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The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
According to the image, in total, the Russian military used:
111 Kinzhal missiles (28 shot down); interception rate 25%
894 Kalibr missiles (443 shot down); interception rate 49%
1,846 X-555/101 missiles (1,441 shot down); interception rate 78%
211 Onyx missiles (12 shot down); interception rate 5%
202 Iskander-K missiles (76 shot down); interception rate 37%
15 Kh-35 (1 shot down); interception rate 6%
57 other unknown missiles (0 shot down); interception rate 0%
362 Kh-22/32 (2 shot down); interception rate 0.5%
1,300 Iskander-M/KN-23 (56 shot down); interception rate 4.5%
6 Zircon missiles (2 shot down); interception rate 33%
68 Tochka-U (6 shot down); interception rate 9%
1,547 Kh-25/29/31/35/58/59/60 (343 shot down); interception rate 22%
3,008 S-300/400 (19 shot down); interception rate 0.6%
The Russians also used 13,997 attack drones against Ukraine, 9,272 of which were shot down:
13,315 Shaheds (8,836 shot down); interception rate 66%
682 other drones (430 shot down); intercept rate at 63%
According to Syrky, missiles hit 5,197 civilian sites and 1,988 military targets. Drones attacked 1,022 civilian sites and 3,697 military targets. It also became known that Russian troops fired 400,630 artillery rounds, or an average of 44,500 per day, between August 6 and 14, 2024.
This seems like a very acceptable interception rate, far from the reality that propagandists claim is between 70-90%. The real interception rate is between 25-40%, disregarding drones, which have an average of over 60%. Considering the interception rate without including the S-300/400, the total amount of missile interception at 2,429 out of a total of 6,619 missiles launched, would give an interception success of 36%. If the S-300/400 is included in the count (9,627 missiles launched), the interception rate drops to 25%.
I still think this total of 3,008 S-300/400s launched is exaggerated. Even so, considering this total, the Russians launched a total of 6,619 missiles against Ukraine.
Considering Ukrainian and some other specific armies from one specific block have a history of overestimating their numbers about anything and making mistakes in terms of wrong calculations in the last 40 years in all wars due to sheer overconfidence and hubris, i have my doubts.
An unmanned Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat (maximum range 1,100 km) flew more than 1,700 km from Ukraine to try to hit a Russian strategic bomber base.
DRG units are conducting a reconnaissance operation in the Bryansk region. It is not yet possible to determine the Ukrainian commitment to this front.
Strange decision if they have their hands full in the south and the need to support the Kurtz push. Better not to stir Belarus into this more deeply, I don't know what is their state of mind ?
Belarus has been moving units to the border strip with Ukraine, the reason being that the Ukrainians were provoking them.
I think that at this moment, with a possible Ukrainian offensive in the south, on the Zaporizhzhia-Enerhodar axis and also in Bryansk, the Ukrainians are openly in the objective phase of opening other fronts to try to dissimulate the Russians, forcing them to react by reinforcing all these axes, trying to regain some initiative in the east or at least improve their strategic defense position in the Donbas, trying to reduce Russian numerical superiority and the Russian advance.
Updated estimate of Russian Operational Groups based on Ukrainian claims:
As previously reported, the Northern (Sever) Group is now the amalgamation of the Belgorod and Bryansk/Kursk Groups. The estimate now stands at a total strength of 73,500.
The Western (Zapad) Group of Forces is estimated at 71,500, down from the 80,000 initially claimed.
The Center (Centr) Group of Forces is estimated at 87,000, the same as the previous estimate.
The Southern (Yug) Group of Forces is estimated at 114,000, slightly higher than the previous estimate.
The Eastern (Vostok) Group of Forces is estimated at 52,100, roughly the same as the previous estimate.
The Dnepr group of forces is estimated at 130,000, the same as the previous estimate.
The image also shows the small operational group “Crimea” which is estimated at 13,500, the same number as the previous estimate.
The total Russian force is 541,600.
A more recent news item posted a few days ago by @Tam is that the Russians will divide the Northern Group (Sever) into three axes: Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk, dividing it into three different groups.
Other:
Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War
A report by ISW showing the problems arising from current positional warfare, describing approaches for Ukraine to attempt to shift from a strategic defensive posture to regain the initiative and thus have some chance of leveraging greater successes in battles that achieve operational success for strategic effects.
Night hunt of Mi-28NM in the Kursk region. A Ukrainian vehicle falls victim to a Vikhr missile attack.
M777 taken out by Lancet. Ivanpolye, northwest of Toretsk.
So it appears that the 200th Lenvo Brigade has been redeployed to the Kursk region, at Korenevo.
The Arbat, Pyatnashka and Sarmat Battalions of the Donbass Wild Division have retaken Nechaev in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian BMP-1 taken out by FPV drone in the Kupyansk direction.
FPV drone attacks by the 810rd. I didn't include another footage due to R+ footage. The 810rd hosts some of the most notorious FPV drone squads, having several months of practice on the Krynki beachhead and the Dniepr.
Ukrainian Su-27 fighter reported taken down by a Buk-M3. The Su-27 was launching glide bombs in the Kursk sector.
Iveco and Husky APCs found destroyed somewhere in the front.
M113 and Kirpi destroyed by FPV in the Kursk region.
Sparta Battalion hitting Ukrainian positions in the terracon with FPV drones attached with land mines. Should be in the Toretsk sector, given the look of it.
Mini Summary 20th Army. One counterbattery radar, mortar and two UAV control points destroyed.
Mini Summary 25th Army. Two EW stations, one 2S1 Gvozdika, D-30 howitzer and mortar destroyed. It appears Krasnopol used in at least one occasion.
Ukrainian positions in Kherson being bombarded.
M777 taken out by Lancet. Ivanpolye, northwest of Toretsk.
So it appears that the 200th Lenvo Brigade has been redeployed to the Kursk region, at Korenevo.
The Arbat, Pyatnashka and Sarmat Battalions of the Donbass Wild Division have retaken Nechaev in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian BMP-1 taken out by FPV drone in the Kupyansk direction.
FPV drone attacks by the 810rd. I didn't include another footage due to R+ footage. The 810rd hosts some of the most notorious FPV drone squads, having several months of practice on the Krynki beachhead and the Dniepr.
Ukrainian Su-27 fighter reported taken down by a Buk-M3. The Su-27 was launching glide bombs in the Kursk sector.
Iveco and Husky APCs found destroyed somewhere in the front.
M113 and Kirpi destroyed by FPV in the Kursk region.
Sparta Battalion hitting Ukrainian positions in the terracon with FPV drones attached with land mines. Should be in the Toretsk sector, given the look of it.
Mini Summary 20th Army. One counterbattery radar, mortar and two UAV control points destroyed.
Mini Summary 25th Army. Two EW stations, one 2S1 Gvozdika, D-30 howitzer and mortar destroyed. It appears Krasnopol used in at least one occasion.
Ukrainian positions in Kherson being bombarded.
While the overall interception rate numbers seem more realistic than their usual tripe, the interception rates stated for individual missiles still seem kind of bogus. There is just no good reason why Iskander-M would be harder to intercept than the Kinzhal for example. It is also kind of dubious that the Kalibr would be harder to intercept than the Kh-101 unless they are talking about the high terminal velocity Kalibr missiles or something. It makes no sense why the Zircon would be easier to intercept than the Oniks (could be low baseline numbers effect for Zircon). There is still no credible evidence of Russia either using the Tochka or the S-300/S-400 as attack missiles on Ukraine. The only country using the Tochka in the conflict is Ukraine.