So. I see the kessel has been closed. The Ukrainian army has collapsed from mass desertion. Ukrainian ammo has run out completely and the Russian army has swept the Ukrainians with their sticks and stones away. Right?
Just like the idea the Russian army's morale is so bad they have collapsed and refused to fight? Or the Russians have run out of precision guided munitions? Right?
I strongly suggest taking a step back and considering a bit of skepticism in all the things posted online, claimed or otherwise about this war.
That some of you are gloating over Oryx not properly reporting Ukrainian losses, well, gosh, I guess everyone here on the forum was totally not saying that from the start? I'm shocked! Shocked! Shocked! I tell you!
I am also rather disappointed by members of this forum suggesting prisoners of war should be abused. Captured Russians should not be abused. Captured Wagner mercenaries should not be abused. Any captured ProRussian Syrian volunteers (where are they btw?) should not be abused. Any captured Ukrainians should not be abused. Any captured pro Ukrainian volunteers should not be abused. That the mods here allow it is wildly surprising.
Now then.
The logistics of the Russians is interesting. We know the T-62s are in service around Donetsk now. Some are claiming it is with the DNR. However, why would they need to pull T-62s? There are
supposedly 3k T-80s in reserve for the Russians. That should have been enough by itself to replenish the Russian losses 4x over and does not include the 400+ T-90s or 2,000+ T-72s. 5,400 tanks that could be used before the T-62s should be warmed up.
Supposedly. And when less than 800 have been lost so far? hmm. Something doesn't sit well. The claims of 'you don't need the best for rear echelons' doesn't sound right either. Especially when...
Russian forces are using the BMP-1 now. Proof?
Between the two - T-62 and BMP-1 - I have suspicions about what is going on. I doubt many here would listen other than to claim it is merely I am casting shade on the Russian military. I don't think so. These suggest logistics strain, very nontrivial strain. Not going to collapse tomorrow strain, but serious all the same.
Severodonetsk still hasn't been taken, not entirely. Looks like we will have another Mauripol situation.
The Russians have started something in the Kharkov region. Counterattacks? More?
The Ukrainians appear to making some progress in the Kherson region as well. How much is hard to tell.
This war is far, far from over. The Russians ought to have been able to pull off some blitzkrieg still work, but have not been able to. The Ukrainians do not appear to have saved up any equipment for an armored thrust of their own. I really don't see any huge changes in the last month and, tbh, I don't see any coming in the next.