Izyum and Liman are no longer that far from Russian lines. Russians are already on the outskirts of Kupyansk. Chasiv Yar is about to fall. Ukrainians just lost a massive pocket south of Konstantinovka in the Kleban Byk area. The highway connecting Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka has not only been cut but is overrun.
You realize that Ukraine no longer has any chance on taking back Crimea and the rest of Kherson, Zaporozhye and South Donetsk. This area is the one area that's most important to NATO because securing the naval bases opens Russia's southern flank and control of the Black Sea. It's the reason why the Summer Offensive was at this areas. All the gains taken in the Summer Counteroffensive of 2023 has not only been rolled back, but the Russians are now on a huge net positive in South Donetsk, and are nearly in the Dnipetrovosk border area, with DRGs already reaching the border.
Major fortress cities have fallen, which presented a massive defensive line, starting with Mariupol, Popasnya, Severodonetsk, Soledar, Bakhmut, Klesheevka, Avdiivka, Novomikhailovka, Toretsk, Niu York, Ugledar, Velika Novoselka and so on. What happened to Zelensky's pledge to take back all these cities, towns and settlements?
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has lost every major battle involving a city or a town, and every battle involving a settlement, except on the Kursk region. But the Kursk region has been completely retaken, and the material and human cost to Ukraine is much greater than Bakhmut or the Summer Counteroffensive.
The West did not come out unscathed. The Russians were able to test their AD and obtain valuable information on systems as ATACMS, HIMARS, Storm Shadows, SCALP, Patriot, JDAMs, SAMP, and so on. That information is likely to have been passed to the Chinese. In response, none of the Western AD has any adequate response to the Iskander, which itself is at the bottom of Russia's ballistic missile chain. Western AD has shown to be completely inadequate against glide bombs and drones. The Chinese would be happy to know their entire ballistic missile approach is validated. Not to mention, the Western AD missile inventory ended up being severely depleted. For the US, missile inventory that was being saved in event for a war against China ended up being depleted. We also seen how many Western land systems failed to turn the tide, leading to embarrassment and loss of image. The inventory of M777 artillery for example got pretty much wiped.
Economically, Europe is devastated. The loss of cheap energy and resources from Russia meant the looming end of Europe's manufacturing base especially the car industry. The German car industry is on the brink. Trying to ramp up defense spending while being welfare states is going to put severe strain on deficits and inflation. On top of this, Europe as a financial industry has been heavily tarnished, and we have seen the rest of the world has moved their wealth away. In a few short years, the EU's trajectory as a major economic power has been reversed.
