judging by recent russian progress, i am not sure how much bargaining power zelensky will have by jan 2025
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Trumps own words from his debate, "war should have never started, we are so close to WW3, Ukraine is losing, we are wasting billions in this war." The fact that Zelensky isn't freaking out suggest something big might happen to drag western countries into the conflict before Trump starts his presidency. Because the last interview he had with Trump he was making more goofier faces than Biden on TV during that debate.
The Minsk 1 and 2 agreements have failed that didn't guarantee any safety to the citizens in Donetsk, which is why the full demilitarization operation started with proposals the country won't have NATO ascension and to do this full disarmament of Ukraine's forces is needed. Meaning it wouldn't matter if Odessa or Kiev were in Ukrainian hands as in if the UK asks Ukraine they want a Naval base in Odessa it won't happen because Russian forces have control of what goes in and out of the country to prevent any kind of war occurring with weapons targeting Russian civilians. Basically, it would mean that Ukraine is annexed by Russia with their own puppet politicians but will just have the name tag Ukraine on the map and the media and people can assume Ukraine won the war giving Trump bragging rights. If Trump is as confident as he is in ending the war once he takes office, he is probably aware that the proposal from Russia to guarantee no NATO ascension happens is having Russia's own forces monitor what goes in and out of the country which is a necessity for Russia before any further agreements can be agreed upon by Trump. Zelensky can disagree but Trump was hesitant in giving him anymore money in that debate that was shown. Best case for Zelensky is to ask Trump to board the same plane back to the US and seek refuge because he won't be safe in that country anymore.
The Minsk 1 and 2 agreements have failed that didn't guarantee any safety to the citizens in Donetsk, which is why the full demilitarization operation started with proposals the country won't have NATO ascension and to do this full disarmament of Ukraine's forces is needed. Meaning it wouldn't matter if Odessa or Kiev were in Ukrainian hands as in if the UK asks Ukraine they want a Naval base in Odessa it won't happen because Russian forces have control of what goes in and out of the country to prevent any kind of war occurring with weapons targeting Russian civilians. Basically, it would mean that Ukraine is annexed by Russia with their own puppet politicians but will just have the name tag Ukraine on the map and the media and people can assume Ukraine won the war giving Trump bragging rights. If Trump is as confident as he is in ending the war once he takes office, he is probably aware that the proposal from Russia to guarantee no NATO ascension happens is having Russia's own forces monitor what goes in and out of the country which is a necessity for Russia before any further agreements can be agreed upon by Trump. Zelensky can disagree but Trump was hesitant in giving him anymore money in that debate that was shown. Best case for Zelensky is to ask Trump to board the same plane back to the US and seek refuge because he won't be safe in that country anymore.
Ukraine logistics train carrying ammunition, armored vehicles and personnel gets Iskandered.
Insane and Idiot Ukrainian Tiktok soldier tempts fate by sticking his head out. He gets fired with an 82mm mortar but obviously alive from the stunt---otherwise no one would upload the footage.
Niu York gets MLRSed as Russians close in.
A second logistic train carrying tanks, gets Iskandered. Credit goes to SPN units working with Grom Kaskad, formerly the obtf Kaskad unit. Among the tanks are Leopard tanks.
Prechystivka gets FAB'ed again.
Baba Yaga gets taken down with a net drop.
Ukrainian command post in Novgorod, now Niu York, gets a FAB-3000 express delivery. Russians approaching Torestk on this sector.
Three ODABs and a FAB for Ukrainian forces hiding in this forest plantation near Kharkhiv.
Drone strike takes out a Ukrainian firing point in the fifth floor of this building in Chasiv Yar.
Sokol is taken by the Russians in the Pokrovsk front.
17 Ukrainian men caught trying to cross the border to Hungary.
TOS arrives on high rise buildings in Chasiv Yar Kanal microdistrict.
Captured Baba Yaga now working with the Russians after being modded.
This Leleka-100, landed and captured by Russian EW unit, is going to be taken back and modded to work for the Russians instead.
Kamaz trucks, Typhoon-VDV, with BM-30D combat modules, headed to the front.
Lancets are now being used directly on Ukrainian dugouts.
KUB drone strikes Ukrainian field ammo depot in the Kherson region.
UR-77 at work clearing through a minefield.
Ukrainian missed SAM hits a residential building in Dnipropetrovosk.
Russian T-80 tank took three FPV drone attacks like a boss in the Pokrovsk front.
FAB-3000 arrives at Ukrainian PVD (temporary deployment points) in the Kharkhiv region.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft site gets hit by Lancet.
Insane and Idiot Ukrainian Tiktok soldier tempts fate by sticking his head out. He gets fired with an 82mm mortar but obviously alive from the stunt---otherwise no one would upload the footage.
Niu York gets MLRSed as Russians close in.
A second logistic train carrying tanks, gets Iskandered. Credit goes to SPN units working with Grom Kaskad, formerly the obtf Kaskad unit. Among the tanks are Leopard tanks.
Prechystivka gets FAB'ed again.
Baba Yaga gets taken down with a net drop.
Ukrainian command post in Novgorod, now Niu York, gets a FAB-3000 express delivery. Russians approaching Torestk on this sector.
Three ODABs and a FAB for Ukrainian forces hiding in this forest plantation near Kharkhiv.
Drone strike takes out a Ukrainian firing point in the fifth floor of this building in Chasiv Yar.
Sokol is taken by the Russians in the Pokrovsk front.
17 Ukrainian men caught trying to cross the border to Hungary.
TOS arrives on high rise buildings in Chasiv Yar Kanal microdistrict.
Captured Baba Yaga now working with the Russians after being modded.
This Leleka-100, landed and captured by Russian EW unit, is going to be taken back and modded to work for the Russians instead.
Kamaz trucks, Typhoon-VDV, with BM-30D combat modules, headed to the front.
Lancets are now being used directly on Ukrainian dugouts.
KUB drone strikes Ukrainian field ammo depot in the Kherson region.
UR-77 at work clearing through a minefield.
Ukrainian missed SAM hits a residential building in Dnipropetrovosk.
Russian T-80 tank took three FPV drone attacks like a boss in the Pokrovsk front.
FAB-3000 arrives at Ukrainian PVD (temporary deployment points) in the Kharkhiv region.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft site gets hit by Lancet.
Last edited:
The bombs are Soviet stock, so, already paid for, decades ago. I read somewhere that with the glide kit, costs $20k-$30k, but tbh that looks bit expensive. Nonetheless, it's peanuts given it's range, accuracy and destructive power. Lancet drone costs more than the FABs, but can hit moving targets.
Ukrainians complain that the Canadian Rochel Senator APC is a piece of crap. More suitable for police operations than combat operations, and breaks down often.
Another Ukrainian 'police department' is destroyed by a LMUR strike.
FAB-1500 hits a protected dugout of the AFU.
This time a couple of FAB-3000s landed right at the target. Here this appears to be a vehicular hanger and quick repair center in the Kharkhiv region.
More FAB work in the moonlight.
Russian Grad MLRS covers a 'police department' of Ukrainian border troops.
Ukrainian D-30 gets hit by a Lancet.
Ukrainian field depot gets bombed by a quadcopter of the Babst Night Hunters.
FABs land on Ukrainian positions in Kherson.
Lancets take out a couple of Ukrainian BM-21 Grads.
FABs arrive at Parakoskveevka in the Donetsk.
M777 gets taken out by a Lancet near Zoria.
More FABs land in Prechistovka.
FAB-3000 lands in Niu York.
Krasnopol strike on a Ukrainian EW station in the village of Baranovka, Kharkhiv region.
FAB-3000 arrived on the PVD of the 13th Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard of the AFU. Kharkhiv front.
Ukrainians hid an ammo depot among residential homes. An air strike took it out.
Ukrainian howitzer is taken out by a Hyacinth-B of the 238th Artillery Brigade.
Bukovel AD EW station gets taken out by a Lancet.
FAB-250s and a FAB-1500 landing.
Another Ukrainian 'police department' is destroyed by a LMUR strike.
FAB-1500 hits a protected dugout of the AFU.
This time a couple of FAB-3000s landed right at the target. Here this appears to be a vehicular hanger and quick repair center in the Kharkhiv region.
More FAB work in the moonlight.
Russian Grad MLRS covers a 'police department' of Ukrainian border troops.
Ukrainian D-30 gets hit by a Lancet.
Ukrainian field depot gets bombed by a quadcopter of the Babst Night Hunters.
FABs land on Ukrainian positions in Kherson.
Lancets take out a couple of Ukrainian BM-21 Grads.
FABs arrive at Parakoskveevka in the Donetsk.
M777 gets taken out by a Lancet near Zoria.
More FABs land in Prechistovka.
FAB-3000 lands in Niu York.
Krasnopol strike on a Ukrainian EW station in the village of Baranovka, Kharkhiv region.
FAB-3000 arrived on the PVD of the 13th Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard of the AFU. Kharkhiv front.
Ukrainians hid an ammo depot among residential homes. An air strike took it out.
Ukrainian howitzer is taken out by a Hyacinth-B of the 238th Artillery Brigade.
Bukovel AD EW station gets taken out by a Lancet.
FAB-250s and a FAB-1500 landing.
The cost of a FAB years ago was estimated at 1 million rubles, which currently amounts to US$12,580. Meanwhile, guided bombs like KAB were almost triple that value, somewhere around 3 million rubles, which gives a cost of US$34,300, Russia found this price unacceptable and installed the SVP-24 observation and navigation system Hephaestus on aircraft making conventional bombing more accurate, which in no way corresponded to the real situation as demonstrated in Syria and the first year of war in Ukraine, with the VKS dropping dumb bombs tens of meters away because of the threat to defense systems aerial.
That is cheaper than cannon rounds. Before the extensive use of FABs, the Russians routinely fire thousands of rounds of cannons and kill and wound Ukrainians by the hundreds per day. If you do the math, that was about 20 rounds of cannons fired per each Ukrainian kill or wounded. Given that a round of cannon shell cost about $500, that is $10000 per Ukrainian killed or wounded. Each FAB kill or wound at least a dozen people in a building, that comes to $1000 per Ukrainian killed or wounded.