The War in the Ukraine

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 895:
Situation on Kursk front: The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk intensifies: after the initial attack the Ukrainian army has continued to advance to the north taking control of the localities of Lebedevka, Nizhnii Klin, Obukhovka, Pokrovskii, Tolstyi Lug, Liubimovka, Zelenyi Shlyakh, Novoivanovka and Leonidovo.
Meanwhile on the Sudzha axis the Russian army seems to have stabilized the front for the time being by expelling the Ukrainian forces from the western suburbs of that city, from the locality of Gogolevka and relieved the pressure on the half-circled troops in Oleshnya.
Map: [ ]

In just 48 hours Ukraine captured 183 square kilometers on Russian soil. This figure is close to the 210 square kilometers captured by the Russians in Kharkov. The objective of this operation remains unclear, but it is possible that the Ukrainian command has thought of creating a "reverse operation" to create a buffer zone on Russian territory and to provoke the diversion of Russian troops to this front to the detriment of others located on Ukrainian territory. However, this strategy is not enough to establish a change of tendency on the Donbas front, since there are already enough Russian reserves on the northern fronts to stabilize the situation, the only front affected being that of the Russian buffer zone in Kharkov, where the balance of forces is beginning to tilt slightly towards the Ukrainian side.

Krab taken out by Lancet from the 238th, supporting the Pokrovsk advance.


Krab taken out by Lancet from the VDV, in support of the Kharkhiv front.


Ukrainian position in a forest line is taken out by Krasnopol shell.


Large dump truck with 42 draft dodgers intercepted by Ukrainian border guards near Odessa.


FABs and Krasnopol strikes against the Ukrainian advance into the Kursk region. Ukrainians managed a front breakthrough of 11 km but Russians claimed they inflicted 260 casualties and 50 armored and auxiliary vehicles.


AFU blames debacle of Torestk to leadership of the AFU 41st Brigade, according to NYT.


Two Baba Yagas intercepted by FPV drones of the North Group.


Ukrainian FPV drone attacks a Mi-28NM, causing repairs on the tail.


Russian Marines from the North Fleet takes out an ammo depot in Kherson.


Electrical substations are hit by partisans in Odessa.


Leleka-100 UAV shot down with Verba MANPADS.


2S1 Gvozdika of the 155th Marine Brigade with Group North is using guided ammunition. Being a 122mm, this would be a Kitolov-2M, a sibling of the Krasnopol.


Ukrainian tank convoy in Kursk region falls under heavy artillery fire and Lancet attacks.


2S22 Bogdana 155mm SPG falls victim to a Lancet.


Pzh-2000 155mm SPG attacked by Lancet and burning.


Russians in fast assaults gains foothold within the outskirts of Konstantinovka village.

So what are the objectives for the Kursk offensive? For me it just seems like a PR action, while they were anyway unable to hold this positions...

So any military use? It seems like AFU is to often using rescources for PR actions, that is then maybe missed on other parts of the front...

Shahryar said:

So what are the objectives for the Kursk offensive? For me it just seems like a PR action, while they were anyway unable to hold this positions...

So any military use? It seems like AFU is to often using rescources for PR actions, that is then maybe missed on other parts of the front...

Click to expand...

Sudzha is a very important hub for pumping Russian gas. There is the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is said to be the main target.

I believe this is a diversionary operation by the ZSU. They want to reinforce the deployment of Russian reserve forces from the Northern Group to Kursk in order to recapture Kharkiv. Although some are talking about the redeployment of Russian forces in the Donbas being the main objective of this Ukrainian offensive, I do not see it that way. I believe that the realistic intention of this operation is to affect the Russian effort on the Kharkiv front. Whether or not it will affect it remains to be seen as more Ukrainian reinforcements arrive and more Russian reinforcements arrive on this front.

RedBaron said:

In just 48 hours Ukraine captured 183 square kilometers on Russian soil. This figure is close to the 210 square kilometers captured by the Russians in Kharkov. The objective of this operation remains unclear, but it is possible that the Ukrainian command has thought of creating a "reverse operation" to create a buffer zone on Russian territory and to provoke the diversion of Russian troops to this front to the detriment of others located on Ukrainian territory. However, this strategy is not enough to establish a change of tendency on the Donbas front, since there are already enough Russian reserves on the northern fronts to stabilize the situation, the only front affected being that of the Russian buffer zone in Kharkov, where the balance of forces is beginning to tilt slightly towards the Ukrainian side.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

I don't think Ukraine can recreate Russia's "diversion" in Kursk. They do not have the supporting fires that Russian forces did, and I doubt they have the engineering equipment that Russia does either. Aside from regular forces, Russia can also use conscripts in non-direct combat roles or as trip-wires/light garrisons. Ukraine just lacks a lot of advantages that Russia had going into Kharkov.

As a flipside, all of these troops and equipment were sorely needed in Donbass. A mechanized Brigade could've helped stabilize the bleeding in New York at the very least, and I think Kofman tweeted that there are possibly multiple brigades involved. Early to say whether the Kursk operation was a blunder or wild success, but I personally don't see a lot of good coming out of this for Ukraine.

HighGround said:

As a flipside, all of these troops and equipment were sorely needed in Donbass. A mechanized Brigade could've helped stabilize the bleeding in New York at the very least, and I think Kofman tweeted that there are possibly multiple brigades involved. Early to say whether the Kursk operation was a blunder or wild success, but I personally don't see a lot of good coming out of this for Ukraine.

Click to expand...

I have read sources indicating that the 22nd Mechanized Brigade is in the main effort. Other sources indicate that the 42nd Mechanized Brigade is involved in the offensive with the 22nd Mechanized Brigade. Other sources now warn that it is possible that the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade and 80th Air Assault Brigade are being sent to reinforce the offensive.

That's very risky, and not really sure what they're trying to accomplish. Russia's offensive into Kharkov was a smart move because Russians had a solid operational base to deploy from. Looking at the map, the Ukrainian forces are kind of... "hanging in the air" so to speak. If the Russians decide to cut them off by attacking towards Sumy and "escaping forward", they could completely cut the Ukrainian offensive off from the mainland. The only way to prevent that from happening would be if Ukrainians have a lot of reserves ready to prevent that, but then one has to ask - why weren't those forces used in the south where everything's started to collapse after Avdeevka? Assuming this is a proper, well planned and prepared offensive action (and not just a PR stunt) then the Ukrainians sacrificed the entire front bursting at the seams in order to open a new one that gets them nothing.

It almost seems like Russians have someone in the Ukrainian Command working for them and tossing the Ukrainian units into a suicide attack.

Footage of a strike by a Russian Iskander 9M723-K5 missile with a cluster warhead on a Ukrainian Buk-M1 air defense system in the Sumy region of Ukraine. The Buk-M1 air defense system was covering the entry of a Ukrainian armored group into the territory of the Kursk region of Russia. The first strike by an Iskander missile did not destroy the Buk-M1 air defense system, but the missiles launched spontaneously in the system. After the abnormal launch of the missiles, the crew of the Buk-M1 air defense system decided to hide in the forest. The start of the Buk-M1 air defense system movement can be seen after the spontaneous launch of the second missile. The movement of the air defense system was tracked by a Russian drone, after which a second strike was carried out at the location of the Ukrainian Buk-M1 air defense system, but with an Iskander missile with a conventional warhead. As a result of the strike by the Iskander missile, the Buk-M1 air defense system was destroyed.

Tootensky said:

That's very risky, and not really sure what they're trying to accomplish. Russia's offensive into Kharkov was a smart move because Russians had a solid operational base to deploy from. Looking at the map, the Ukrainian forces are kind of... "hanging in the air" so to speak. If the Russians decide to cut them off by attacking towards Sumy and "escaping forward", they could completely cut the Ukrainian offensive off from the mainland. The only way to prevent that from happening would be if Ukrainians have a lot of reserves ready to prevent that, but then one has to ask - why weren't those forces used in the south where everything's started to collapse after Avdeevka? Assuming this is a proper, well planned and prepared offensive action (and not just a PR stunt) then the Ukrainians sacrificed the entire front bursting at the seams in order to open a new one that gets them nothing.

It almost seems like Russians have someone in the Ukrainian Command working for them and tossing the Ukrainian units into a suicide attack.

Click to expand...

Yes, all true, but you’re forgetting one thing.

In this one, unique moment in time, they’ve created incredible material for memes and discourse on social media.

I doubt there will be many Ukrainian soldiers going "Did it for the lulz" afterwards though.