The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
There are claims Ukraine has hit three oil rig platforms out in the black sea. If true, seems kind of a dumb move in sense that it will probably have more repercursions for Ukraine than Russia, specially if an oil spill happens

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So they are clearly using what they have to destroy non military targets. These crude oil platforms will not change the course of the war they will just do a mess with oil spills... A fuel reserve near the border would be a good targets but not these...
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Ukrainians at this point are lashing out like petulant children who lose a game. They know they are losing and there is little they can do so they are just doing random attacks at civilian areas with no military significance.
How is hitting non military targets helping their war effort? This just invites more escalation from Russia.

They've now started to behave like jihadists who live for headline suicide missions
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
So. I see the kessel has been closed. The Ukrainian army has collapsed from mass desertion. Ukrainian ammo has run out completely and the Russian army has swept the Ukrainians with their sticks and stones away. Right?

Just like the idea the Russian army's morale is so bad they have collapsed and refused to fight? Or the Russians have run out of precision guided munitions? Right?

I strongly suggest taking a step back and considering a bit of skepticism in all the things posted online, claimed or otherwise about this war.

That some of you are gloating over Oryx not properly reporting Ukrainian losses, well, gosh, I guess everyone here on the forum was totally not saying that from the start? I'm shocked! Shocked! Shocked! I tell you!

I am also rather disappointed by members of this forum suggesting prisoners of war should be abused. Captured Russians should not be abused. Captured Wagner mercenaries should not be abused. Any captured ProRussian Syrian volunteers (where are they btw?) should not be abused. Any captured Ukrainians should not be abused. Any captured pro Ukrainian volunteers should not be abused. That the mods here allow it is wildly surprising.

Now then.

The logistics of the Russians is interesting. We know the T-62s are in service around Donetsk now. Some are claiming it is with the DNR. However, why would they need to pull T-62s? There are supposedly 3k T-80s in reserve for the Russians. That should have been enough by itself to replenish the Russian losses 4x over and does not include the 400+ T-90s or 2,000+ T-72s. 5,400 tanks that could be used before the T-62s should be warmed up. Supposedly. And when less than 800 have been lost so far? hmm. Something doesn't sit well. The claims of 'you don't need the best for rear echelons' doesn't sound right either. Especially when...

Russian forces are using the BMP-1 now. Proof?


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Between the two - T-62 and BMP-1 - I have suspicions about what is going on. I doubt many here would listen other than to claim it is merely I am casting shade on the Russian military. I don't think so. These suggest logistics strain, very nontrivial strain. Not going to collapse tomorrow strain, but serious all the same.

Severodonetsk still hasn't been taken, not entirely. Looks like we will have another Mauripol situation.

The Russians have started something in the Kharkov region. Counterattacks? More?

The Ukrainians appear to making some progress in the Kherson region as well. How much is hard to tell.

This war is far, far from over. The Russians ought to have been able to pull off some blitzkrieg still work, but have not been able to. The Ukrainians do not appear to have saved up any equipment for an armored thrust of their own. I really don't see any huge changes in the last month and, tbh, I don't see any coming in the next.
Since T-80 line was mainly worked on by Ukrainian SSR and Russia has never updated them, it's likely that the ones possessed by the Russian Federation are not in good condition. The T-62 line has been sold to different countries and there's upgrade packs which make it a decent legacy light tank.

Later export T-62s >>> moldy waterlogged basic T-80s with defect electronics. The latter likely doesn't even have working gun stabilizer.

I do think Russia is currently trying to tap into their stores of T-72 and T-80, but rushing them out will be not of much use.
 

NukedOne

New Member
Registered Member
Those T-62s were refurbished and upgraded to be sent to Syria. They are not state-of-art tanks but fairly modern and have elevation angle advantage over T-72s. So it makes sense to use them in urban combat.
As for T-80s, there are two variants, one with diesel engine which were produced in Ukraine during Soviet times (and some of those are still fielded by Ukrainian army) and another with gas turbine which was produced in Omsk, Russia and currently in use by Russian army.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
An good debate between Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson.

I think Scott Ritter has walked back a lot from his original assessment, although some of the things he says don't seem to be very consistent. One moment he's claiming the Ukrainians are the best soldiers in Europe, the next he's calling them corrupt civilian killing thieves who are ready to stab anyone in the back.

He also doesn't seem to understand that giving Ukraine the equivalent of a year of Russia's military budget isn't the same as the Ukraine achieving parity. Even excluding US MIC corruption and the PPP difference between America and Russia, Russia's military inventory was procured over decades of higher military spending, including during Soviet times when it outspent America.

The one thing I haven't heard any American analyst talk about is the massive intelligence failure this whole campaign has been. It's worse than 9/11.

Not only have they misjudged Russian intentions over the past few years, they've misjudged Russian capability. Russians have clearly been stockpiling missiles and ammunition, bringing tanks and heavy artillery out of storage. Things like that don't happen on a whim, they take years to set up. I think the Russians have been planning this since 2014.

At least with 9/11 you can say an attack of that type was unprecedented, watching the Russians is literally what the CIA was created for.

Heads should be rolling at the CIA and MI6, especially since the former has a budget that is bigger than most nations military budget. But I bet nothing will happen.
 
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