The War in the Ukraine

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Some people have been claimimg Russia will peace out fast given the chance. All signs point to contrary. Russian is willing to give up land for better attrition. Willing to grind slowly to gain land at less casualty. None of these are useful for fast political leverage for negotiation. All aiming for complete destruction of enemy over long terms. Which is to say these are strategy of long haul. Perhaps demilitarize Ukraine was a lie, demilitarize NATO stockpile at favorable condition is the actual aim. If that is the case, war will go on for many years to go. It will not stop at US backing out. It will stop at entire western bloc giving up.

Another strategic goal is attrition of western economy at favorable rate vs Russian. By weakening western economy that insist on poor return financing of Ukrainian state, they will have less money available to attack Russia at more efficient means.

This could explain why Russia is adamant at making the war sustainable, even though intensify investment could yield faster tactical gains. Those gains were never the main goal. The economic attrition between two blocs is the actual battle. A poorer west enhance Russian security over long term. This is more valuable than another piece of Ukrainian turf.
Pretty much what China did to USSR through Sino-Vietnamese conflict that lasted for 12 years (in conjunction of Afghan war) until the collapse of USSR. Sustainable atrrition of resources of the enemy and its backers. Back then, China relied on west for technology, market access and natural resources while China export products to finance the war. Today Russia export oil and gas to China to finance the war while gaining Chinese industry capacity. It will take as long as needed until the collective west break into pieces, we are looking at another ten years or less.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is an RBMK i.e. a Chernobyl type power station.
It does not have the structural barriers that modern nuclear reactors built post 9/11 have. The reactor building is not reinforced. The building ceiling can be easily penetrated with explosives and the reactor can be hit.

The Kursk NPP used to have four reactors. Two reactors i.e. Kursk 1-2 are in the process of shutdown and are not operational. They were replaced with Novovoronezh II 1-2. Kursk II 1-2 are supposed to replace the operational Kursk 3-4, in advanced state of completion, but the power plant is not finished yet.

Novovoronezh II and Kursk II are VVER type. They have two reinforced concrete domes (external and internal) plus steel containment so they are much more robust against attack.
 
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Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Footage has been published of a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber attack, presumably with an ODAB-1500 vacuum bomb. The video was filmed in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. There is no official ODAB-1500 bomb, but the presence of the bomb was confirmed by Colonel General Alexei Kim in March 2024, reporting at a meeting to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on the use of such an aerial bomb. It is possible that the ODAB-1500 bomb was created in Russia in the 2000s. The first ODAB-500 bombs were produced in the 1970s by the Bazalt Federal State Unitary Enterprise, a development of the GSKB-47 design bureau. The ODAB-1500 aerial bomb is activated sequentially during combat use: first, the active substance is sprayed, and then it oxidizes in the air with ignition and subsequent detonation. Based on the data on ODAB-500, the radius of destruction of the thermobaric charge of the ODAB-1500 bomb is not less than 500 meters, with a pressure of 120 atmospheres at the epicenter of the explosion. The damaging factor of the ODAB-1500 bomb is thermal radiation and a jump in atmospheric pressure. A large area of destruction allows to reduce the cost of the ammunition by reducing the requirements for accuracy of impact.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russians are now less than 4km away from Seversk. Social media silence and everyone distracted by other events, allows the Russians to pull off another sneakrieg.

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Ventilation shaft of a mine near Vodayne gets Krasnopoled.

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Destroyed M1132 ESV with LWMR trawl destroyed in the Kursk region. Engineering and demining version of the Stryker which the Ukrainians have a limited number of.

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Nona-SVK of the Black Leopards are working in the Pokrovsk direction. Self Propelled mortars are a very underrated weapon throughout the campaign especially in heavy urban and complicated terrain battles.

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FABs hit a Ukrainian hanger used to store vehicles in the Pokrovsk direction.

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Destroyed IVECO truck.

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The road to Sudja is the road of death. Destroyed Roschel Senator.

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Ukrainian recovery vehicle taken out by a Lancet.

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Ukrainian Tunguska AA system taken out by a Lancet.

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Russian MoD formally announces the capture of Ugledar.

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FABs land on the deployment point of the AFU 106th Territorial Defense Brigade in Sumy, destroying vehicles and killing dozens.

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FAB-3000 arrives on a Ukrainian ammo depot behind Ugledar.

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FABrication in the Kursk borderland.

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M777 howitzer gets knocked out by an X-UAV missile from an Orion UAV.

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New Ukrainian towed 155mm howitzer Bogdana-BG enters production. The gun from the Bogdana SPG using the base of the Hyacinth-B.

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New BMP-3 crews undergoing training.

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Pantsyr S1 takes out a Ukrainian UAV.

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M-46 field gun takes out a Ukrainian platoon support point.

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
116 civilians recovered from the basements in Ugledar. Humanitarian assistance is provided.

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Another ODAB-1500 arrives on Volchansk.

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Another abandoned Roschel Senator in the Kursk region.

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Geran attack took care of this power facility in Dnipropetrovsk.

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Lancets take out two electronic warfare stations, one on a pickup and another on top of water tanks.

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One of the Russian flags raised in Ugledar.

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FAB arrived on a Ukrainian deployment points in Chasiv Yar.

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Geran impacts on the port of Ishmael.

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Ukrainian AA goes off as Gerans raided Kviv.

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Night arrivals of FAB-1500 at Volchansk plant.

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Probably a FAB-3000 landing on the Kursk border area.

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There was a video where two BTR-82A of the 810rd Marine Brigade ripped apart 19 AFU vehicles in the Kursk region with 30mm but I have yet to review it being a long video.

Another FAB-3000 in the Kursk border area.

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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Seriously how is the situation in Kursk as of now, I don’t see much being reported about this in The media compared to before

Russians are slowly cleaning up the northernmost area of the salient. Lots of dive bombs and drones along most of the Kursk frontline. If I was Russia, I'd be trying to make my way towards Kurilovka, that's below Sudzha. Threatening to close the pocket is probably going to be the fastest way to force Ukrainians to withdraw from it. Even if they don't withdraw, with a land corridor that narrow, the only highway connecting the pocket to Ukraine can probably be FPV-droned 24/7 from both sides of the pocket. Which means Ukraine will have to make very unpleasant decisions.

This would require commitment from Russian forces and good coordination. That's not always available depending on the commander. Though I did hear that Dyumin is in charge of Kursk, so maybe that's why the fortunes of this frontline have changed in recent weeks.

Ukraine attempted to strike the Kursk NPP. Russians say their air defence shot 4 missiles down and that the station is still operating normally
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I remember how outraged Europeans and Americans were at the idea of a potential nuclear disaster. Surely they'll say something this time too.
 
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