The War in the Ukraine

Pepper said:

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If we consider the possibility that the ammo dump explosion was nuclear, then this revision of their nuclear doctrine makes sense.

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Other important aspects of Russia's new nuclear doctrine:

An attack on Russia by a non-nuclear power, if supported by a nuclear power, will be seen as a joint attack and therefore liable to be responded to with nuclear weapons;

A massive air strike, even if carried out by a non-nuclear power, may be responded to with nuclear weapons;

If there is an attack on Belarus, Russia will respond to that attack with nuclear weapons;

If a non-nuclear power creates a "critical risk" to Russia's sovereignty, the response will be with nuclear weapons.

Basically, Putin has included everything Ukraine is doing at the moment as liable to be responded to with nuclear weapons.

Pepper said:

View attachment 136420
If we consider the possibility that the ammo dump explosion was nuclear, then this revision of their nuclear doctrine makes sense.

Click to expand...

Even if there was nukes stored there, nukes don't create a nuclear blast when they're destroyed. However, even losing a few old gravity bomb nukes probably does greatly escalate Russia's war footing.

Sinnavuuty said:

Other important aspects of Russia's new nuclear doctrine:

An attack on Russia by a non-nuclear power, if supported by a nuclear power, will be seen as a joint attack and therefore liable to be responded to with nuclear weapons;

A massive air strike, even if carried out by a non-nuclear power, may be responded to with nuclear weapons;

If there is an attack on Belarus, Russia will respond to that attack with nuclear weapons;

If a non-nuclear power creates a "critical risk" to Russia's sovereignty, the response will be with nuclear weapons.

Basically, Putin has included everything Ukraine is doing at the moment as liable to be responded to with nuclear weapons.

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These are some crazy news. Russia might very well do it, as the final blow to break Ukraine's spine.

Remember, the only other time nukes were used in anger, the nukes also didn't win the war. The whole IJA being encircled on the mainland and civilians suffering on the home islands from sustained bombing and shortages did.
The nuke was just the final straw, and a symbol for hopelessness for those already thinking the war was lost to flock to.

That's basically an established use for nukes.

Sinnavuuty said:

The Toropets ammunition depot has been known to Western intelligence since the 1960s, as can be seen in this report. It is no surprise that Ukraine was able to successfully attack it, whether with drones or missiles, but it was a great loss for Russia. The depot has recently undergone an expansion, monitored by US satellites. According to Ukrainian reports, this expansion was intended to store missiles. The damage caused by the Ukrainian attack was significant and could have an impact on both Russia's ability to conduct long-range strikes and its field artillery fire.

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Indeed. It's hard to say how significant the damage is in totality, or what types of munitions were ultimately stored here, but the many efforts to downplay this loss in Telegram channels suggests to me that this was actually a pretty serious blow.

Though I don't agree that it's "no surprise" that Ukraine was able to destroy this depot. Almost the entire depot is gone. The scale and near total success of this attack demonstrates a serious lapse in Russia's ability to defend important targets in its territory. If I was Belousov, I would make preventing this sort of thing a high priority. Especially in the light of other attacks on Russian depots.

Russia does have a tendency to learn from its mistakes fairly quickly, or at least far quicker than Western analysts expect it to. I always chuckle when in one breath they laugh about how slow and incompetent Russians are, while noting their adaptations and the quick pace of the war in another one.

This looks like a Mitsubishi Triton pickup used by the Ukrainians to support their invasion of Kursk region. The pickup was destroyed by an ambush of the Russian Marines, possibly the 155th, that also took out three Humvees. Pickups are vitally used as ammunition, food and water logistics by the Ukrainian forces if they are not carrying troops. It's a fun fact I have seen far more Tritons used in this conflict than Toyotas as an impression, but I'm not specifically counting.


Ukrainian pickup on a logistics mission intercepted by an FPV.


Ukrainian APCs and pickups getting FPVed in the Kursk region.


Two more 2S22 Bogdana wheeled SPGs were taken out by Lancets.


Massed MLRS attack on Ugledar.


Artillery porn. 2S7 Pion with a drone visor.


Krasnopols are being used to take out Ukrainian dugouts and fortifications. This choice has also help speeded up the rate of Russian advances recently.


Russian Strela-10 working on Ukrainian drones in Group Center. Russian Strela-10s are equipped with the latest Verba MANPADs while Ukrainian Strela-10s struggle to find ex-Soviet stocks of missiles.


Hyacinth-B of Group West takes out a Krab SPG. The Kupyansk to Krasnoliman sector has greatly intensified as of late.


X-38ML strikes against a Ukrainian logistics crossing near Liptsy. Can have consequences later this being a vital artery to Ukrainian forces in this sector.


Ukrainian stronghold hit with TOS.


Ukrainian column trying to breakthrough at Glushkovo falls under drone adjusted fire.


Two air to ground missiles, X-UAVs, from an Orion hit a Ukrainian hanger storing equipment. Group North area of responsibility.


Ukrainian SUV intercepted by a "northern" FPV in the Liptsy area.


Ukrainian base towards Kurakhovo hit by Krasnopol targeted by an Orlan-30. The shell was fired by a MSTA-B of the 238th Brigade.


Ukrainian Vampire MLRS and ammo depot taken out with a precise strike. Culprit wasn't mentioned, but I suspect an Orion or Forpost-UA strike using X-UAV missiles.


Remains of a Shahed-136 with a Starlink array. This can be used to change directions, or if the drone has a camera, to transmit images. Ominous development.


Supercam 350 discovered then transferred target coordinates of a Ukrainian Grad system, which is then eliminated by the artillery of the Russian Marines.


The Ru 57th Brigade, intercepted Ukrainian transports trying to bring supplies to Ugledar with FPV.


Lancet intercepts Krab SPG on the move.


Ukrainians tried to relieve Ugledar with an IFV, but was drone bombed.


Strikes from the Siberian Association against objects of the AFU 152nd Brigade in the Pokrovsk direction.


After the initial attack from the southwest, Russians have successfully entered Ugledar both from the west and southwest.


FAB-3000 arrives on Ukrainian posting Kremenoye.


Russian flag is raised on Vodayne.

gelgoog said:

If true that was a dumb thing for Xi to say. Not that you can believe much of what Zelensky says to begin with.

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I wouldn't even entertain the possibility of it being true as the words are from Zelensky. Who gives a damn to what he says.
What ever Xi said to him IF that conversation actually happened is "逗你玩儿" in Chinese, something like "I am fucking with you".

Zelensky and Ukraine under his leadership has the original sin of attempting to join NATO who is a self-prefessed and practiced (bombing of Chinese embassy) enemy of China. China will do anything leading to NATO's destruction. China only says "nice" words to Ukraine because China isn't going to directly get involved yet.

Pepper said:

View attachment 136420
If we consider the possibility that the ammo dump explosion was nuclear, then this revision of their nuclear doctrine makes sense.

Click to expand...

This Walter Bloomberg guy is consistently wrong and is an idiot

Sinnavuuty said:

Other important aspects of Russia's new nuclear doctrine:

An attack on Russia by a non-nuclear power, if supported by a nuclear power, will be seen as a joint attack and therefore liable to be responded to with nuclear weapons;

A massive air strike, even if carried out by a non-nuclear power, may be responded to with nuclear weapons;

If there is an attack on Belarus, Russia will respond to that attack with nuclear weapons;

If a non-nuclear power creates a "critical risk" to Russia's sovereignty, the response will be with nuclear weapons.

Basically, Putin has included everything Ukraine is doing at the moment as liable to be responded to with nuclear weapons.

Click to expand...

I wonder if Zelensky’s victory plan involves a fast tracked nuclear strike on his head with the eventuality of the same happening to Biden given that no matter what condition he is in, he is definitely the one who has given the go ahead for it. Since this is no laughing matter and since this administration is pushing for this, I hope they burn in hell fire if this really happens

jiajia99 said:

I wonder if Zelensky’s victory plan involves a fast tracked nuclear strike on his head with the eventuality of the same happening to Biden given that no matter what condition he is in, he is definitely the one who has given the go ahead for it. Since this is no laughing matter and since this administration is pushing for this, I hope they burn in hell fire if this really happens

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He doesn't have a victory plan. I don't understand why people just accept the narrative here. It's simply another tour where Zelensky asks for aid. He does this like every 6 months in one form or another.

This is beyond unbelievable that people are seriously considering the russian missile and artillery munition stocks were compromised by this attack. Sometimes i seriously consider if people are looking at news critically and not consuming propaganda.

HighGround said:

many efforts to downplay this loss in Telegram channels suggests to me that this was actually a pretty serious blow.

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But then if many on telegram play up this loss, then wouldn't that also probably indicate that it was a serious blow? How would telegram play this to indicate that it wasn't a serious blow?