The War in the Ukraine

Stealthflanker said:

Well that depends on how competent they're trained for it. Ukraine has done well so far with Emcon to hide whatever remaining from their Air defense. as we see Ru Mod Briefing on S-300 or Buk Battery blown so late.

Patriot may last just as long as they maintain same amount of discipline.

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What good is hiding S-300 or Patriot away in some hole? The whole point for their existence is they have to be in the fight shooting down enemy aircraft. How many aircraft is RuAF losing these days?

If Ukraine actually start to use AA you will see how quickly they start to get wiped out from Russian SEAD missions.

Overbom said:

720 killed + (probably triple of that in wounded). RIP

This past week, Ukraine casualties have doubled or tripled in comparison to last month. It increasingly seems to me that these casualties are unsustainable and we may be approaching a point where Russia would be making rapid advances against untrained Ukrainian troops rushed to the front-lines to fill in the gaps.

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One interesting but predictable evolution of these figures is change the ratio of dead to destroyed armour.

They are now essentially just throwing conscripts at the front in civilian vans and not even bothering to repaint them.

Civilian vans vs artillery barrage and you can easily see why the numbers of dead and wounded are skyrocketing.

Temstar said:

What good is hiding S-300 or Patriot away in some hole? The whole point for their existence is they have to be in the fight shooting down enemy aircraft. How many aircraft is RuAF losing these days?

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They dont hide. they wait for opportunity, a better opportunity to fire as they're no good when Russian blow the 5N63 or the MPQ-53/65. They will only radiates at good opportunity. Which is why we always see S-300P battery got blown very late in this war.

and 5N63 have features that making it very hard to suppress in the first place. like Low sidelobe.

Temstar said:

If Ukraine actually start to use AA you will see how quickly they start to get wiped out from Russian SEAD missions.

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Well i see them in MOD Briefing. It's just that the notion they still have operational S-300 stands the fact that they do a good Emcon.

Stealthflanker said:

They dont hide. they wait for opportunity, a better opportunity to fire as they're no good when Russian blow the 5N63 or the MPQ-53/65. They will only radiates at good opportunity. Which is why we always see S-300P battery got blown very late in this war.



Well i see them in MOD Briefing. It's just that the notion they still have operational S-300 stands the fact that they do a good Emcon.

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It’s easy to have good EMCon when you have untouchable NATO assets giving you 24/7 situational awareness and when is the perfect moment to turn on terminal engagement radar to take a shot.

It would literally be a different game if they hard to reply on their own assets for active scanning that would be subject to direct Russian kinetic attack.

But even with that ridiculous and essentially unique tactical advantage, we are still seeing minimal Russia aircraft losses and lots of Ukrainians SAMs getting killed.

Although in this context, Patriots might have a significant advantage over legacy Soviet gear since they could use CEC to engage Russian aircraft without needing to do terminal guidance themselves. That removes the need for the SAMs to actively emit at all. But the big question would be whether NATO is willing to risk doing that and what Russia’s reaction will be if they did.

plawolf said:

Although in this context, Patriots might have a significant advantage over legacy Soviet gear since they could use CEC to engage Russian aircraft without needing to do terminal guidance themselves. That removes the need for the SAMs to actively emit at all. But the big question would be whether NATO is willing to risk doing that and what Russia’s reaction will be if they did.

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They are not. Patriot is TVM (Track Via Missile) Which a shoot-off from SARH. meaning that terminal illumination, command generation for datalink and uplink to missiles in flight have to be done by the MPQ-53/65 Itself. If US Delivers PAC-2 then when Russians blown the MPQ-53/65... the battery is gone.

In theory however the ERINT that smol Patriot missile people often call "PAC-3" can use such CEC scheme as it use Active Radar Homing, which relieve needs of having terminal illumination so it can receive guidance from somewhere else.

Yommie said:

If the US sends 100 AH-64D and 100 Patriot PAC 3 to Ukraine it could potentially make an impact. Helicopters can land anywhere and fly low enough to avoid detection by ground based radars. Patriot PAC 3 can target high flying jets which can pose a threat to helicopters. But I guess Americans are just a bunch of penny pinchers. Won't even spend 100 billion dollars to people who fight and die for them.

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I'm sorry but that sounds like a terrible plan.

The Patriot batteries are okay, they will be needed when S-300s start running out. But helicopters will get absolutely murdered by Russian air defences from the level of S-400 all the way down to humble manpads.

100 attack helicopters is insanely expensive and they will barely be able to do anything. Certainly, Ukraine cannot use them to push in coordination with tanks, because 1. Ukraine can't support the formations against Russian atgms and air defence 2. Ukraine likely doesn't even have nearly enough tanks at all.

That leaves the force of 100 AH-64D to act as rear line atgm platforms, shooting atgms from behind Ukraine lines, able to flee at ultra low altitudes out of there in case the Russians shoot back. That job can in fact be done by a truck that has atgms mounted on it. The only potential advantage is that the AH-64D could have better guidance, assuming NATO doesn't have multiple mode guideble missiles like China has.

Ukraine right now needs artillery and mortar pieces along with shells for them. MLRS too. All this somewhat helps to mitigate Russia's firepower advantage.

plawolf said:

One interesting but predictable evolution of these figures is change the ratio of dead to destroyed armour.

They are now essentially just throwing conscripts at the front in civilian vans and not even bothering to repaint them.

Civilian vans vs artillery barrage and you can easily see why the numbers of dead and wounded are skyrocketing.

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I did notice an increase in use of civilian vehicles to transport troops. I initially thought it was to make detection harder but it must be because Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's troop carriers

Biscuits said:

What is really telling negatively about Ukraine's situation is how we hear very very little about partisans in Russian captured territory helping Ukraine in the war.

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East had enough proRussians to rebell vs Ukraine openly. And now even those that had proUkraine views had left area due to fear of retaliation for terror that they had conducted for 8 years(and locals do hate being human shileds). You can see tensions between civilians and Ukrainian military in the east even in western sources with Ukrainian army grunts complains about local separatists sharing information with Russian forces.

I actually not sure how Ukraine would be able to establish defense after battle for Donbass, cause it was prepared for 8 years defensive positions. It take time to establish such defensive lines.

MortyandRick said:

My thoughts exactly. It just reinforces the fact that Europe relies on the US to make their foreign policy decisions with Macron telling Putin that he has already gotten the permission from Biden to book a meeting.

This transcript really shows how powerless Macron was.

He warned Putin not to react to provocations. He KNEW Ukraine was was going to attack.

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Yep, pretty much everyone knew Ukraine was about to attack. LOL They poke the bear. simple. Now they are pouring money into Ukraine pit and also trying to go against China with new 600B belt-and-road wanna be (this is 3rd time, by the way). They try to create enemies night and day where there is any real good reason. Instead of win-win they prefer *lose-lose*

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine ( June 27, 2022)

Part 1 (read part 2)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

On June 26, Russian Aerospace Forces launched 4 high-precision air-based missiles at the workshops of Artyom missile corporation located in Shevchenkovsky district of Kiev. This enterprise produced ordnance for Ukrainian multiple rocket-launching systems (MRLS).

According to live recording data, all of the 4 missiles have reached the target. The facility has been neutralised. Civilian infrastructure of Kiev has not been affected by high-precision armament.

Kiev regime attempted to intercept Russian high-precision missiles by the means of air defence deployed in the city. Ukrainian S-300 and Buk-M1 air defence system crews had launched over 10 air defence missiles.

Due to lack of interoperability between the launching ramps of the air defence systems and electronic facilities deployed in residential areas, 2 S-300 air defence missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Buk systems. One of the intercepted air defence missiles has presumably fallen down to a residential building.

Ukrainian command is trying to stop the chaotic escape of Ukrainian servicemen near Lisichansk amid the success of Russian army within liberating Donbass.

A Right Sector Nazi barrier unit was sent to hold the personnel of the first battalion from 72nd mechanised brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Volcheyarovka. Russian artillery has eliminated this unit.

The Ukrainian troops involved in operation towards Lisichansk are no longer controlled. Commander of 115th Independent Mechanised Brigade of the AFU who deployed its command post in the rear area has lost control over his units that caused losing 80 percent of manpower and about 70 percent of equipment of 138th Battalion from this brigade during operations.

On June 26, Russian units eliminated 2 sabotage and reconnaissance groups of mercenaries formed by 14 militants during the combats that took place 3 km from Lisichansk oil refinery (Lugansk People's Republic).

The first group was international and consisted of citizens from various European countries. The second was formed by mercenaries only from Georgia who were parts of the so-called Georgian Legion.

This armed group is mostly composed of criminals. The eliminated Georgian mercenaries were involved in the brutal torture and murder of Russian servicemen near Kiev in March this year.

Russian Defence Ministry has information about each mercenary involved in torturing and murdering out servicemen. We have found and punished them.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine ( June 27, 2022)

Part 2 (read part 1)

❗️ Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at military facilities located in Ukraine.

High-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised the base of 106th Battalion from 63rd Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU near Visunsk (Nikolayev region). Over 40 Ukrainian servicemen and 12 units of military equipment have been eliminated.

Attacks have also resulted in the elimination of AFU manpower and military equipment in 27 areas, including those that formed part of the Right Sector near Lisichansk, as well as those of Azov and Kraken near Kharkov.

5 AFU command posts and 3 munitions, missile and artillery armament depots have been neutralised near Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev region) and Novodruzhesk (Lugansk People's Republic).

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 24 command posts, artillery and mortar units in 58 areas, as well as manpower and military equipment in 304 areas.

Within the counter-battery warfare towards Donetsk, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised: 3 Grad MRLS plattoons near Avdeyevka and Dzerzhinsk, a plattoon of M-777 155-mm howitzers near Konstantinovka, 2 Giatsint 152-mm howitzer plattoons near Kalinov and Artyomovo, as well as 2 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system plattoons near Ocheretino and Novolugansk that had been launching attacks at Donetsk and othe cities of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Russian air defence means have destroyed 10 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Noviy Burluk, Arkushino, Kurulka, Semyonovka, Chervoniy Shakhtyor, Ternovaya (Kharkov region), Chernobayevka (Kherson region), Shcherbakovo (Zaporozhye region) and Petrovenki (Lugansk People's Republic).

2 Tochka-U tactical missiles have been intercepted near Kakhovka (Kherson region), as well as 1 MRLS rocket over Snake Island.

In total, 215 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,373 unmanned aerial vehicles, 350 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,830 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 684 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,025 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,870 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en