The War in the Ukraine

T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
Some people have been claimimg Russia will peace out fast given the chance. All signs point to contrary. Russian is willing to give up land for better attrition. Willing to grind slowly to gain land at less casualty. None of these are useful for fast political leverage for negotiation. All aiming for complete destruction of enemy over long terms. Which is to say these are strategy of long haul. Perhaps demilitarize Ukraine was a lie, demilitarize NATO stockpile at favorable condition is the actual aim. If that is the case, war will go on for many years to go. It will not stop at US backing out. It will stop at entire western bloc giving up.

Another strategic goal is attrition of western economy at favorable rate vs Russian. By weakening western economy that insist on poor return financing of Ukrainian state, they will have less money available to attack Russia at more efficient means.

This could explain why Russia is adamant at making the war sustainable, even though intensify investment could yield faster tactical gains. Those gains were never the main goal. The economic attrition between two blocs is the actual battle. A poorer west enhance Russian security over long term. This is more valuable than another piece of Ukrainian turf.
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Pretty much what China did to USSR through Sino-Vietnamese conflict that lasted for 12 years (in conjunction of Afghan war) until the collapse of USSR. Sustainable atrrition of resources of the enemy and its backers. Back then, China relied on west for technology, market access and natural resources while China export products to finance the war. Today Russia export oil and gas to China to finance the war while gaining Chinese industry capacity. It will take as long as needed until the collective west break into pieces, we are looking at another ten years or less.
 
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