The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog said:

The noise of the zsu-23 firing is insane ! Cannot imagine how the mind state of people at the receiving end.

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Men: Ranges from "I'm just a tourist" to "fuck Zel".
Women: "I want to go back to the kitchen".

plawolf said:

This is actually a really great illustration on why AI automation is the going to be both the main bottleneck and pathway to unlocking the true potential of suicide drones.

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Eventually, yes, but right now zalas/lancets with AI(you can see in videos how they suggest targets to operators) are still highly vulnerable to decoys.
Even humans are, but AI just loves badly made, obscured decoys.

At least as of yet i'd rather go to point-to-point solutions(satellite, inertial, or some other point of navigational) weapons for this purpose.

Atomicfrog said:

The noise of the zsu-23 firing is insane ! Cannot imagine how the mind state of people at the receiving end.

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I think that's either a 30mm 2A42 or 2A70. BMPs, BMDs, BTRs had a mass modernization migration to the 30mm autocannon matched to a dual or quartet of ATGMs. Even the Ukrainians have upgraded their BMPs to the same theme too which points to that fact the weapon is exceedingly effective whether you are in the giving or receiving end. To see a video where this weapon is being used --- and I have seen both sides using it in trench warfare --- is quite a sight and a delight to find.

plawolf said:

This is actually a really great illustration on why AI automation is the going to be both the main bottleneck and pathway to unlocking the true potential of suicide drones.

If the Russians are building 300k FPV drones, then that’s artillery shell numbers. But unlike artillery, which can blast off a round and then immediately load the next, FPV operators need to stick with the drone from take off to impact, so there is no concept of RPM, and more like sorties per hour/day.

So that means the practical battlefield impact of the vast production differences might not be that great if both sides only have a relatively small and comparable number of FPV operators/pilots.

With automation, that operator bottleneck disappears and you can launch FPV drones by the dozen, by the hundreds or even thousands. Imagine thousands of drones coming at your position in a vast sun-block swarm, each going after individual soldiers, tanks and hard points based on need and payload. There is no defence against that. The power that can operationalise such a capability will enjoy an overwhelming battlefield dominance similar to what was achieved with the first mass introduction of PGMs.

But neither Ukraine or Russia are anywhere close to that right now or anytime soon. The only powers who might have such a capability deployed or capable of being deployed reasonably soon are China and the US.

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I think the battlefield is too complex an environment to be simplified into algorithms right now. Right now let's keep it at KISS. You may not want the drones going Skynet on your own troops.

The Russians have matched their FPV drone output or just drones in general including the Lancet and Orlan by fully institutionalizing drone training in all military branches including Spetznaz, Airborne, Motorized Rifle, and Marines. Drone 101 is now part of your basic military training. That also includes ethnic volunteer groups like the Chechens. In contrast, NATO still refuses drone training for the Ukrainians and the Ukrainians need to do this back in their soil.

The Russians also utilize special forces groups that specialize in drone warfare and are often volunteer manned. These include:

Obtf Kaskade or Kaskad Battalion (DPR, ex-AFU)
Sparta Battalion (DPR)
Sudoplatov Battalion (DPR, ex-AFU)
Bobmorf or Beaver detachment (this is either a Russian Marine or Chechen group).
The Klen or Maple Battalion (part of the 247th Cossacks VDV Regiment).
The 14th Spetznaz Brigade
The 22nd Spetznaz Brigade
The Black Hussars
The Siberians

Soldier30 said:

Despite the fact that the Russian Strela-10 air defense system was developed in 1974, and in 2014 it was upgraded to the Strela-10MN version of the air defense system, as it turned out, this air defense system can operate quite effectively against small-sized targets. The air defense system can operate covertly and has 8 9M333 missiles; the complex is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 5000 meters and an altitude of 3500 meters. The 9K35M air defense missile system is valued for its simplicity and reliability. The story of a Russian operator about the effectiveness of the Strela-10MN air defense system in Ukraine.

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Strela 10 is popular among Ukrainians too. Saw a Ukrainian Strela 10 popping Russian UAVs out of the sky one after another. Hence these units are prioritized for Lancet and Krasnopol strikes.

Once again Shoigu got a chance to reenact his favourite Reichstag scene, complete with the correct unit. (150th Motor Rifle Division was the actual unit that placed the flag on top of the Reichstag)

muddie said:

There are Western think-tanks that provide actual non-biased views on the Ukraine War, but they don't get much air time or coverage, especially in MSM.

In Western media, it is currently politically incorrect to provide any positive coverage on Russia (and China for that matter) so the most prominent think-tanks are the individuals that tell the Western public what they want to hear.

At the end of the day, think-tanks are out to make money, their views have no impact on the outcome on the battlefield and it is just better business to go with the flow.

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Some think tanks (just like media houses) are just peddling the state narrative, as part of the information war, the absurdity of which becomes apparent when the reality on the ground never intersects the narrative that was being perpetuated. One that really made me laugh was the narrative on the Afghan Invasion: "ragtag Taliban lost all the battles (state narrative), yet somehow won the war (ground reality)". In the current Russian/Ukranian war, a narrative was peddled that Russia ran out of missiles more than a year ago, yet the ground reality proved otherwise literally every single day.

Western audience, generally, are very gullible with short memory spans. They believe easily and forget quickly; the incongruity of state narratives against ground realities never really registers in their minds to have any kind of meaningful impact.

Tam said:

Sudoplatov Battalion (DPR, ex-AFU)

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I heard Sudoplatov got hit in the field, are they fine i wonder ?

This is the LMUR strikes on the tunnel entrance of the Avdiivka coke plant. The entrance itself faces the terracone or coke ash heap, the strategic high ground to the entire area. There were not one but two LMURs that struck through the entrance. I do wonder why a FAB isn't used, which would have shut the entrance completely.


Ukrainian Buk system gets taken by a Russian precision strike, what exactly isn't mentioned. The strike is about 50km from the front and I don't see a Lancet used. Unless it's a capture I don't think Ukrainians have the Buk M2, so this is likely the Soviet era Buk system.


Lancet hits a Ukrainian howitzer that was in the process of being ammo resupplied from another truck.


Russian ATV team managed to outrun a Ukrainian FPV drone attacking them in a tense moment.


Su-30SM2 and Yak-130 new batches of aircraft handed over to the VKS from the Irkutsk aircraft plant.


100mm Rapira anti tank gun, hitting a Ukrainian stronghold with the aid of a drone.


Large FAB strike at Ukrainian positions in Tyaginka in the right side of Dniepr.


Lancet hits a Ukrainian tank firing from a forest line in the Vremsky Ledge.


FAB attacks on the Avdiivka fortified area.


Not just a Russian flag but the Victory Banner is hoisted over the ruins of Marinka.


Su-24M with a FAB-500M62 with UMPC. More and more Russian aircraft adapted to the FAB/UMPC. Su-25 next?


Krasnopol strikes on a Ukrainian shelter in Novomikhailovka.


Ka-52M undergoing flight tests. This version will now be able to use the LMUR, previously fired only from the Mi-28MN. In exchange, a version of the Vikhr antitank missile exclusive for the Ka-52, will be adapted for the Mi-28MN.


Ukrainian Grad MLRS taken out by Lancet with a new thermal imager.


Russian paratroopers hit Ukrainian boats on the right side of Kherson with Lancets.


Likely a Krasnopol shot. Ukrainian ammo depot taken out in the Kharkhiv region.


Kherson direction. Shelter used by Ukrainian troops gets hit.


The frigate Admiral Makarov earns it's title as 'Guards' by decree of Putin for it's achievements.


Two FAB hits. Undisclosed area.


ATGM from the Cluni detachment takes out a Ukrainian stronghold.


Ka-52 takes out a Ukrainian vehicle with a Vikhr.


Krasnopols get busy on Ukrainian landings and targets in the Dniepr.

Russians have managed to capture and tow back a Bradley.

Nice, now do it again with Leopards and have a complete family. 1A5, 2A4, 2A5/A6 and Strv-122.

A 2S3 Akasya doing it's work on Ukrainian positions in Svatovo Kremennaya front.


It's becoming a trend. Lancet with thermal imager hits a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian squad gets hit by artillery of the 132nd Brigade somewhere near Gorlovka.


Ukrainian EW complex, Bukovel AD, gets hit by a Russian FPV drone.


M88 evacuating a burning Bradley.


A Bradley of the 47th Brigade of the AFU has an unfortunate encounter with a Upyr or Vampire FPV drone.


Russian tank hits a Ukrainian IFV in the area of Artemovsk.


Another Ukrainian Grad falls victim to a Lancet with thermals in Zaporozhye. Many Grads were supplied to Ukraine from Eastern European inventories, using indigenous transporters different from the ones used by the Soviets and Russians.


A 2S1 Gvozdika gets hit by a Lancet in the Kupyansk direction.


A masked something of the AFU is spotted by a UAV and is hit by a Lancet.


Geran strikes reported on the Starokonstantine airport in Khmelnitsky region.


Ukrainian howitzer gets hit in the Tyaginka area in Kherson by Russian counterbattery fire.


Tank of the 1st Slavyansk Brigade working on Ukrainian positions.


Ukrainian soldier films inside the Avdiivka coke plant and shows what it looks like right now.


Russians restored anti drone barriers around Sevastopol that was damaged in the storm.


Russian sappers enter grey zone in Zaporozhye to do demining work.


Two IFVs of the AFU burns after getting hit by Kornets fired by the VDV in Zaporozhye .


Ukrainian stronghold taken by the 76th VDV Division in Rabotino.


Poland blocking delivery of American boats to Ukraine.


UR-77 throws it's load at Ukrainian positions in Kremennaya area.


M109 gets hit by Lancet. This time we get to see a closeup of the destruction done to the howitzer.


Chinese Type 69 RPG in the hands of a Ukrainian soldier. This was probably from an intercepted Iranian shipment to Yemeni Houthis and turned over to Ukraine.


Two converted S-200 missiles were shot down by Russian AD over the Sea of Azov according to Russian MoD.