The War in the Ukraine

These people are really dumb. Russia has submarines in the Black Sea. They could deploy mines or sink any ships they wanted. And those drones the Ukrainians have would be useless against submarines.
Heck they could just send spotter drones and use land missile batteries to sink ships.
They could fire a naval attack cruise missile from the other side of the Black Sea and hit a ship in Odessa easily.

If it wasn't for the UN Secretary General nagging about stopping the blockade it might have already happened.

Sinnavuuty said:

Russia recognized its inability to close Ukrainian ports, even though Ukraine does not have a navy.

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They did have one before Russia destroyed it. Not an advanced navy by any means but slightly above the Philippines navy in combat power at least.

Any "escalation fears" the west have are fully self imposed... Russia has since day 1 been attacking back any asset that attacks them, there are no hidden rules or escalations... If NATO attacks from their own soil, Russia will bomb the country launching the attacks. And if NATO attacks from Ukrainian soil using their assets (as they have so far), then Russia will hunt those assets.

Only explanation why they fear escalation so much is that they are uncertain it's worth escalating.

788 Ukrainian soldiers are still missing in Krynki and 262 have been recovered and buried.


Shelter used by Ukrainian airborne troops is taken out by LMUR fired from Mi-28NM.


2S1 Gvozdika taken out by Lancet. Ukrainians appear to have gotten more of these from the rest of Eastern Europe.


Ukrainian P-18 radar destroyed by an X-35U missile.


FABs arriving on Ukrainian positions in Volchansk.


M2A2 Bradley taken out by FPV drone.


Ukrainian naval drones attacked the coast of Crimea again. BMPs with Berezhok combat modules and helicopters with machine guns engaged them and destroyed 10 of the boats.


Ukrainian positions in Volchansk being hit with Krasnopols.


M777 in Kherson taken out by Lancet.


Ukrainian tank hit by Lancet.


Ukrainian warehouse with military equipment on the right side of the Dniepr gets hit by Krasnopol.


Ukrainian mortar site hit by artillery in the Kharkhiv front.


Ukrainian crossing supplying the Toretsk garrison gets hit by an X-38ML.


TOS-2 strike on Ukrainian positions.


The 238th Artillery Brigade wages a counterbattery duel against Ukrainian artillery.


Hidden Ukrainian SPG hit by Lancet.


More M-46 cannons on the way to the front. The standard artillery shell on this reaches 27km while base bleed can reach 31km. The latest generation of Chinese and Iranian ammunition can reach 44km.


M109 hit by Lancet, burns and ammunition goes into a cook off.


Ukrainian PVD hit by ODAB-1500, and ammunition on the site exploded. IMO, this is an X-38ML strike.


Russian soldier slings a TM-62 mine with a time delayed fuse into a Ukrainian dugout. This time, there's enough time for the soldier to get out of the blast radius.


Russian ATGM hits a Ukrainian shelter.

Russian MOD churning out many 5th & 4th gen fighter jets. The old photo was posted here just over a week ago. I compared the two to see if they are taken from the same room, but it looks like these two photos are from different manufacturing facilities.

iBBz said:

Russian MOD churning out many 5th & 4th gen fighter jets. The old photo was posted here just over a week ago. I compared the two to see if they are taken from the same room, but it looks like these two photos are from different manufacturing facilities.
View attachment 132649View attachment 132648

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Top one is IAPO factory in Irkut, that manufactures Su-30SM's and bottom one is KnAAPO in Komsomolsk, that builds Su-35 and Su-57. Su-34's are made at a third different plant in Novosibirsk

sheogorath said:

Top one is IAPO factory in Irkut, that manufactures Su-30SM's and bottom one is KnAAPO in Komsomolsk, that builds Su-35 and Su-57. Su-34's are made at a third different plant in Novosibirsk

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Any idea how many they produce?

SlothmanAllen said:

Any idea how many they produce?

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Hard to tell in part because they seem to switch up the rate of production according to the client, at least for Irkut. The best guess could be extrapolating from the Algerian deal.

According to SIPRI, for the Su-30MKA, 28 were ordered in 2006 with deliveries completed in 2008 and 2009. That would put it at roughly 9 planes per year for Irkut. Mind you, at this time, they were also fulfilling some of the MKI orders for India, between fully built planes and knockdown kits, so Irkut's rate can probably be quite high.





Issue is that the SU-30SM seems to be the least performing Flanker in the war, with the brunt of tasks being carried out by Su-34 and Su-35. The rates for the Fullback in older news seems to float at around 12 per year, with the potential of doubling to 24. No idea about the Su-35.

Very roughly speaking, a dozen of each of the 4 main types in 2024. Give or take. Su-57 production is likely to go over that average while su30 production might be under said average.

It is hard to know since that was peacetime production. They were not working 24/7. It is dependent on state orders.

I doubt there will be that much Su-57 production this year since they were supposed to switch to the Su-57M. And so far there have been no deliveries this year.

A lot of people also talk about tank production numbers and possible lack of tanks. Something I remembered just the other day was that Iran has a full T-72 license. So if the Russians wanted they could order T-72s from Iran and upgrade them. Iran is already sanctioned, so it's not like they would care about sanctions. Same thing could be done with North Korean T-62s.

Something hits Odessa.


Ukrainian mortar point gets knocked out by Russian artillery in the northern sector. Multiple viewpoints indicate multiple drones over the site at once.


FABs arrive at Ukrainian force concentrations near Liptsy.


Su-34 accompanied by Su-35S.


T-62M tanks headed to the front.


FAB-3000 dropped from Su-34.


Wreckage of ATACMS missiles near Lugansk airport. Local AD shot down three missiles.


FH-70 howitzer gets taken out by Lancet from the 238th.


Four FABs land on Ukrainian positions in the Kupyansk direction.


FAB-500s land on Ukrainian positions near Chasiv Yar.


Ukrainian D-30 howitzer had a barrel rupture. This is a result of a worn out barrel.


Maxxpro gets taken out by FPV drone from the Samara Association.


Site of Ukrainian drone operators gets attacked by Russian drones.


Vepr-12 smooth bore shotgun in the hands of a Russian soldier of the 74th MR Brigade. Behind is an abandoned Bradley.


FABs and TOS arriving at Volchansk.


Russian artillery arriving at Ukrainian supply vehicles and UAV operator sites. By the SeverV unit,


Russians advance at Prohes.


Village of Ivano Darivka captured by the Russians as they raised their flag.


FABs arrive at Stepova Novoselivka.


Bridge at Oskil River taken out by an X-38ML missile.


Attempt by Ukrainian drone to ram a Russian Mi-8 misses.


Ukrainian Magura sea drone attack on Sevastopol goes bad as the Russians were ready. First, helicopters with machine guns intercepted the drones and second, it appears Berezhok modules were used firing ATGMs at the drones, likely from BMPs stationed at the pier. You can see from the helicopter's POV the separate ground based fire from the Berezhok.



If you don't know what a Berezhok is, here's a simple intro.



MSTA-B goes into action. During the interview the arty crew manages to hit a Ukrainian field ammo depot in Kherson.