The War in the Ukraine

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
Open fields actually served Russia pretty well early in the war. The BTGs got a bad rep because they got stopped short of Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev, where the Ukrainian defence was thick and backed against large urban base, but the Russians advanced very well from the south (where Ukrainian defence was weaker). They did try to maneuver around Vugledar and got punished hard for it, but that again was pitted against a really solid Ukrainian defence. I think after Pokrovsk the weak defence and advantageous terrain might give a (potential) return to mobile warfare a good deal of success on the Russian side.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russian flag raised on the village of Memrik next to Selidovo.

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Burnt Abrams towards the Pokrovsk direction.

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ODAB-1500 lands on Ukrainian position in Chasiv Yar.

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Russian flag raised over the settlement of Kamyshevka.

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Ukrainian tank destroyed after drone attack by the Sparta Battalion.

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Krasnopol strikes in Volchansk.

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Krasnopol strikes, location not disclosed.

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Su-34 drops four OFAB-250 glide bombs on Ukrainian positions in Kursk region.

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Krasnopol strikes on Ukrainian strongholds along Konstantinovka Ugledar highway, capture of strongholds and raising the Russian flag.

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Various destroyed Ukrainian trucks.

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FAB strikes, unknown location.

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Tornado-S deployed in the Kursk region.

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Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdana self propelled howitzer left destroyed by Lancet.

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T-72M1 and M777 taken out by FPV drones from the 810rd. The catastrophic explosion on the tank suggests it's fully loaded with ammo and fuel for a sustained campaign.


Ukrainian tank taken out by Krasnopol fired from a MSTA-B. Orekhiv sector.


Russian flag raised. Should be in the South Donetsk sector.


Russian capture of Kalinovo.

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Ukrainian 150th Mechanized Brigade refuses to follow orders.

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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Russia is close to achieving its "minimum case scenario" aka Donbass + the southern strip + crimea

Personally though I don't think they will stop there and they will likely continue to a "Novorossiya" type of situation including Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odessa

I doubt that's the plan. These are dreams of Russian nationalists, but Putin is much more pragmatic. He'll keep going until it is either unfeasible due to economic/military factors, or until he gets the concessions he wants from Ukraine/West.
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
I doubt that's the plan. These are dreams of Russian nationalists, but Putin is much more pragmatic. He'll keep going until it is either unfeasible due to economic/military factors, or until he gets the concessions he wants from Ukraine/West.
He is being pragmatic by emptying Ukraine of anti Russian Ukrainians. And what will logically happen to Ukraine once those are all gone?

If there's no appetite for anti Russian thinking in Ukraine anymore, then by default Russia gets nearly everything, just queustion of how the administration is divided and/or formal annexations happen.
 

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
Putin's got to be aware by now (after however many rounds of sanctions and embargoes) that he will never be met by "The West TM" in a discussion among equals. Russia will always be seen as "less than" them. If he lets his foot off the gas and agrees to another version of Minsk, that's it. Russia lets go of this chance, there won't be another.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
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lol they are definitely lying about the interception numbers and of the importance of this outdated f-16 batch
Forbes and the headline, you can smell David Axe and his usual Jai West nonsense.
"Kills", "Aerial Victories", took 2/3 of the article before he actually mentions that the targets could not shoot back.
Almost as bad as the badass F-22 shooting down the commie balloon that was surely America's greatest aerial danger since 9/11.
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think this is a silly way to view this conflict.
It's a logical exploration of ideas on how to fight a large scale war like this, based on observation of past failures by the "stronger" party that however didn't have the hearts and minds of the locals.

Vietnam war is a very close reference. What lost the stronger side the war was an insistence on deep attacks and strikes, turns out it mostly hurt civilians and increased morale/recruitment even more for the weaker side, until the rates of attrition became unbearable and the stronger party not only failed their attack but had to surrender territory.

So the Russian speculation is that by not touching the cities so much, letting the other side come out and waste his troops while focusing all firepower on the contact line, they'll keep losses manageable while slowly getting rid of all the people whose minds it's impossible for Russia to win.

We won't know yet if the strategy proves better than Vietnam, but it does make you wonder how that war would have turned out it US had fought Russia style and tried to run Vietnam out of ideologically motivated men. North Vietnam is about same population as Ukraine.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Putin's got to be aware by now (after however many rounds of sanctions and embargoes) that he will never be met by "The West TM" in a discussion among equals. Russia will always be seen as "less than" them. If he lets his foot off the gas and agrees to another version of Minsk, that's it. Russia lets go of this chance, there won't be another.
He's not expecting WestTM to willingly meet him, and indeed, if Ukraine surrenders and a new government is elected he is probably aware of the possibility that the West will simply cut Ukraine off, refuse to acknowledge any treaties signed between Ukraine and Russia, and maintain the sanctions regime.

But it's irrelevant, Putin's main concern isn't how the West feels. It's about making sure that Ukraine isn't the next NATO base. That has always been the main objective of this war.
 
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