The War in the Ukraine

Abominable said:

The Moroccan guy should be able to get off. He was a student in Ukraine when the invasion happened and joined the Ukrainian army.

As for the other two, they're both illegal combatants and deserve everything that they get. I'd rather they were given a long spell in the gulag compared to the firing squad, but that is the prerogative of the competent DPR authorities.

There is a good life lesson here. If you don't want to be executed don't travel to a country with the death penalty and then commit a crime punishable by the death penalty.

There was a third western militant caught who was loitering around Bucha at the time of the massacre there by his own account. Turns out he had a notebook on him with the numbers of dead civilians in it. Now he really is f**ked.

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A student visa is usually not a residence visa, therefor he is not eligible to join the war as Ukrainian army personnel according to the highlighted item. So he is a mercenary.

From wiki,
Art 47. Mercenaries

1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
2. A mercenary is any person who:
   • (a) is especially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
   • (b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
   • (c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
   • (d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
   • (e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
   • (f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

taxiya said:

A student visa is usually not a residence visa, therefor he is not eligible to join the war as Ukrainian army personnel according to the highlighted item. So he is a mercenary.

From wiki,
Art 47. Mercenaries

1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
2. A mercenary is any person who:
   • (a) is especially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
   • (b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
   • (c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
   • (d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
   • (e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
   • (f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

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The key words are those highlighted above. They are not mercenaries unless they were getting paid well above what equivalent level Ukrainian soldiers are paid. "and" means that all 6 conditions must be met to fall within the definition.

taxiya said:

A student visa is usually not a residence visa, therefor he is not eligible to join the war as Ukrainian army personnel according to the highlighted item. So he is a mercenary.

From wiki,
Art 47. Mercenaries

1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
2. A mercenary is any person who:
   • (a) is especially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
   • (b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
   • (c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
   • (d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
   • (e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
   • (f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

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I think resident is to be taken literally and in reference to the type of visa held. Anyway he is under the jurisdiction of Russia (or more precisely the DNR) so it's up to them who is a legal combatant or not.

About the recent revelations about the third western merc, it's been confirmed by a Russian official:


No doubt the scrote was part of a MI6 intelligence operation.

supersnoop said:

Actually this was discussed before in April or so, Biden had made a speech blaming China on shortages of supplies for manufacturing Stingers and Javelins.

It’s like China sanctioned themselves to create a chips shortage?

Hold on now…

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Also from the article, this older equipment is the most commonly used for MEMS chips.

I believe the term from soccer is own-goal

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The chip shortage affects mainly mass consumer products like cars and toasters. Military chips only represent a minimal percentage of the total demand. If like they say a javelin needs 250 chips and mems to double the production to 5000 javelins a year would be like 1250000 chips or roughly like 7000-10000 8 inches wafers per year. I think skywater technologies alone can produce 12000 8" wafers per month and I think just one of TI fabs can produce 25000 8" wafers per month. There is not chip shortage for military chips, there is a chip shortage for commercial civilian chips.


I think they are finding out that the Ukraine situation is becoming a bottomless money pit and that they can't throw to Ukraine dozens of billions dollars every few months.

Ukraine has reported that they are suffering between a 100 and 150 killed per day and between 500-800 wounded. Those are staggering numbers and despite Ukraine doubling the size of its armed forces since the start of the war are long term unsustainable.

kokole said:

According to an article in The New York Times U.S. lacks a clear picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy

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Lol disinformation, misinformation from the champion practioners: Military-Security-Industrial Complex.

They know more or have a clearer picture about Russian operations, personnel, equipment losses, etc. than to the Ukrainian forces whom they have been training, arming, and using for almost a decade? Only a severe mentally challenged and gullible America number 1 types will accept such ludicrous excuse for analysis.

sheogorath said:

A shipment of T-80BV being moved near Moscow. A lot of them.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534785951440027648

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Russia is running out of tanks they said.

Atomicfrog said:

Kalibr can reach nearly all the west to the north if they are on the line of these naval missiles extreme range. I would not play with fire. It depend of the target... south west no problems, north west not sure that Kalibr can reach all. Missiles in Belarus can reach them tho.

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Russian Kalibr variants have more range than export versions. The Russians fired the Kalibr from the Caspian Sea to hit targets in Syria at one point.

RottenPanzer said:

Kiev request Isreal in purchasing Iron Dome, this would certainly wouldn't happen at all, unfortunately for Ukrainian folks

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The Iron Dome would be useless against cruise missiles. The system was designed to counter home made rocket artillery and perhaps artillery shells. It would counter Smerch rockets and the like but not cruise missiles. For that you would need David's Sling. And perhaps against the Iskander even David's Sling wouldn't be enough and you would need the Arrow system. So you basically would need all the layered missile defenses Israel has. On an area the size of Ukraine. Not cheap.

It would also give Russia the chance to test and reverse engineer the most advanced missile defenses on the US side. And the information would likely be passed to Iran and other countries.

tokenanalyst said:

The javelin is an quite old military equipment and although that kind of equipment does require some specialty chips and sensors like mems accelerometers and bolometers but that doesn't seem out of reach for a fab like Skywater Technologies or Texas Instruments.
...
So its seems some bullshit here and they don't want to say they run out of money for Ukraine already.

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The Javelin is really old. Those chips were probably made in factories and manufacturing processes which no longer exist. The existing contracts were probably being served with stockpiled chips. If you want to massively ramp up production you will likely need to redesign the whole thing. You would be better off making a new missile system. Javelin is obsolete. Next generation anti-tank missiles like MBDA MMP are already in service in Europe.

tokenanalyst said:

The chip shortage affects mainly mass consumer products like cars and toasters. Military chips only represent a minimal percentage of the total demand. If like they say a javelin needs 250 chips and mems to double the production to 5000 javelins a year would be like 1250000 chips or roughly like 7000-10000 8 inches wafers per year. I think skywater technologies alone can produce 12000 8" wafers per month and I think just one of TI fabs can produce 25000 8" wafers per month. There is not chip shortage for military chips, there is a chip shortage for commercial civilian chips.

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I think they are finding out that the Ukraine situation is becoming a bottomless money pit and that they can't throw to Ukraine dozens of billions dollars every few months.

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Only questioning for my own knowledge here
Isn't wafer demand independent of end user? DOD would still have to compete with consumer industries for that capacity no?
Like Whirlpool isn't putting in 5nm ARM CPU to control the washing machine...
I know a lot of automotive control chips are running at 28nm and above.

gelgoog said:

Russian Kalibr variants have more range than export versions. The Russians fired the Kalibr from the Caspian Sea to hit targets in Syria at one point.

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About the same range than shooting from 200 km of the coast of Ukraine into the north west. Most of Ukraine can be targetted but north west is more than the 3M-54 is able to. The subsonic 3m-14 is able to reach it, the one without the supersonic warhead booster.

supersnoop said:

Only questioning for my own knowledge here
Isn't wafer demand independent of end user? DOD would still have to compete with consumer industries for that capacity no?
Like Whirlpool isn't putting in 5nm ARM CPU to control the washing machine...
I know a lot of automotive control chips are running at 28nm and above.

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Maybe for some commercial chips like Intel chips and commercial microcontrollers. But for some specialty chips like the ones in the javelin my guess is that they have premium access to ensure that they get enough critical chips, for example Skywater works mostly with the military.