The War in the Ukraine

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its not what Ukraine is doing with Drones that is concerning, its a lack of equivalent Russian attack that shows Russian lack of similar drone stockpile or lack of Air Defences compared to Ukraine. At this point Russia is losing the strategic air war and strategic naval war. The only war they are not losing is the ground war.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yet at the same time, the Russian force doesn't really capitalize much on the weakness of their enemy. They have the initiative but their units are not seizing upon it sufficiently. Most of the time they are just attacking each other with drones & other munitions.

Since the Adiivka operation they continue this very slow and small scaled pace of positional warfare with a small number of small attacks by squads, platoons and companies to glacially expand the zone of control.

The recent attacks by battalion and company sized armored units don't indicate that they have figured out how to use the tank for maneuver warfare in a sufficiently efficient manner, still the same footage of them getting zero'ed in by Ukrainian artillery. They did not use armor well in the Adiivka fighting last year.

This begs the question- If one day Russia launches massive mechanized offensive at the scale of 2022 will they be as costly as before? Or have they abandoned the classic massed tank attack and moved towards very conservative armor use.

The Ukrainian claims are that the Russian army has developed a sustainable operational tempo meaning that they can continue what they are doing on indefinitely. (relatively low casualties, but very slow territorial gains).

The Russian adherence to positional warfare suggests that Putin's territorial goals are quite conservative (4 annexed provinces) and he is just grinding Ukraine-NATO frontally until they crack economically/run out of equipment/munitions, throw the towel in and step up to negotiate.
There are only large explorations when there are large combined formations in maneuver, something the Russians have never been able to do, and nor the Ukrainians. Both sides were unable to perform combined attacks on the size of a battalion or brigade, both sides tried to do this and have suffered numerous losses, because the risk of reward is high, but the risk of losses is too.
 

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its not what Ukraine is doing with Drones that is concerning, its a lack of equivalent Russian attack that shows Russian lack of similar drone stockpile or lack of Air Defences compared to Ukraine. At this point Russia is losing the strategic air war and strategic naval war. The only war they are not losing is the ground war.
What kind of news are you following! Because even western media talks about how Russia has been pounding Ukraine from east to west with drone & missile strikes on weekly or even sometimes daily bases.

Ukraine says Russia’s attacks are threatening energy security​

March 30, 2024 2:20 AM

Russia fired dozens of missiles and 60 drones at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure Friday, damaging three power plants and causing massive blackouts, according to Ukrainian authorities.

The attack was the latest in a series of intensified Russian strikes in March. Last week, Russia launched over 190 missiles and 140 Shahed drones against Ukraine, Zelenskyy said.

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Russia continues airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure​

March 31, 2024 1:51 PM

Russia launched 16 missiles and 11 drones across Ukraine in overnight air attacks, Ukraine's air force said Sunday morning.

Ukraine’s largest private electricity operator, DTEK, said Saturday that five of its six plants had been damaged or destroyed with 80% of its generating capacity lost, and that repairs could take up to 18 months.

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Russian overnight drone attack damages energy infrastructure in Odesa region​

APR 05, 2024, 07:08 PM

KYIV - A Russian drone attack overnight damaged equipment at energy facilities in Ukraine's southern Odesa region, the national grid company Ukrenergo said on Friday via the Telegram messaging app.

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sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
The current strategic, operational, & tactical situation is quite strange.

NATO is starting to feel around (France in particular) to see the public response of having NATO ground forces in Ukraine. Now they talk about bringing Ukraine into NATO and setting up a 100 billion dollar fund. The Russian MOD and state keep on boasting about their production and recruitment levels. NATO-Ukraine constantly claiming about 'Future Grand Russian offensive' like they always do. US claiming that "Russia almost completely recovered" from their losses in the war.

--At the front the Ukrainian army has degraded so much in quality that it barely resembles the force in 2022. Yet it has become a large conscript force that can occupy buildings and trenchlines. Their defensive backbone appears to be still working, the units hold as well as their drones & artillery.

But when the Russians attack they can barely put out counterattacks (often none at all) and even the Ukrainian general staff doesn't report much except for static defense anymore. So this would imply that the Ukrainian army is vulnerable to attack since they don't have much capability for counterattack. Lack of ammo, low quality of infantry, lack of equipment etc.

Yet at the same time, the Russian force doesn't really capitalize much on the weakness of their enemy. They have the initiative but their units are not seizing upon it sufficiently. Most of the time they are just attacking each other with drones & other munitions.

Since the Adiivka operation they continue this very slow and small scaled pace of positional warfare with a small number of small attacks by squads, platoons and companies to glacially expand the zone of control.

The recent attacks by battalion and company sized armored units don't indicate that they have figured out how to use the tank for maneuver warfare in a sufficiently efficient manner, still the same footage of them getting zero'ed in by Ukrainian artillery. They did not use armor well in the Adiivka fighting last year.

This begs the question- If one day Russia launches massive mechanized offensive at the scale of 2022 will they be as costly as before? Or have they abandoned the classic massed tank attack and moved towards very conservative armor use.

The Ukrainian claims are that the Russian army has developed a sustainable operational tempo meaning that they can continue what they are doing on indefinitely. (relatively low casualties, but very slow territorial gains).

The Russian adherence to positional warfare suggests that Putin's territorial goals are quite conservative (4 annexed provinces) and he is just grinding Ukraine-NATO frontally until they crack economically/run out of equipment/munitions, throw the towel in and step up to negotiate.
I have heard that Russia is building up their forces for a large summer offensive, and the reason they are waiting is because they foresee having a large numerical advantage by then, as more Russians are signing up to be contract soldiers per month than Ukraine can drag into conscription
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Ukrainian sources: At least 6 planes were destroyed: the attack on the Morozovsk airfield was carried out by the SBU together with military personnel and the Defense Forces.

Front-line bombers Su-27, Su-34 were based at the airfield - exactly the types of planes that Russia uses to drop cluster bombs on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian cities close to the front line.

At least 6 Russian military planes were destroyed and another 8 suffered significant damage. In addition to equipment, about 20 Russian soldiers became "casualties" of two or three hundred.
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Ukraine will soon use long-range drones that can attack the Urals and the Arctic region, according to a BILD source.

According to the newspaper, later this year Ukraine will be able to use drones with a range of up to 2000 km and more. They will compensate for the lack of medium and long-range missiles. "Missiles are a thing of the past. Drones are the future." According to the source, by the end of the year, 10 manufacturers will supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with drones with a range of up to 2500 km. And the Kiev KB "Luch" developed the drone "Sokol-3000", which can fly up to 3300 km.

According to BILD calculations, the new Ukrainian weapons will be able to attack targets, for example, in the Murmansk region. About 80 military bases are located there, including the Olenya airfield, where strategic bombers are based.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member

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"The Ministry of Defense reports the destruction of 44 drones while repelling a massive attack in the Rostov region, in particular in Morozovsk, where the airfield is located. As a result of the attack, the electrical substation was damaged.

The enemy also launched an attack on the Engels airfields in the Saratov region (one drone was shot down) and Yeisk in the Krasnodar region (six drones were shot down). One drone was shot down in the Belgorod and Kursk regions."

___

The 238th Brigade hits a Ukrainian Grad and a fire control vehicle.

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TOS hits Ukrainian positions in Umanske.

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FABs striking at Urozhayne.

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Ukrainian UAV control center at Orekhiv bombed.

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Krasnopol hits base of Ukrainian UAV operators in Heorivka.

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TOS hits a Ukrainian mortar point and UAV launch and control point near Kleeshevka.

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Ukrainian ammo depot in Chasiv Yar gets hit. By the 98th VDV. The 98th and Russian aviation also continues to work on Ukrainian positions in the area.

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Russians bomb Ukrainian positions in Vodyne.

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Russians bomb Ukrainian positions in ...

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FABs arrive in Ugledar. This place will get ugly soon. The mine near it also gets bombed again, this time by an ODAB-1500.

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Ukrainian EW station gets taken out by precise artillery likely Krasnopol from the 238th.

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FABs arriving in Niu York, which has been relatively peaceful during the entire SMO.

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Another Ukrainian EW system gets destroyed by Krasnopol.

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"Building concrete hangars would have been a good thing to do, even metal shed would diminish damage... They had two years to do it."

Russians are known to put decoys and even paint pictures of aircraft at airfields. Hence I don't trust reports or images of nicely laid out aircraft in airfields.

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Another P-18 radar gets knocked out by Lancet. 7th radar of this type taken out this year.

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Russians struck a gas storage facility in Lviv region.

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ODAB-1500 lands where a Ukrainian command post is operating.

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House used as a shelter by Ukrainian troops gets hit by a MSTA-B. Such houses are also used by drone operators.

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Ukrainian ammo depot gets hit. Secondary explosions indicate MLRS stored there.

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More ODABs launching. ODABs are more terrifying than FABs, because these are thermobaric.

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Another new batch of BMP-3 being delivered to the RF.

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New batch Su-34s being delivered to the VKS.

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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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"The Ministry of Defense reports the destruction of 44 drones while repelling a massive attack in the Rostov region, in particular in Morozovsk, where the airfield is located. As a result of the attack, the electrical substation was damaged.

The enemy also launched an attack on the Engels airfields in the Saratov region (one drone was shot down) and Yeisk in the Krasnodar region (six drones were shot down). One drone was shot down in the Belgorod and Kursk regions."
The Russian Defense Ministry's claims are the same thing as British intelligence or Ukrainian claims: trash.
 
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