The War in the Ukraine

Ukraine had to recall 100,000 artillery shells amid complaints they'd get stuck in launchers and weren't exploding

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry signed a multi-billion dollar contract in early 2024 for the production of 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells through the state-owned company Ukroboronprom, which subcontracted European companies (from Lithuania and Sweden) and a Ukrainian company (Ukraine Armor Company), the latter responsible for the production of mortar shells. The funds for the contract came from financial aid from NATO countries. There are reports of corruption and payment of large sums in bribes to officials of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Ukroboronprom and military personnel.

“Dead Souls” in the Armed Forces: Why the Army Is Growing, but There Are Not Enough Fighters

Ukraine has an army of almost a million soldiers, but there are not enough people at the front, most of the military is in rearguard positions.

With corruption rampant in the procurement of equipment (see the mortar shell case) and the deployment of personnel, I think it is time for NATO financiers to start holding the highest level of Ukrainian politics accountable, starting with Zelensky.

How many Ukrainian soldiers have died?

According to The Economist, 480,000 Ukrainians have been killed or seriously injured (unfit to return to combat) since the beginning of the war. That would be 80,000 dead and 400,000 disabled.

X-101 flying over the Kherson region.


Ukrainian convoy got drone ambushed.


An X-101 gets shot down by air defenses as it approaches a Ukrainian energy facility. Debris of the missile however still caused lights out over the city. Kyiv.


Glide bombs arrive on AFU positions on the Donetsk front.


FAB-3000 arrives on Ukrainian positions in Volchansk.


Kaliber or X-101 missile intercepted with cluster warhead exploding.


Abrams tank and Bradley found destroyed somewhere in the Donetsk.


FAB arrives in Kramatorsk.


Russian cruise missile struck a substation that brings in electricity from the EU.


Humvee with a SAM system on top gets struck by an FPV drone.


Ukrainian stronghold in Olgovka, Kursk region, gets dumped by a TM-62 mine down the hatch.


Marder gets hit by a Prince Vandal drone on the flank, and a Ukrainian tank also gets hit by a Vandal.


Russian cluster munitions and MLRS strikes Razdolnye. Razdolnye has been taken by the Russians, using the 40th Marine Brigade and elements of the 36th Army.


Aviation NARS attack on Ukrainian positions in South Donetsk.


French VAB APC hit by an FPV drone from the Kaira unit.

Strikes all over Ukraine in the last 24 hours.

Canadian officer training Ukrainians suddenly died under mysterious medical circumstances. The Internet bloggers think he was killed in a Russian missile strike. "..

"It is with a heavy heart that Joint Task Force Ukraine announces the loss of one of our soldiers, Lieutenant Colonel (LCol) Kent Miller", Canadian authorities said.
"LCol Miller was serving on the staff of NATO's Supreme Allied Command Europe as part of Operation UNIFIER when he succumbed to medical complications on November 25, 2024".
LCol Miller was an engineering officer with 24 years of experience in the Canadian Forces, commanding the 41st Combat Engineers Regiment in Alberta, and assigned to SHAPE as planner and coordinator."


Russian MoD reports retaliation strikes. "On November 25, as a result of a missile attack on the headquarters of a unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) «Kraken» in the city of Kharkov, up to 40 foreign specialists, mainly from the USA», were killed."


Russians repel massive Ukrainian drone attack on the Rostov region. Drone attacks are usually meant to deplete AD missiles so this might be preceding an ATACMS or Storm Shadow attack.


Gerans attack the port area of Odessa. These usually target incoming munitions and weapons shipments from the West.


Russian D-30 howitzer blows apart a Ukrainian pickup doing a rotation. A Ukrainian pickup was trying to pickup soldiers for a rotation and a 122mm artillery round narrowly missed it. The soldiers managed to embark, the pickup did a quick u turn, but as it was going to speed away, the D-30 howitzer landed a direct hit. Not going to post the video link anymore as it appears the hit sent the unfortunate soldiers flying into different directions. This underscores both the accuracy and rate of fire of the vintage "Thirty" howitzer that has made it a combat legend and both a threat and a favorite on both sides.

Ukraine developed their own tactical missile Grom-2. The launcher of one is spotted near Odessa and intended to strike Crimea. The Russian UAV spotter transferred targets coordinates and an Iskander-M takes out the launcher. There's some disagreement if the launcher is a Grom-2 if not a Patriot or a Neptun antiship missile, as these latter two are also based near Odessa. But if indeed this is a Grom-2 then it's a historic ballistic to ballistic missile kill.

From @rvvoenkor, another body exchange was made, this time 48 Russians to 502 Ukrainians. ---

Russia and Ukraine exchanged military bodies — 48 for 502

↓Proportions again indicate terrible losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
397 from the Donetsk direction;
24 from Lugansk;
64 from Zaporozhye;
17 - from morgues on the territory of the Russian Federation.
↓On November 8, 37 Russian fighters were also exchanged for 563 Ukrainian ones.
↓The total number of already identified bodies of soldiers and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stored in the morgues of southern Russia awaiting exchange is more than 4,000, the media wrote.

About 150,000 Ukrainians left Ukraine for Russian controlled territories.


Russians captured Vorovskoe and Razdolnye, the latter by the 40th Marines Brigade. With these captures the highway between Velikaya Novoselka and Kurakhovo has been cut.


Russians advancing in Kurakhovo and expanding from the city center.


Geran arrives and strikes in Kyiv.


A Russian FPV drone intercepted a Ukrainian Gray Wing attack drone.


Lancets take out a Leopard and a Ukrainian Grad system.


MSTA-S SPG hits and takes out an M777 in counter battery.


Successful Russian assault on the positions of the Ukrainian 25th Brigade, despite lead tank getting hit.

Tam said:

From @rvvoenkor, another body exchange was made, this time 48 Russians to 502 Ukrainians. ---

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Damn. That's 1200 Ukrainian bodies between the last 2 swaps. Crazy that Russia gave back the bodies of 10%+ of AFU's losses across the whole war in just a few days. Meanwhile with Russians getting 40 + 50 bodies back, it's unlikely the Kremlin will be able to bury most of its 700 000 losses (as sourced by highly reliable British intelligence) any time soon.

The frontlines would be frozen by a ceasefire, and a demilitarized zone imposed.

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Russia would get limited sanctions relief, and full relief only when a peace deal is signed that is to Ukraine’s liking

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A levy on Russian energy exports would pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction

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Ukraine would not be asked to give up on reclaiming occupied territory, but it would agree to pursue it through diplomacy alone.

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It accepts “this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office.”

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If this is the things Kellogg might suggest then it is already DOA. NATO soldiers patrolling the border, Russia funding the rearmament of Ukraine, delaying NATO membership until Putin leaves office. The Russians aren’t going to accept an dollar store version of Minsk 3.0

Index said:

Damn. That's 1200 Ukrainian bodies between the last 2 swaps. Crazy that Russia gave back the bodies of 10%+ of AFU's losses across the whole war in just a few days. Meanwhile with Russians getting 40 + 50 bodies back, it's unlikely the Kremlin will be able to bury most of its 700 000 losses (as sourced by highly reliable British intelligence) any time soon.

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They used to exchange for about 30-40+ Russian bodies for 200+ Ukrainian bodies, so going to 500+ is a huge step up.


Scottish merc fight for Russia.


Ukraine has a big desertion problem.


Russians send up another "weather satellite".


FPV drone operators of the 16th SPN takes out a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Krasnoliman direction, using said to be a Bulava drone.


Kozak-7 destroyed in the Toretsk direction.


More than 5 million refugees will leave Ukraine in the winter due to light and heating problems, a major problem for Western European countries.


Flying objects spotted over the Urals. Not missiles but we are in the midst of a meteor shower until January.


The 139th Assault Battalion raises the Russian flag over Razdolnye.


Ukrainian T-64BV tank and Bradley vehicles being struck by Vandal drones.


Loss of Pokrovsk will deprive Ukraine 60% of it's metallurgy.


A FAB-500 with UMPK is dropped.


Tornado-S strike with cluster munitions against a deployment area of Ukrainian FPV and UAV crews in Zhuravka, Kharkhiv region.


Swedish Pbv302 APC gets hit by a Russian FPV drone.

According to Ukrainian intelligence (GUR), more than 100 artillery systems, 100 KN-23/24 ballistic missiles and more than 5 million large-caliber ammunition were transferred from North Korea to Russia.

FriedButter said:

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If this is the things Kellogg might suggest then it is already DOA. NATO soldiers patrolling the border, Russia funding the rearmament of Ukraine, delaying NATO membership until Putin leaves office. The Russians aren’t going to accept an dollar store version of Minsk 3.0

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I think it’s a sign of just how entitled and out of touch with reality the west has become that all they do is engage in magical thinking that they will get whatever they want irrespective of who has the actual control of the situation.

This is the equivalent of little child bullies screaming ‘Time Out!’ after they start a fight with the wrong person and is getting their arses kicked; or YouTube IRL trolls screaming ‘It’s a prank bro!’ after committing assault against passers by and they respond.

The west just does what it always does when it wants something. Instead of offering an honest trade, they first create a problem and then offer to stop doing that in exchange for real concessions from the other side. Hence allowing western long range weapons to be used against Russia. And all the fake news about North Koreans fighting in Kursk as some sort of red lines being crossed first.

As with all bullies, appeasement doesn’t work. Giving in to their outlandish conditions will only make them want to make even more ridiculous demands. But Russia is constrained by its own hard power limit and also by the current limbo period before Trump takes office, since Biden seems to be in full active sabotage mode trying to create as many inherited problems for Trump as possible before he drifts off to dementia land for good.

I think Russia’s current strategy is to avoid at all costs any opportunity for Biden to declare article 5 while trying to limit NATO escalation as much as practical. But ultimately their ability to do so is massively constrained by the primary objective of preventing Biden from committing the US to a fight he won’t be around to have to win. Hence while Russia might bark extra loud now and not dare to actually bite, it would be a colossal mistake for Trump and his people to come into office thinking that’s the limit of Russian escalation options.

Thus while I expect the Russians to exercise maximum restraint until the inauguration, there is a high chance that they may go the other way and push back with excessive force at the first real provocation from Trump.

Although that is not to say Russia doesn’t have cards to play before then and a real curve ball might be to actually use the North Koreans, but not in the way most would assume of merely more boots for ground assault. So what happens if NK forces deploy to the southern theatre, and then directly attack a NATO member state’s forces openly, say a British AWACS over international waters off the Russian coast, claiming that the AWACS was acting as part of the kill chain against their troops, so they are acting in legitimate self defence. Is NATO doing to declare Article 5 on North Korea? Especially given the geography and the fact that NK has a mutual defence treaty with China?