The War in the Ukraine

generalmeng

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now, while losing large tu95 is an expensive loss, but those were already built, so its not losing money, but more earlier retirements.

what if we ask the question, if cheap inexpensive FPV drones can take out expensive asset like this, it would work in the reverse. for example, in a war between russia and nato, russia can also employ the same strategy to take out expensive B2.

rather than looking at this as a massive win for UAF, it is not really a massive win, because russia can do the same in reverse. this is more an reality check for the world, that old large military system, are not longer financially feasible in modern fpv war. increasing asymmetrical nature of modern drone style warfare is going to be a headache for any major military power.

this is a huge PR win and moral boost for UAF. but the reality do not change, because russia will continue to gain ground on land, and ukraine is bleeding human resources. ultimately, people live on the land claim the land.
 

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
Now, while losing large tu95 is an expensive loss, but those were already built, so its not losing money, but more earlier retirements.

what if we ask the question, if cheap inexpensive FPV drones can take out expensive asset like this, it would work in the reverse. for example, in a war between russia and nato, russia can also employ the same strategy to take out expensive B2.

rather than looking at this as a massive win for UAF, it is not really a massive win, because russia can do the same in reverse. this is more an reality check for the world, that old large military system, are not longer financially feasible in modern fpv war. increasing asymmetrical nature of modern drone style warfare is going to be a headache for any major military power.

this is a huge PR win and moral boost for UAF. but the reality do not change, because russia will continue to gain ground on land, and ukraine is bleeding human resources. ultimately, people live on the land claim the land.
I still don't get why Russia is not doing more with drones. I know they have already deployed many, but they could easily up the amount to made Ukraine look puny.
 

Hermes

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Now, while losing large tu95 is an expensive loss, but those were already built, so its not losing money, but more earlier retirements.

what if we ask the question, if cheap inexpensive FPV drones can take out expensive asset like this, it would work in the reverse. for example, in a war between russia and nato, russia can also employ the same strategy to take out expensive B2.

rather than looking at this as a massive win for UAF, it is not really a massive win, because russia can do the same in reverse. this is more an reality check for the world, that old large military system, are not longer financially feasible in modern fpv war. increasing asymmetrical nature of modern drone style warfare is going to be a headache for any major military power.

this is a huge PR win and moral boost for UAF. but the reality do not change, because russia will continue to gain ground on land, and ukraine is bleeding human resources. ultimately, people live on the land claim the land.
Those UAVs got really lucky due to the planes being exposed out in the open. Had they been inside the closed hangars, the loss might have been avoided. So NO! The reverse card will only work as long as NATO's planes are out in the open.

This was an extremely stupid step by the Ukraine group. Zelensky doesn't care about the people and Ukraine is a cannon fodder for the NATO. They will try to weaken Russia to the last Ukrainian.

Objectives achieved:

- Russia engaged, weakened
- Slow recovery/production/replacement on Russian side
- No wartime dent to NATO countries economy
- No casualties to NATO countries in terms of Manpower, inventory
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Based on the few accounts of the trucks involved so far, the truck drivers didn't even know what was going on. It was basically hey, please move this cargo container from point A to B, and point B is a gas station outside of a airbase and the container has a hidden compartment on top with a layer of drones.

You don't need too many ethnic Ukrainians in country to assemble an op like this. Moving containers around the country is an exceedingly common task which basically cannot be policed, it will be exceedingly expensive and not really feasible for the Russian state to suddenly install x-ray stations all over the country.
It is not that you need many ethnic Ukrainians, it is that now, to the Russians, even a single one cannot be trusted and any freedom allowed to them is a potential risk. This sort of thing, or fear of such, is what causes genocidal reprisals to happen.

There is historical precedent for this. In Rwanda, the Hutu president's plane being shot down resulted in a genocide against the Tutsis. And of course, Hitler's paranoia about Jewish backstabbing both historically in WW1 and during the course of WW2.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Those UAVs got really lucky due to the planes being exposed out in the open. Had they been inside the closed hangars, the loss might have been avoided. So NO! The reverse card will only work as long as NATO's planes are out in the open.

This was an extremely stupid step by the Ukraine group. Zelensky doesn't care about the people and Ukraine is a cannon fodder for the NATO. They will try to weaken Russia to the last Ukrainian.

Objectives achieved:

- Russia engaged, weakened
- Slow recovery/production/replacement on Russian side
- No wartime dent to NATO countries economy
- No casualties to NATO countries in terms of Manpower, inventory
Russia was party to the START treaty which requires many strategic bombers to be parked in the open so that they can be verified by satellite imagery without needing on-site visits.

The START treaty was only suspended, but not terminated, in 2023, which is not enough time to harden all airbases, and I'd imagine one in central Siberia would not be a priority for hardening.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Those UAVs got really lucky due to the planes being exposed out in the open. Had they been inside the closed hangars, the loss might have been avoided. So NO! The reverse card will only work as long as NATO's planes are out in the open.

This was an extremely stupid step by the Ukraine group. Zelensky doesn't care about the people and Ukraine is a cannon fodder for the NATO. They will try to weaken Russia to the last Ukrainian.

Objectives achieved:

- Russia engaged, weakened
- Slow recovery/production/replacement on Russian side
- No wartime dent to NATO countries economy
- No casualties to NATO countries in terms of Manpower, inventory
Escalatory surprise attacks tend to succeed, case in point China can probably wipe out most of US navy at port in one day with a surprise container ship ASM attack, a VLCC usually holds >500 containers on top deck and China operates enough to basicaly put 8 missiles on every docked USN ship on the planet. Being operated by China also means there's no risk of inspection.

Of course this doesn't happen not because China can't do it but because the war that will follow.
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
One lesson is that airfields should have some buffer zone away from civilian activities like highways, if there is at least few hundred meters of buffer zone then you have enough time for surveillance system to spot and engage intruding drones. This is a problem for China where a lot of airfields are way too close to civilian activities.

But then airfields are not the only high value targets for this kind of attacks, there seems to be no good general solutions
 

Nautilus

New Member
Registered Member
The simple answer is, Russia is ethnically diverse and the degree of ethnic profiling required - to basically round up ethnic Ukrainians - is an extreme step and politically unfeasible.
Russia can't stop this. It's not like SBU operatives are carrying signs that say "I'm Ukrainian". Neither is this Gattaca with DNA readers at every checkpoint. The people who organised this likely look and sound exactly like native Russians. Trying to monitor the movements of every Russian is a fool's errand. Far better would be to establish exclusion zones aroune military targets, install anti-drone weaponry, and build hardened structures.
 
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