The War in the Ukraine

FADH1791

Junior Member
Registered Member
I doubt it’s 50,00. The real number is actually about 25-30,000 fighters in the salient. For whatever reason Ukraine sent lots of fighters from Kharkov, Zaparoche,and elsewhere from West Ukraine. On top of it there is a large number of foreign fighters flocking there with SBU/Ukraine special forces commandos. But the real fight is Bakmut. It’s looking like Bakmut could be the next place of collapse. If Bakmut falls the fighters in Lyschansk are effectively surrounded and have no way out. And no way supplies can enter. Signs are showing Ukrainian resistance in Bakmut is buckling.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (June 19, 2022)

▫️Offensive towards Severodonetsk is being successfully developed. Units of People's Militia of the Lugansk People's Republic supported by the Russian Federation Armed Forces have liberated the settlement of Metyolkino.

▫️Several units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are abandoning the operation area due to low moral and psychological condition, as well as lack of munitions and logistic supply. Thus, a plattoon of the 1st company of the 1st battalion from the 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade that had been defending near Lisichansk left heavy armament and abandoned its position.

▫️Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at military facilities located in Ukraine.

At 12.30 PM, Kalibr high-precision long-distance sea-based missiles were launched at a command post of the Ukrainian troops near the village of Shirokaya Dacha (Dnepropetrovsk region) at the moment when there was being held a working meeting of the commanders of Aleksandriya operational-strategic group.

▫️The attack has resulted in eliminating more than 50 generals and officers of the AFU, including those of the General Staff, the Kakhovka group, airborne assault troops and units that operate towards Nikolayev and Zaporozhye.

▫️At 08.20 AM, Kalibr high-precision long-distance missiles destroyed 10 M777 155-mm howitzers and up to 20 armoured combat vehicles delivered by the West to the Kiev regime over the past 10 days that were located in a transformer plant in Nikolayev.

At 07.20 AM, high-precision air-based missiles neutralised an echelon of personnel, armament and military equipment of the 1st battalion from the 14th Independent Mechanised Brigade that arrived from Vladimir-Volynskiy to the operation area in Donbass.

▫️The attack at the disembarkment point near Gubinikha railway station (Dnepropetrovsk region) has resulted in eliminating more than 100 servicemen of the AFU, 30 tanks and armoured combat vehicles.

▫️At 02.05 AM, the AFU 56th Mechanised Infantry Brigade manpower and military equipment have been neutralised near Selidovo (Donetsk People's Republic). The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 20 militants, including foreign mercenaries that formed part of the abovementioned brigade, as well as 2 combat vehicles equipped with Grad multiple rocket-launching system, 10 infantry combat vehicles and armoured personnel carriers.

▫️7 Grad system plattoons and 1 artillery plattoon have been neutralised at their firing positions towards Donetsk within counter-battery warfare.

✈️Operational-tactical and army aviation have destroyed 4 artillery missile and munitions depots near Maksimilyanovka, Avdeyevka, Zelyonoye Pole and Georgiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as 1 launching ramp of Buk-M1 air defence missile system near Seversk (Lugansk People's Republic).

Missile troops and artillery have neutralised 22 command posts, 48 artillery units at their firing positions, the AFU manpower and military equipment in 123 areas.

▫️An attack launched by Iskander operational-tactical missile system at Kharkov tank reparation plant has resulted in destroying 2 launching ramps of Uragan multiple rocket-launching system.

▫️Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer considerable losses caused by counter-battery warfare. A serviceman from the 22nd Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU captured near Peremoga has told that the artillery units involved in operation towards Kharkov had lost 380 servicemen, including 90 who resulted dead over the past 10 days.

➡️ Part 2

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #DailyReport
@mod_russia_en

⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (June 19, 2022)

Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery over the past 24 hours have resulted in eliminating more than 400 nationalists, 10 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 11 field artillery mounts, 11 launching ramps of multiple rocket-launching systems and 28 special vehicles.

Russian air defence troops have shot down 1 Su-25 airplane of the Ukrainian Air Force near Chervonnaya Dolina (Nikolayev region).

▫️In addition, 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Zavody, Chervonniy Shakhtyor, Dementiyevka, Glubokoye (Kharkov region), Krinitsa (Kherson region), Popasnaya (Lugansk People's Republic) and near the Snake Island.

▫️3 Tochka-U tactical missiles have been intercepted near Novozvanovka and Novoaleksandrovka (Lugansk People's Republic), 2 projectiles launched by Uragan multiple rocket-launching system near Bolshiye Prokhody (Kharkov region) and Chervonnaya Dolina (Nikolayev region).

In total, 207 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,249 unmanned aerial vehicles, 344 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,683 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 562 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 2,043 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,715 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

❗️Big losses of the AFU in manpower force the Ukrainian command to involve unprepared personnel in combats, despite their lack of necessary skills in using armament and military equipment.

▫️At 01.30 PM, 2 Su-25 assault fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force launched an attack at the positions of its units near Shirokoye (Dnepropetrovsk region).

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Eliminated more than 50 generals? Does Ukraine have that many generals?
 

SAC

Junior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
This attack if true could only be the result of HUMINT right? SIGINT even if available should only reveal there's a lot of traffic in the area, won't be able to reveal the exact nature of the target unless there are eyes on the ground?
Could be SIGINT, either solely or as part of a multisource assessment.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This attack if true could only be the result of HUMINT right? SIGINT even if available should only reveal there's a lot of traffic in the area, won't be able to reveal the exact nature of the target unless there are eyes on the ground?
Regular GSM calls aren't encrypted in any way so a nation state should be able to listen in.. Russians have posted audio of intercepted telephone calls from foreign militants so I assume they can to any Ukrainian officer who is dumb enough to use their personal mobile to make a phone call in a base.

A lot of Russian missile strikes have come purely from social media posts. It's been largely locked down now, but a few do seem to leak out. Like I saw a video on twitter of Ukrainians been trained in Kiev stadium the other day, that was quickly removed.
pro-russian twitter guy claims russians have access to white phosphor nvg; following tweet has an image that shows the difference between green phosphor and white phosphor nvg
Meh. Phosphor NVG is commercially available, including from China.

Most of the thermal gear I see Russians posting is from Hikvision, maybe that's why Americans aren't happy with them.
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
So. I see the kessel has been closed. The Ukrainian army has collapsed from mass desertion. Ukrainian ammo has run out completely and the Russian army has swept the Ukrainians with their sticks and stones away. Right?

Just like the idea the Russian army's morale is so bad they have collapsed and refused to fight? Or the Russians have run out of precision guided munitions? Right?

I strongly suggest taking a step back and considering a bit of skepticism in all the things posted online, claimed or otherwise about this war.

That some of you are gloating over Oryx not properly reporting Ukrainian losses, well, gosh, I guess everyone here on the forum was totally not saying that from the start? I'm shocked! Shocked! Shocked! I tell you!

I am also rather disappointed by members of this forum suggesting prisoners of war should be abused. Captured Russians should not be abused. Captured Wagner mercenaries should not be abused. Any captured ProRussian Syrian volunteers (where are they btw?) should not be abused. Any captured Ukrainians should not be abused. Any captured pro Ukrainian volunteers should not be abused. That the mods here allow it is wildly surprising.

Now then.

The logistics of the Russians is interesting. We know the T-62s are in service around Donetsk now. Some are claiming it is with the DNR. However, why would they need to pull T-62s? There are supposedly 3k T-80s in reserve for the Russians. That should have been enough by itself to replenish the Russian losses 4x over and does not include the 400+ T-90s or 2,000+ T-72s. 5,400 tanks that could be used before the T-62s should be warmed up. Supposedly. And when less than 800 have been lost so far? hmm. Something doesn't sit well. The claims of 'you don't need the best for rear echelons' doesn't sound right either. Especially when...

Russian forces are using the BMP-1 now. Proof?


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Between the two - T-62 and BMP-1 - I have suspicions about what is going on. I doubt many here would listen other than to claim it is merely I am casting shade on the Russian military. I don't think so. These suggest logistics strain, very nontrivial strain. Not going to collapse tomorrow strain, but serious all the same.

Severodonetsk still hasn't been taken, not entirely. Looks like we will have another Mauripol situation.

The Russians have started something in the Kharkov region. Counterattacks? More?

The Ukrainians appear to making some progress in the Kherson region as well. How much is hard to tell.

This war is far, far from over. The Russians ought to have been able to pull off some blitzkrieg still work, but have not been able to. The Ukrainians do not appear to have saved up any equipment for an armored thrust of their own. I really don't see any huge changes in the last month and, tbh, I don't see any coming in the next.
 
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