The War in the Ukraine

eduds6 said:

This is beyond unbelievable that people are seriously considering the russian missile and artillery munition stocks were compromised by this attack. Sometimes i seriously consider if people are looking at news critically and not consuming propaganda.

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Storage for Soviet era Grad, Uragan and Smerch stocks, along with Tochka-U, which the Russians were not using. Russians appear preferring to use fresh Iranian and DPRK MLRS stocks as well as the newer ones of their own, as they have a much lower defect rate or they'll blow up the launcher. The stuff the Russians would actually use would be in much smaller but highly distributed and decentralized nodes closer to the front, not nearly 600km in the front in the Baltics. I don't think much about it. It's going to pass like one of those propaganda blows where it sounds serious, but quickly passes into oblivion with zero effects on the battlefield short and long term.



ODAB-1500 hit on a Ukrainian PVD. Allegedly 40 killed and 5 vehicles destroyed.


Buildings occupied by Ukrainian troops struck by FABs in Kherson.


Ukrainian crew on a CV-90 tried to make a break for it to the Russian lines to surrender to the Russians but was hit by an ATGM from their own side. This happened in the Kursk region. The CV-90 was hanging a white flag.


US unimpressed with Zelensky's victory plan.


UN hall more than half empty during Zelensky's speech. The same hall would be full however when someone is condemning the Israelis for their attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.


RM-70 taken out with a missile attack on its hanger, likely an Orion attack. I believe RM-70 Vampires are modernized Grad systems with programmable GPS guidance, which can be problematic to the Russians if allowed to live. As seen here, MLRS systems betray their locations to UAVs by firing their rockets. The MLRS was taken out near Kharkhiv. RM-70s in this area have been blamed for civilian shelling on Belgorod, so the Russians consider this their personal revenge.


Times headline that the UK has nothing more to give to Ukraine. Empty stockpiles are likely the excuse for what is an increasing domestic and political reluctance to support Ukraine in the UK.


On top of refusing NATO entry to Ukraine, Zelensky's plans were shut down utterly.

MortyandRick said:

But then if many on telegram play up this loss, then wouldn't that also probably indicate that it was a serious blow? How would telegram play this to indicate that it wasn't a serious blow?

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If something's not actually a big deal, Russian telegrams tend to ignore it. A good example of this are incidents with the Black Sea Fleet actually. Things like the hit on the Kerch bridge, sinking of the Moskva, the strike on Rostov-On-Don, so on and so forth were denied for a fairly long time until it was no longer refutable.

On the other hand, there were quite a few incidents where Ukraine claimed to have sunk a corvette or some sort of ship, sometimes even providing "evidence" of it (usually consisting of some footage or image), and the Russians generally ignored it. Yeah they would mention it, deny it, but they tended to move on. Only for a few days, weeks, months later to revisit it once there was conclusive proof that the ship was in fact undamaged.

It's not a precise science obviously, but after a while (a couple years at this point) you come to sort of get the "feel" of when things are true, plausible, fake, etc.

I'm curious that no one yet trying to estimate the loss from Seismic data. The following is my take


Toropetz attack apparently registered as 3x seismic events, with local magnitude of 3.6-3.7 with about 5 times of "shocks" for each events. From there one can then work out on the equivalent mb (Body wave magnitude) from that local magnitude data, then use the equations for predicting yield of explosions that are widely available.

Assumptions then could be established for the kinds of munitions there, which in my example as artillery shells. I feel it's reasonable as that's the bread and butter of Russian tactics, the kind of munitions there i assume as 152mm for MSTA.

Given the wide uncertainty tho "precise" and "accurate" prediction are hard, only "maximum and minimum" can be approximated based on those Seismic data. Which i concluded to be equivalent to at least 3000-19000 metric tonne worth of munitions from the yield prediction. Those would be equal to some 384000-245000 "equivalent 152mm" shell, which if one further extrapolate to the reported daily usage of artillery shells in front (10-80K/day), would make it equal to at least 5 days to 245 days or slightly about a year worth of Artillery shells.

The weaknesses of the assumption is of course that those seismic event might not necessarily be caused by explosion of single type of munitions. The other weaknesses is i use conversion factors which based on Indonesian earthquakes data, clearly our geological features are different to the one on Europe.

That one is impressive, that guy shrug off a precise FPV explosion.:


Incredible footage of a lucky dude.

Atomicfrog said:

That one is impressive, that guy shrug off a precise FPV explosion.:

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Incredible footage of a lucky dude.

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This makes me thinking that Ukraine might have been on the shortage of military grade explosives. The same situation also happened with Germany in the dying days of the Second World War.

X-51 Lancet takes out a P-19 Dunay radar, observed by a ZALA UAV. The use of the longer ranged Lancet suggests a target deeper in the front lines.


Motor Sich production facilities and workshops making UAVs hit by the newest version of FAB-500 with the more aerodynamic body and improved UMPK kit. Up to 250 UAVs of various type allegedly destroyed according to the Russian MoD.


Night arrivals of FABs in Zaporozhye. Directly related to the topic above.


Ukrainian PVD belonging to the AFU 14th Brigade in Kupyansk hit by a FAB.


Three FAB-1500 arrive on Ukrainian positions in Volchansk.


Both roads to Ugledar now in the grey zone.


Ukrainian T-64BV intercepted 4km northwest of Ugledar.


FAB-1500 arrives on a Ukrainian PVD in Seversk.


AFU defectees now exceed over 100,000.


MiG-31s firing Kinzhals. Targets in Kyiv and Starokonstanstinov airfield hit. Kinzhals aren't used unless you have some very high value targets. F-16s?


Russian MLRS hits Ukrainian ammo depot in Dibrovo.


Russian thermite 'Dragon' drone spewing flame somewhere near Ugledar.


Volchansk Bridge taken out by Krasnopol. Again. Bridge was previously destroyed but Ukrainians rebuilt it with pontoons.


Iskander takes out a BM-21 Grad. Isn't this an expensive missile to use on a Grad? Three possibilities to consider. First, this isn't just a Grad but a higher valued target. Second, mass production of Iskanders lowered the cost of the missile and the threshold of targets allowed is proportionately lowered. Third, this is a Tornado-S missile.


Krasnopol takes out a building where a Ukrainian assault group was hiding.


Vehicles of the AFU 61st Jaeger Brigade fall under Russian drones. An APC or MRAP is attacked by a Molniya FPV drone.

Stealthflanker said:

I'm curious that no one yet trying to estimate the loss from Seismic data. The following is my take

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It was one of the first things people suggested doing. There's a couple pro-Ukrainian guys on it, but they have yet to publish their findings. To be fair to them, they're probably trying to do a more precise job than napkin math.

Atomicfrog said:

That one is impressive, that guy shrug off a precise FPV explosion.:

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Incredible footage of a lucky dude.

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He would have for sure suffered some type of injuries from that blast. It might just not have been clear with that footage.

SlothmanAllen said:

He would have for sure suffered some type of injuries from that blast. It might just not have been clear with that footage.

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In the situation he was in, I found that a good outcome. Wrong payload against infantry ? maybe a shaped charge were main damage of the blast is in a small area.

A lot of footage that we see cutting after the blast could be misleading. Blast are most of the time impressive but the end result could be way less. Even more on vehicles were reactive armor are used but also makeshift protections that blow up looking like major damage.

There is some talk the Kinzhals were aimed at an F-16 deployment in Starokostyantyniv


The wife of an alleged F-16 instructor posted about losing her husband



Details on how the SIGINT variant of the Orlan can geolocate and track Ukranian units by their mobile devices