine

Keep on hitting those Kiev regime howitzers. The fewer there are, the less shelling on Donbas children.

GodRektsNoobs said:

So, how many "changes to the war" have you been parroting so far? Fifth or sixth? It's time for self-reflection, dude. Your contribution to this thread is even less useful than Ukrainian twitter bots.

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Well the Ukrainians have forced the Russians from Snake Island today after failing before, so it does show that they have new long range strike capabilities that the Russians can't suppress with counter-battery fire. In that case I would be vindicated. In fact the Ukrainians may even land on the island and fully take it in the near future.

Russia value lives, not like the Kiev regime which does not value the lives of its own soldiers who fight and die for it. This is the difference between Russia and the Kiev regime. I do applaud Russia for leaving that miserable rock to focus on Donbas.

Temstar said:

While yes, I think Russians would prefer to inflict casualty when possible, someone pointed out to me that letting troops escape on foot in small groups isn't a total loss. You still get all the heavy equipment, plus the troops who do manage to run are that much more likely to run next time they come under pressure, and when they do that could be infectious to others. Successful retreat can be habit forming very quickly.

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Mariupol is the perfect counter example to illustrate why the Russians are no longer bothering to make the biggest dumplings possible and leaving obvious escape routes. If you trap too significant an enemy force in an urban environment, it can be really time consuming to eat that giant dumpling.

It’s so much easier to hit enemy forces on the run in open fields and on roads than in city fighting. So you leave them an opening and hit them as they are running. Once the dumpling filling becomes small enough to eat comfortably and quickly, you close the dumpling and eat it.

This is actually a really good case study on why sometimes less is more.

Another potentially useful counter example is the infamous highway of death from the first gulf war. That was such a concentrated wholesale slaughter it revolted the world and effectively ended the gulf war by making it politically impossible for the coalitions to continue fighting.

If Putin is really playing the long game and for all the marbles as I suspect, he actually would not want a similar wholesale slaughter risking ending his special military operation prematurely.

Personally I think Ukraine is really screwed because the only thing the two warring sides can agree on is the need to fight to the last Ukrainian it seems.

gadgetcool5 said:

Well the Ukrainians have forced the Russians from Snake Island today after failing before, so it does show that they have new long range strike capabilities that the Russians can't suppress with counter-battery fire. In that case I would be vindicated. In fact the Ukrainians may even land on the island and fully take it in the near future.

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Not really. Small territories like airports and such have changed hands back and forth. Your assertions that the tides of war may reverse are never vindicated as the big picture continues to be a steady trends of Russian gains.

This is an essentially permanent war. Even after freeing all of Donbas, the war is expected to continue for decades if not centuries at the very least. Russians play the long game. To play the long game, you must make decisions strategically. Retreat from Snake island is actually a good move in the long run.

gadgetcool5 said:

In that case I would be vindicated. In fact the Ukrainians may even land on the island and fully take it in the near future.

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and God help them if Russians decided to flatten everything there. whatever system Ukrainian may place there will have same problem as Russians... No scout and shoot.

It will essentially a No man's land.

manqiangrexue said:

Not really. Small territories like airports and such have changed hands back and forth. Your assertions that the tides of war may reverse are never vindicated as the big picture continues to be a steady trends of Russian gains

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What do you expect? They are grasping on straws. Disappear whenever Russia moves further in and reappears to gloat when Russia does something else. Still waiting for that imminent counteroffensive on Mariupol to save the nonexistent azovs.

There is speculation that after negotiations between the EU and Russia, the Snake Island has been exchanged for an unblocking of the transport blockade of Kaliningrad and transport to Kaliningrad should be restored next week.

But this is just speculation, I have no source.

kokole said:

There is speculation that after negotiations between the EU and Russia, the Snake Island has been exchanged for an unblocking of the transport blockade of Kaliningrad and transport to Kaliningrad should be restored next week.

But this is just speculation, I have no source.

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Honestly doesn't sound that farfetched.

Although as it stands, I kinda think we can wait for Guanqi, since they should probably discuss snake islands, and might also know a bit if what you said is the case.