The War in the Ukraine

Seems Russian tanks are finally getting the Arena-M APS, wonder if it has any improvements over the original series. Interestingly, the first tank spotted with it at the factory is a T-72B3M






Whole video is interesting though, as it is a tour around UVZ's facilities.

Rare for the campaign, Orion UAV launches an X-UAV missile to strike a Ukrainian T-64BV in the Kursk region. The missile is an upgraded amd modified Kornet, and the target is lit by a laser like a Krasnopol. If Russia unleashes more Orion UAVs in the future, this usage will become more common. I do think there is potential to the idea of UAVs, large quadcopters even, that mount ATGMs.


Knocked out Marder being recovered by the Ukrainians.


Ukrainian mortar in Kherson knocked out by artillery.


Russian flag raised in Niu York. The Russian MoD also confirms officially the capture of Krasnogorovka.


Nevelskoye appears to have fallen to the Russian forces. Ukrainian forces in the Kursk salient has gone into the defensive mode, suggesting a Russian counterattack expected.


In Nikolaevka, the Zarya Hotel is destroyed. Like many hotels in Ukraine, it's used as a stay for Ukrainian military, foreign advisers and mercenaries.


German supplied Dingo-2 MRAP ran over a mine and what's left of it.


Destroyed Bradley left on the road.


A 2S22 Bogdana 155mm self propelled howitzer destroyed by Lancet in the Kursk region.


New improved UMPK now with use on FAB-500 bombs, with longer range.


Russians drove a UAZ across the field and blew up on a TM-62 mine. Miraculously, all three survived and back in service.


Mercenary base in the Kursk region hit by a Russian rocket, which could be an Iskander or Tornado-S. Allegedly 30 were killed and 6 pieces of equipment or vehicles were destroyed.


Ukrainian military struggling with low morale and desertion.


"Of the 800 soldiers, half remained: the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered heavy losses, increased desertion and low morale, especially among the infantry in the Donbass — CNN

↓Ukrainian officers confirmed that the situation is escalating and reinforcements are arriving irregularly, which greatly demoralizes soldiers on the front line.
↓One of the commanders, Officer Dima, said that the losses in his unit were so high that out of 800 soldiers, more than half were killed or seriously wounded. Many mobilized soldiers refuse to return to positions after the first rotation, often trying to escape from the army.
↓According to Sergei Tsekhotsky from the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade, soldiers must rotate every 3-4 days, but due to intense drone attacks they are forced to remain in positions for up to 20 days.
↓According to Ukrainian parliament data, there have been around 19,000 criminal cases against military personnel who have left their posts since the beginning of 2024, but the real number of deserters could be significantly higher.
↓Let us recall that despite these media reports and losses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces generally remain combat-ready and continue to offer fierce resistance, including due to the ongoing mass mobilization.
t.me/RVvoenkor"

Pokrovsk sector isn't stable for the AFU denying Syrsky's claim as Russian forces penetrated to the center of Grodovka and south of Ukrainsk.


Slow announcement. Russian MoD only now formally acknowledged the capture of Novogrodovka.


Member of the Iranian National Security Commission confirms Iran sent ballistic missiles to Russia. However Iranian representative to the UN denies this.


More than 200 Fath-360 rockets claimed delivered to the Russians. Each has a range of 120km, a 150kg warhead with a speed of Mach 3-4, analogous to a Tornado-S rocket.


Moving aside from the generic loading scene of a MSTA-S that might be added, this Ukrainian shelter appears to be taken out by a Krasnopol.


Russians are counterattacking at the Kursk pocket in a number of directions.


"The Russian army is carrying out a series of successful counterattacks in the Kursk region, knocking out the enemy from Komarovka and Sheptukhovka!
↓In a number of areas, our troops confidently seized the initiative and a week ago drove the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Komarovka, significantly driving back the occupiers and forcing the survivors to flee to Vishnevka."

M777 being towed gets intercepted by a Lancet.


Artillery and MLRS barrage at Ukrainian positions hiding in a forest in the Kursk region. One part looks to me like cluster munitions from an MLRS, which can be an Uragan or Tornado-S.


HIMARS takes out a Russian pontoon bridge in the Kursk region. The pontoon was a replacement to a bridge the Ukrainians destroyed previously, and no doubt the Russians will replace it again. Two Russian transports managed to get away.


Ukrainians trying to retrieve their own knocked out vehicles in Kursk region. There's plenty in the area.

Tam said:

More than 200 Fath-360 rockets claimed delivered to the Russians. Each has a range of 120km, a 150kg warhead with a speed of Mach 3-4, analogous to a Tornado-S rocket.

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Exactly why it makes little sense for the Russians to be getting it. They already have Tornado-S. The only advantage seems to be it has twice the payload. But the Tornado-S could likely be modified to increase its payload as well. Not to mention Tornado-S has several possible warhead configurations depending on target thus increasing its lethality.

It would make much more sense for them to get the 1000 km rockets the Iranians have. This would enable striking all the Ukrainian territory with ground based launchers. This thing where Ukraine gets advance warning of a launch because a MiG-31K has to get into the air to launch a Kinzhal would stop. But the Russians seem to have decided to develop their own long range Iskander instead.

Tam said:

Rare for the campaign, Orion UAV launches an X-UAV missile to strike a Ukrainian T-64BV in the Kursk region. The missile is an upgraded amd modified Kornet, and the target is lit by a laser like a Krasnopol. If Russia unleashes more Orion UAVs in the future, this usage will become more common. I do think there is potential to the idea of UAVs, large quadcopters even, that mount ATGMs.

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Seems like the first few weeks of the war again where AA cover is poor to non-existent, allowing MALE UAVs to carry out strikes with impunity. The Ukrainian AA cover might be severely degraded in Kursk at this point.

gelgoog said:

Exactly why it makes little sense for the Russians to be getting it. They already have Tornado-S. The only advantage seems to be it has twice the payload. But the Tornado-S could likely be modified to increase its payload as well. Not to mention Tornado-S has several possible warhead configurations depending on target thus increasing its lethality.

It would make much more sense for them to get the 1000 km rockets the Iranians have. This would enable striking all the Ukrainian territory with ground based launchers. This thing where Ukraine gets advance warning of a launch because a MiG-31K has to get into the air to launch a Kinzhal would stop. But the Russians seem to have decided to develop their own long range Iskander instead.

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Nah, it makes sense for the Russians to get it. The Tornado-S can be saved for more accuracy and time critical targets like AD systems or HIMARS, while the Iranian missiles can be used to strike the typical stationary and Ukrainian deployment points. Ultimately the Russians want to keep a reserve if their own missiles if NATO escalates to a direct conflict. At the same time the Iranians get wheat and soybeans. Russians can also field test the missiles and work to improve these missiles, and no matter what a militarily stronger ally is a geopolitical benefit to the Russians. The same in parallel to the North Korean missiles.

But then again, the Western press said the Russians got Iranian ballistic missiles last year and nothing happened.

To some updates.

Here in the Chasiv Yar region, a Ukrainian APC is cautiously moving through this settlement when suddenly the ambush was sprung and the FPV drones started attacking. The footage shown is cut from the original as the rest shown that the ambush left no survivors. We don't get much news on the Chasiv Yar front but it seems the Russians are in a sneak krieg mode in the area, gaining a bit of ground here and there, and appears to have secured both sides of the Kanal.


Russians attacked the Lvov airfield and according to them, infrastructure and a number of aircraft, namely MiG-29s and Su-24s were destroyed.


Review of the last Iskander strikes on a HIMARS and a M270 launcher. Again, UAV spotting the targets, this at night or the thermals helping with the contrast. The use of an escort vehicle clues this likely an M142 or M270 launcher. Once the target has settled to it's hiding place in the forest, the rocket strike is called it.


Another railway bridge near Selidovo gets taken out by an X-38ML missile.


TOS used on Ukrainian positions in the Kupyansk region.


FPV drone takes out a Ukrainian recovery vehicle in the Pokrovsk region.


Destroyed Abrams tank in the village of Volchye in the Pokrovsk direction.


Battle of Torestk. Russians storm the city.


Destroyed BTR-4E in the village of Liptsy in the Kharkhiv front.


Captured Marder 1A3 being towed by Russians to the rear.


Destroyed M109 Paladin somewhere in the front.


The tank taken out by the Orion isn't a T-64BV, but corrected as a Leopard. It could be possible there might have been two strikes.


X-UAV missile used in the above event.

Tam said:

Nah, it makes sense for the Russians to get it. The Tornado-S can be saved for more accuracy and time critical targets like AD systems or HIMARS, while the Iranian missiles can be used to strike the typical stationary and Ukrainian deployment points. Ultimately the Russians want to keep a reserve if their own missiles if NATO escalates to a direct conflict. At the same time the Iranians get wheat and soybeans. Russians can also field test the missiles and work to improve these missiles, and no matter what a militarily stronger ally is a geopolitical benefit to the Russians. The same in parallel to the North Korean missiles.

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The thing is, if the Russians increase the production of Tornado-S they could achieve the same result. And they would have this capability themselves long term. Who knows what could happen with Iran.

Tam said:

But then again, the Western press said the Russians got Iranian ballistic missiles last year and nothing happened.

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Exactly.

gelgoog said:

The thing is, if the Russians increase the production of Tornado-S they could achieve the same result. And they would have this capability themselves long term. Who knows what could happen with Iran.

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Who said the Russians aren’t massively ramping up domestic production of all weapons and munitions? But having a big influx is still useful as it then allows them to be more tolerant of making lower KP shots. Some of those will miss, but you will also kill more enemy high value assets. And/or it allows them to do multiple large scale operations whereas before they might have had to pick and choose.

In essence, that fundamentally incorrect assessment of Russian munitions supply capabilities is the root reason for the Kursk idiocy. With the Donbas front on the verge of collapse, Ukrainian high command seemed to have thought that if they opened up a new higher priority front for the Russians, they will be forced to use all their ‘limited’ high end weapons there, thus relieving pressure on the main front and delay the pending collapse long enough for General Mud to intervene and pause the Russian advance for a few more months.

gelgoog said:

The thing is, if the Russians increase the production of Tornado-S they could achieve the same result. And they would have this capability themselves long term. Who knows what could happen with Iran.


Exactly.

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Russians have massively boosted artillery ammunition production but they are still taking and using DPRK and Iranian shells. Not to mention they are also already taking in and using Grad 122mm MLRS ammo at least from the DPRK to be sure and Iran a possible. The Russians even got the Shah era American supplied 203mm shells and it worked splendidly well on the Psions and Malkas on the Donbass. The 130mm M46 shells the DPRK supplied were a pleasant surprise, the shells might have been tweaked past the Soviet era specifications and we already see how effective the M46s are being used in the Donbass. So it's a win win. We all know how well the Shahed did. The Russians also got Mohajers even when they have their own UAVs. Even if Tornado-S production is increased even by many times, having additional missiles from somewhere to deal with less accuracy and time critical targets is still win win.

More details on the Orion with Kornet-based ATGM's

No point in increasing basic munition production of N Korea and Iran can do it cheaper and faster.