The War in the Ukraine

Kejora

Junior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine air defense went down, so ISR aircraft matters less now. Russia is dumping bombs normally now.

What Russia struggle with is drones. Those are the real intel wunderwaffe.
Russia already outnumber Ukraine in FPV, what they need is more recon drones like Orlan, CH-3, CH-4. They also totally lacking HALE UAV like WZ-7 to provide expanded surveillance of the battlefield.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
It was meant to be a foregone conclusion the moment Russia cross the border yet here we are.

Sure NATO has exposed that its arms industry is not up to the task, but to say that Ukraine has lost is still premature.

A 100m advance into a pile of slag is now seen as a major development, I struggle to see how this can be seen as a one sided war if Ukraine can still hold ground.

How many times do we have to retread the same d ground? Ukrainian resistance is sustained by western arms and rivers of Ukrainian blood.

Despite how much the Reddit-brigades cope and spin, it is Ukraine that is doing meat assaults to hold off the Russians at incredible and unsustainable cost in lives.

The Russian don’t fight pretty and the Ukrainians are getting more than their fair share of small scale tactical wins, but as the old parable goes, only amateurs focus on tactics while generals focus on logistics, and that is what the Russians have been focusing and dominating in. And ultimately, that is where this war will be won and lost.

The West is loosing the logistics war so badly it’s like they don’t even realise where the true contest is.

The Russians, to their credit, are also clear-eyed enough about their own strengths and shortcomings as to not go needlessly seeming bloody noses to try and prove stupid points, unlike another ‘traditional’ military ‘tough guy’ with an abundantly evident inflated and no longer merited martial reputation.

The Russians are playing a mini-max game to their strengths of bleeding NATO dry of arms and Ukraine of blood while trying to minimise their own battlefield losses. They don’t need decisive battlefield wins to win this war, all they need to do is maintain pressure and momentum and wait to see if it’s NATO that runs out of arms and will first, or Ukraine runs out of blood first. The Russians win either way.

The less idiotic amongst the western elite are starting to realise this no-win situation they are stuck in, which is why the calls to cut their losses and stop propping up Ukraine are getting louder in western capitals. The west has already peaked in terms of how much damage they can do to Russia in this war, which turned out to be a hell of a lot less than they originally hoped. Now, the longer the west stays propping up Ukraine, the more damage the Russians gets to inflict back on them.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Two Russian stormtroopers assault this Ukrainian position and got five prisoners.


Russian troops clearing out Ukrainian held trenches and strongholds towards the Rabotino area. Two Ukrainian soldiers seen surrendering.


MSTA-S knocks out a Ukrainian stronghold. Given the explosion it must contain a field ammo depot. Last scene of the video points to Krasnopol being used even if it wasn't mentioned in the commentary.


Ukrainian military facility in Kherson struck by a wave of Geran drones. This time we got a first person viewpoint from a Ukrainian soldier filming the event as the drones struck with all the sounds of explosions and shouting. (I get the feeling people will do anything to post things to TikTok.)


Russian troops clearing out the last Ukrainian remnants in Marinka. The northwest sector was the last to fall.


FAB-1500 hits smack right into a Ukrainian troop concentration in Tyaginka as they prepare to cross the Dniepr into Krynki.

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Two Ukrainian SPGs and a tank destroyed by Lancets from a Far Eastern Special Forces unit in Avdiivka.

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Su-34 drops KAB-1500 with UMPK towards targets in Kherson.

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Ukrainian T-72M1 must have been hit by something really bad to blow up like that. This in Rabotino area.

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Russian artillery strikes on the left side of the Dniepr where Ukrainian boats are moored.

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15 Ukrainian boats were taken out by Russian UAV operators.

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Successful aerial interception by a Russian SAM.

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Storm troopers of the Russian 40th Brigade as they begun what turned out to be a successful operation that captured three strongholds and captured 12 prisoners.

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LMUR headed to a small shop used by the Ukrainians as a transhipment point between Tyaginka and Krynki.

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Ukrainian fortifications hit by artillery from the 60th Brigade in South Donetsk.

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Reuters --- Ukrainian troops face artillery shortage

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One after another Ukrainian dugouts being destroyed by FPV drones of the 110th Brigade.

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Russians have 5 to 10 times more FPV drones --- Ukrainian commander "Madyar".

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DPR personnel finds a trove of secret documents by Ukrainian secret police.

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Almost all the Black Sea Fleet has relocated to Novorossiysk, including all missile carriers.

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More FAB bombing on the Ukrainian side of Kherson on force or troop concentrations.

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UAV operators dropping bombs at Ukrainian boats in the Dniepr.

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ukrainian IFV burning somewhere in the LPR, after being hit by an FPV drone.

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More FAB bombing in Krynki at positions of the Ukrainian Marines.

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Another camouflaged Ukrainian howitzer gets taken out by Lancet.

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M777 gets destroyed in the Bakhmut direction.

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122mm rockets from Grad MLRS of group Lotos hitting Ukrainian positions.

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The Kyiv Independent becomes increasingly depressing.

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Ukraine's army is struggling to find good recruits --- The Economist

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KZSP-0.5. Warhead mass of 0.5. This munition is specifically produced for dropping from quadcopters. Long gone are the days of makeshift grenades and mortars. Drone bombing now has puposedly built bombs at least for the Russian side.

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Compilation of recent vehicular kills by FPV drones by the Sudoplatov Battalion, including a Leopard 2A6, CV-90, T-72M1 and various BMPs and APCs.

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Russian artillery continues to strike deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kupyansk.

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Ukrainian DRG gets direct hit from Russian artillery, all under thermal vision.

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phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia already outnumber Ukraine in FPV, what they need is more recon drones like Orlan, CH-3, CH-4. They also totally lacking HALE UAV like WZ-7 to provide expanded surveillance of the battlefield.
I dont think the battleground is optimal for HALE UAVs, we've seen Baykars being completely obliterated out of the battlefield in first few weeks. They're a great way of providing persistence and cheap surveillance in uncontested zones.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
It was meant to be a foregone conclusion the moment Russia cross the border yet here we are.

Sure NATO has exposed that its arms industry is not up to the task, but to say that Ukraine has lost is still premature.

A 100m advance into a pile of slag is now seen as a major development, I struggle to see how this can be seen as a one sided war if Ukraine can still hold ground.


Ukraine is holding the current stalemate due to its willingness and tolerance for enormous human casualties but has a limited supply.

While Russia's main advantage point is pretty much the serious overproduction (equipment) advantage it has over Ukraine (the West).

(It has close to the same production capacity as the entire West combined but the West can't send 100% to Ukraine to save for their own militaries, while Russia can).

And as we see, Russian industrial production is still rising through 2023 as well in all parameters, and will continue to rise,

But Ukrainian advantage (the amount of human sacrifices they can throw) will slowly decline in the future, that's how Russia will break the stalemate.

Once Ukraine loses the majority of its fighting force, including the extremely old, young, and disabled, males, it's currently sending, because of its limited supply.

You can say the West will try to send more mercenaries, but who will want to go there with such a high death rate? Not a lot of fighters, even with a lot of money promised.

This can last 5-10 more years, but Russia should win completely in the end, even though it already won pretty much.

They took 20% highest quality territory from Ukraine, without much economic losses, not the other way around. Stopped them from going into NATO, etc.

Whereas, Ukraine was thrown back into the stone age, demographically, economically, and infrastructurally, etc, not Russia and Putin.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Ukraine went from having over 45 million citizens in 2014 to like 34 million citizens today. They lost over 10 million citizens.
A lot of those people moved to either the EU or Russia and will likely never go back.

Some people claim that Ukraine have even lower population than that currently. Their population growth is also deeply negative and has been so since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Back then Ukraine had 52 million citizens.

Ukrainian demographics are simply dismal.

Compare this with Russia which a lot of people say has a demographic problem. Russia went from having 148 million citizens in 1991 to 146 million citizens in 2022. While the number of births in Russia isn't stellar, they have had a significant migratory flow incoming from other countries in the former Soviet Union.

People who compare the Russian campaign in Ukraine 2022 with US invasion of Iraq in 2003 don't know what they are talking about. Iraq back then had like 24 million population, had been sanctioned for three decades, and had most of its ground army destroyed by the US when they retreated from Kuwait after the Gulf War. After they had signed a cease fire with the US.
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The truth is that Iraq managed to conserve most of its armed forces in the Gulf War by hiding it from air strikes. The US campaign in Kuwait was largely not successful in destroying their army. The US only managed to destroy the Iraqi Army with shenanigans like this.

The destruction of the Iraqi Army when they were evacuating from Kuwait in 1991 together with the sanctions which did not allow them to rearm is what enabled the 2003 invasion to be so successful. The US armed forces were also able to move much faster because of Iraq's highly modern highway system. Compare that with the dirt roads in Ukraine which turn into slush for like half the year. But as a result the US got into a long term quagmire in Iraq against insurgents.

Ukraine in comparison had been upgrading its army since 2014 with hundreds of modernized T-64 tanks entering service every year. These were upgraded in factories at Kharkiv and Lviv with Western thermal sights, encrypted radios, electronic battlefield management systems, and upgraded engines. They inherited a huge amount of latest generation Soviet air defenses from the 1980s being in the former Soviet border area. These were at least one if not two decades more modern than anything that Iraq had and were available in much larger numbers. Their air defenses were also modernized since then. Trump gave them thousands of latest generation ATGMs when he was in power. More came in supposedly last year together with thousands of MANPADS. They get hundreds of billions in funding and equipment from the West. So it is totally different. Yet even then Ukraine is losing.

Much like Obama said in Ukraine it is Russia that has escalatory dominance. People who compare the Ukraine conflict with Vietnam don't know what they are talking about either. Ukraine is right next to Russia's population core. It isn't an ocean away.
 
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OTCDebunker

New Member
Registered Member
You can say the West will try to send more mercenaries, but who will want to go there with such a high death rate? Not a lot of fighters, even with a lot of money promised.
Let us hope and pray that the west is stupid enough to actually do just that.

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Dude was an actual Special Forces veteran.

In America, everybody still thinks the SEALs are the best (lol)...because they are the best at propaganda, marketing, advertising, public relations, selling movies, and whoring themselves out to Hollywood and video games.

The truth is that it's probably the Green Berets. Army Special Forces. Like that guy.

Vaunted United States Captain America Super Soldier Special Forces Ultra Top-Secret Black Ops Tier Hyper 1 War Hero...pwned by some Russian purse snatchers and drug dealers.

OK fine maybe I can be nicer, but keep in mind that these are the same guys who HAPPILY AND GLEEFULLY committed all sorts of war crimes in the Middle-East and they would be happy to do so again against China or any other global south countries. Oftentimes targeting women, children, elderly, the disabled, etc.

These guys were more than happy to brag about how they were the best when they were bullying weak countries obviously not capable of defending themselves or their people.

But man oh man do they cry when the other guy now can also call in airstrike on them.

There are other American mercenaries who similarly complained about how the Russians were calling in airstrikes and artillerly barrages on them...things that they were not used to in Iraq and Afghanistan.

So ya, go ahead, send more mercenaries America.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Ukraine military seeks extra 500,000 soldiers - President Zelensky​

President Zelensky sought to strike a confident note during his two-hour long press-conference

Ukraine's military wants to mobilise up to 500,000 extra people, President Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed, as the war with Russia nears a two-year mark.

Where are they going to find that many willing conscripts?
 
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