The War in the Ukraine

Seems to me that Biden made an error in combining Ukraine and Israel aid together with immigration reform. I think there’s a lot of political theater going on and aid for Ukraine will ultimately pass, because so much has been invested to let go now. If Democrats concede the border provisions to Republicans, it would be a major poison pill for Biden in 2024, though.


Orban on the other hand is trying to coalesce Republicans against Ukraine but the that really depends on who ends up going to his closed door meeting.

Aegis21 said:

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Seems to me that Biden made an error in combining Ukraine and Israel aid together with immigration reform. I think there’s a lot of political theater going on and aid for Ukraine will ultimately pass, because so much has been invested to let go now. If Democrats concede the border provisions to Republicans, it would be a major poison pill for Biden in 2024, though.

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Orban on the other hand is trying to coalesce Republicans against Ukraine but the that really depends on who ends up going to his closed door meeting.

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Ukraine aid won't pass. GOP can't afford to pass it. If they do, they lose their support base. And 2024 is election year. Nothing will pass. Neither immigration or Ukraine. Biden can't afford to block immigration. If he does, bye bye election. The only thing that will happen is status quo. No border bill. No Ukraine aid.

Mi-28MN strike with LMUR on another shelter used by Ukrainian troops in Krynki.


Gerans arrive in Snergiyovka in Kherson region.


Another Ukrainian tank gets hit by Lancet, this in the Vremevsky sector. This was done with infrared vision, and judging from the explosion, must have hit the ammo. A new warhead maybe making Lancets more lethal lately, along with thermal vision and target autolocking. Tank might be a Western type.


Installation of Russian flag on Marinka previously occupied by Ukraine.


3rd Brigade 'Azov' of the AFU withdrawn from Artemovosk sector for reconstruction. This is indication that the unit has taken severe casualties and is nearly depleted.


Ukrainian forces near Gorlovka under heavy Russian fire.


Russians push north of Soledar to close the Siversk salient.


Russians advance in Rabotino, taking some fortifications.


Russians advance through Khromovo.


Ukrainian troop concentration spotted in Kupyansk sector and treated to a massed saturation MLRS attack, likely with Grads. Courtesy of the 25th Brigade.


FPV drones from the Gorb detachment hits a Ukrainian field ammo depot in Belgorovka area.


FPV drone hits a pickup used by Ukrainian forces in the Kremenna direction.


Ukrainian field ammo cache in Krynki found by Russian quadcopter with night vision and subsequently bombed. Note the predominance of night vision drones lately.


Production of Kontakt-1 ERA for Russian tanks.

Temstar said:

Even if they do that, it's not like Russians are asleep along the rest of the front. Russians are also gaining ground around Bakhmut at the same time:
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The more resources are thinned out elsewhere into Avdeevka the more you expose places like Chasiv Yar.

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The biggest problem right now for Ukrainian government is not the front it's the dwingling of funding and power. The oligarchs and politicians that are in power in Ukraine care more about protecting themselves from a coup than the front moving 10km... or conscripts getting killed.

I'm quite surprised that they didn't arrested Zaluzhnyi, the only reason is probably that it have enough support to stay put for now but the situation could change if loyal units are destroyed.

Atomicfrog said:

The biggest problem right now for Ukrainian government is not the front it's the dwingling of funding and power. The oligarchs and politicians that are in power in Ukraine care more about protecting themselves from a coup than the front moving 10km... or conscripts getting killed.

I'm quite surprised that they didn't arrested Zaluzhnyi, the only reason is probably that it have enough support to stay put for now but the situation could change if loyal units are destroyed.

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Attempting to arresting Zaluzhny is likely to lead to an uprising/coup, and Zaluzhny has control over much more troops than Prigozhin.

If the US wants to do a cut and run without Ukraine collapsing entirely they will need Zaluzhny, but not necessarily Zelensky. To sigh an armistice and basically declaring the war lost requires a decorated war hero like Philippe Pétain or Valery Zaluzhny, your Vincent Auriol types are not required. If Zelensky make a move on Zaluzhny he's likely to incur the wrath of all his western backers.

I wouldn't rule it out completely though, crazier things have happened in history.

Staedler said:

Has any such encirclement been actively reversed out so far in this war? IIRC, it's always ended in closing of the salient or just retreat by the other side.

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Right in the beginning, Mariupol most notably, but that's about it.

According to a Russian pilot interview by TASS, the release of UMPK bombs is done at 11.000m(36,000ft). Should give a rough idea of how far those things can glide



Russians seems to be modifying several trench lines to make them more resistant to drone attacks

Artillery landing on Ukrainians in South Donetsk. Looks like TOS.


Another batch of modernized BMP-2M delivered with Berekzhok combat module.


"The armament complex of the combat department «Berezhok» consists of a 30 mm automatic gun 2A42, a 7.62 mm PKTM machine gun, a 30 mm automatic grenade launcher AG-30M and two dual launchers PTRK «Kornet». Also installed modern fire control system (SUO) with thermal imaging sight of the gunner and panoramic sight of the commander."

Two Ukrainian tanks and an SPG gets destroyed by the VDV in the right bank of Dniepr using Lancets.


Port of Rajin busy. Here containers from the DPRK being transferred to Russia.


Rare BTR-90 spotted in Avdiivka. It appears abandoned but intact, probably evacuated later for repairs.


Polish 120mm self propelled mortar Rak spotted in Ukraine. With only 8km range, this might be vulnerable to FPV drones.


Self inflicted. M777 got flipped over. Fell off a transport?


Captured Ukrainian FPV drone that was landed by Russian EW.


Older but unpublished footage of two FAB-500s hitting a Ukrainian position near Novomikhailovka.


Ukrainian commando boat in Dniepr sinks after attack by Russian quadcopter with mortar drop and thermal imaging.


Artillery of the Sever-Z unit takes out a Ukrainian machine gun nest.


Ukrainian squad hit by ATGM from Russian special forces in Artemovosk.

gelgoog said:

I told you it would happen. That the Russians could move small corvettes like a Karakurt, Buyan, or Kilo class submarines through the canal system. Talk that these need to pass through the Turkish Straits, as I have seen said by other OSINT "experts", to get there is bullshit. Russia can move these boats through the canal system just fine. And just that would be more than enough to counter whatever ships Ukraine has available at its disposal after they lost their fleet.

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Kilo draft is 6.2m. Canal is 2.5 - 4m deep, with locks at 3.6m.

_killuminati_ said:

Kilo draft is 6.2m. Canal is 2.5 - 4m deep, with locks at 3.6m.

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"And yet it moves."

I gave you historic examples of it already having been done. Of course you can just ignore reality.



Here is a Kilo submarine being launched into the Volga river at the shipyard I mentioned.