The War in the Ukraine

Another Turtle Tank has surfaced in an assault in the Chasiv Yar direction. Russians are assaulting both flanks of the city.


Kivalov Palace hit by the AFU as a result of a missed SAM trying to intercept an Iskander. The Iskander hit the Odessa pier with no civilian casualties. The missed SAM however, killed 5 Ukrainians at the Palace.


Heavily censored and edited. German Marder freshly knocked out and burning.


Successful Russian assault at Krasnogorovka, led by Turtle Tank through a hailstorm of Ukrainian artillery fire and drone attacks.


FAB hit on a Ukrainian shelter.


Two arrivals of glided OPAB-500 thermobaric bombs on Ukrainian positions in Urozhayne.


Destruction of a Baba Yaga in the air from the view point of a Russian drone.


TOS working on Ukrainian positions in Spirne.


Lancet strike on a tanker and a M113 refueling from it, 19km from the frontline in South Donetsk.


T-64BV destroyed near Chasiv Yar.


Arrivals in Odessa. Air defenses in the area are virtually useless.


General Surovikin in Africa. Could be leading activities related to Wagner operations in support of African regimes.


FAB lands on a concentration of Ukrainian forces in Liptsy.


Would be recruits running away from recruiters in Odessa.

Stealthflanker said:

GLSDB, HIMARS and the JDAM's however have INS. although i doubt it would be in such grade that allow GPSlike accuracy. These are some example of INS/Gyroscope drift/bias

View attachment 128830

Missiles may use Tactical to Navigation grade INS. While strategic is perhaps reserved for ballistic missiles. Say a GLSDB using a 0.18 deg/hr INS, 150 km range and some Mach 2 flight If GPS allows 1 m CEP.. the INS only flight would be 0.18 * 0.06 (0.06 here being 0.06 hours of flight time) It will have CEP of 11 m or 10 times more. Problem is of course whether the weapon have the warhead capacity to compensate for the miss distance.

Case would be more severe for Subsonic weapon.. say JDAM ER. If somehow Ukrainian can use it at maximum range it might miss it mark by 54 meters. If lower cost INS is used.. well can be more.

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So my phone's gps navigation gyro is beyond high end tactical???

SolarWarden said:

Looks like more than half dozen Patriot systems may be for sale soon or US will likely buy them back.
...
It wouldn't surprise me if US is behind the urging for retiring these batteries since they are not meant for a short range saturation rocket attacks the likes hezbollah can bring but cruise and ballistic missiles it can handle. Israeli Patriot took part in shooting down incoming missiles a few weeks ago. This would be huge if Ukraine got their hands on these.

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i.e. Israel does not want the Patriot (they operate the PAC-2) because it is obsolete crap.

SolarWarden said:

Because Israel has their own system that are newer meaning more advanced and data linked with other Israeli made batteries.

David's Sling, unlike Patriot armed with PAC2/3, can take down shorter range rockets and can do the job of PAC-3 missiles. David Sling's missile are also cheaper than PAC-2/3 missiles and the system is easier to maintained than Patriot.

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See above.

Russian missile defenses are supposed to operate as a whole. For example the S-400 batteries are supposed to be covered with Pantsir systems to guard them against low altitude attacks which the standard missiles in the S-400 battery cannot protect against. Even then the Russians sometimes goof it up and something passes through.

US Army air defenses are underdeveloped in comparison. And weak against DEAD attacks. Their air defenses have all sorts of gaps. They use miniguns instead of autocannons for close range defense. Miniguns take time to spool up and won't defend properly against targets which are only detected close to the defense systems. And that's if they even have the miniguns. They might have the Avenger. Which is basically Stingers mounted on a Humvee. Which are IR guided, short range, and probably won't lock up on low heat signature targets like the Geran-2 drones. NASAMS isn't particularly mobile as a system if they even have it. And because these systems suck, even if Patriot worked fine for the targets it was designed to intercept (it was pathetically bad even against low tech Scuds in the Gulf War), because of the gaps in low altitude defense their whole system falls apart. Even if the DEAD attack isn't low altitude, it is also possible to strike by avoiding the arc of coverage of the Patriot just like the Houtis did in Saudi Arabia. Because Patriot can't offer 360 degree coverage like the S-400.

The Israelis have multi layer air defenses including the Iron Beam, Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow. The area they need to guard is also relatively small. And even then the Iranians still managed to hit targets in one of the most protected airbases in Israel with ballistic missiles.

SolarWarden said:

Patriots do more than a fie job in Ukraine taking down cruise and ballistic missiles when they are used they even took down a "zircon glide vehicle" a few weeks ago.

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That's only if you believe Vitali Klitschko. People who know better claim the inside of the warhead in the Zircon and Kinzhal look nothing like that.

During wartime it is common for governments to claim they can guard against hard to stop enemy weapons just to give the population some kind of hope that the government will protect you. The Ukrainian government in particular is notorious for having pulled this sort of stunt before (Ghost of Kiev, etc).

gelgoog said:

i.e. Israel does not want the Patriot (they operate the PAC-2) because it is obsolete crap.

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Israel operates PAC-2GEM+ the latest PAC2 and what Ukraine needs are the radars.

TK3600 said:

So my phone's gps navigation gyro is beyond high end tactical???

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your GPS is. but your INS alone may not be. If your phone's INS does.. you must be rich as there is correlation between INS performance and cost.

Iskander hit on Odessa pier has video footage. This is evidently a cluster munition strike. It is obvious that the purpose is to destroy all the goods that were parked in the pier which should be military related.


Once again the hit on the Palace was self inflicted from a missed Ukrainian SAM attempting to intercept this Iskander.

Damaged but cleaned up Abrams tank on the way to Moscow on the M4 highway. This will be the first Abrams tank to ever reach Moscow.


Update: Reached Moscow.


The Russians have mostly driven out the Ukrainians out of Rabotino at this moment but the suburban village is all but flattened.


Russian special forces using electric scooters?


A column of BTR-82A with extensive cope cages headed to the front.


Efficiency of Excalibur rounds went from 70% to 6% in a mere six weeks due to Russian EW saturation.


Ukrainian men successfully escaped into Romania via tunnel seen in border camera.


Ukrainian mortar site near the border gets taken out by fire from a MSTA-S.


Mi-35M modernized Hind operating in the SMO delivering NARS.

Another hideout base used by Ukrainians falls victim try to a LMUR. In Staromayorsky.


Abrams along with more than 30 units of captured vehicles are on display in Moscow and drawing crowds.


Railway tracks in Kharkhiv gets hit by missile strikes.


Abandoned Bradley. This looks it will be retrieved by the Russians.


FAB hits a building where Ukrainian troops spent the night.


Ukrainian ATGM site hit by MSTA-B howitzer of the 238th Brigade.


Unusual bright flash over the skies in Ukraine might turn out to be a meteor and not a missile. It might also be a falling rocket stage.


Cluster munitions going off on some Ukrainian position.


T-64BV explodes after burning in Artemovosk front.


Lancet hits an M113 and a tanker near Kurakhovsky.


Shelter for Ukrainian UAVs found in Kherson. First hit with a FAB-250 then a FAB-1500.


Kurganets IFV in the training ground.


Looks like a moving Maxxpro taken out by Krasnopol.


Ukrainian transport on fire after a strike.


Position of Ukrainian drone operators hit by FAB.


Ukrainian tank in South Donetsk gets hit by a Lancet.


Incendiaries raining on Ukrainian positions.


Truck was tracked into a large warehouse used by the AFU, which is then precisely shelled, likely by Krasnopols.


We have seen MT-LB turned into makeshift MLRS with naval RBU-6000 units. Now we have an MT-LB mounting a helicopter NARS.


Russians enter Urozhayne.


FABs arriving in Ukrainian sites in Kherson across the Dniepr.


Ukrainian MT-LB with a ZU-23-2 for shooting down drones gets by hit by an FPV drone. Despite this sample being destroyed, MT-LBs with the ZU-23-2 modification appears on both sides suggesting they are popular and effective.


Paladin gets hit by Lancet.

Abandoned Bradley. Beautiful condition. Will be retrieved by the Russians.


Russians using cheap drones as decoys to draw enemy defenses.


British AS-90 SPG gets hit by a Lancet from the 40th Marine Brigade.


Abandoned Bradley put out by FPV drone.


LMUR launched.


Two HIMARS discovered in a forest in the Kupyansk front, subsequently hit by rockets, possibly Tornado-S. Not sure if the results due to dense vegetation.


Ukrainian 120mm mortar gets destroyed near the border.


Odessa burns after another attack. This at the Novaya Postia terminal. Large warehouses are burning. Previous attack on the dock area with cluster munitions may have targeted and destroyed the operational headquarters of the AFU for that region. Hangers at the Shkolny airfield are also burning. Given the size and scale of the fire I think it was the newly arrived ammo.


Iskander M lands on Odessa.


FAB strikes on Ukrainian sites across the Dniepr.


Ukrainian UAVs struck at oil refinery at Ryazan, three UAVs shot down before.


Three ATACMS struck a training ground in the LPR, one landed in a truck stop, two on empty fields.


T-62M converted into EW tank. This one got damaged and immobilized by mines.


Road of Death towards Belgorovka, showing many destroyed Ukrainian vehicles including Puma and Kozaks.


Losses began to surface on the strike on the operational headquarters of the AFU in Odessa including a major.


An attack with an M113 at Pobjeda was discovered by the 255th Regiment and dispatched with a precision strike, possibly Krasnopol.


LMUR and RBK strikes at Ukrainian positions in Kislovka as Russians advance in that area. Note increased usage of these weapons.


House of the head of Rheinmatal set on fire by arsonists for his support on sending weapons to Ukraine.


A refuge used by Ukrainian soldiers gets hit by FPV drone.


Russian artillery, possibly using Krasnopol, disrupts an attempt of troop rotation in the Kupyansk front.


Ukrainian ground based drone with Javelin under testing.


Ukrainian tank hit by Lancet in South Donetsk.


Ukrainians hit residential center of Gorlovka.


Russians enter into Arkhangelskoye after clearing Keramik and Novokalinovo.

Just a note to my previous post. On the first article posted there, the Bradley is still in desert tan camo, like its shipped straight out of the Middle East. That means no time or effort to make it blend with the environment, mods like cope cages to help it deal with drone warfare. The light tan makes it easy to spot on a UAV and appear on an FPV drone camera. This suggests to me these Bradleys, this isnt the only desert tan Bradley I have seen or posted, are newly arrived and being rushed to the frontline without any preparation, suggesting desperation. Likely to belong to the AFU 47th Brigade and in the Avdeyevka front which should now be renamed the Orechetino front to better reflect conditions.

DPA YT channel already reporting more than half of Arkhangelskoye has been taken the Russians.


This cube fragment was found in the Palace in Odessa after being hit by a missile. Such fragments belongs to a SAM.


Fragments from a Buk missile, which are smaller for comparison. This points to a large SAM was fired and missed, falling on the Palace. Probably an S-300.

Additional note.
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This building is likely the southern command headquarters of the AFU in Odessa that was hit by a ballistic missile, maybe Iskander. During the time a missile with cluster munitions hit the Odessa port, a second missile hit this. The S-300 missile was fired in an attempt to intercept these missiles, missed and fell into the palace looking university building.