The War in the Ukraine

Russian resources in that region are poor compared to the rest of the contact line. They relied too much on the river as a natural barrier.

Ukraine will face the same problems Russia faced in Kherson trying to resupply over water, so it will be difficult for Ukraine to advance, but they can definately cause major problems here.

If they cant produce enough air power sorties to make up for the lack of manpower there, then the prospect of Ukrainian taking the left bank could be real.

That's only about 200-300 Km from Crimean airbases e.g Dzhankoi and Kirovskoye.

Yet i havent really see the willingness to carry out the plan in Ukrainian side. Those two airbases would be the prime target for ATACMS or whatever else they have in mind in order to disrupt Russian air power. Or at least deployment of long range Air defense assets e.g Patriot or whatever left of their S-300 regiment to Kherson.

Otherwise any Ukrainian invading force will subject to UMPK bombardment or Su-25 spamming S-8's. With their CAP's got sniped or harassed by Su-35 with R-37 or R-77-1.

Stealthflanker said:

Otherwise any Ukrainian invading force will subject to UMPK bombardment or Su-25 spamming S-8's. With their CAP's got sniped or harassed by Su-35 with R-37 or R-77-1.

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From the videos circulating, it seems that's exactly what's happening, they are getting peppered with UMPK's. Su-25's are lacking in the area, guess the threat of AD around Kherson is still big compared to Avdiivka and Kupyansk.


The Guardian article about how optimism in Kiev has faded due to a mix of factors, from the failure of the counteroffensive to the internal tensions within Zelensky's team, the Israeli war soaking up resources and attention and the prospect of Republican victory.

Still, a

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with Zelenskiy by the journalist Simon Shuster, who has written a forthcoming biography of the president and has enjoyed unusually close access to his team, suggested that even within Zelenskiy’s inner circle there were people who doubted his messianic belief in Ukraine’s victory.

Shuster quoted a frustrated Zelenskiy aide who said the president was delusional about the prospect of victory on the battlefield. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that,” said the aide.

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tamsen_ikard said:

What's going on with Ukraine capturing area on the east side of the Dnieper river. Is this a credible invasion. Why has Russia not dislodged them yet?

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I would rather have four elite Marine brigades making a difference in Kleeshevka, Kremenna, Rabotino, Avdiivka, Kupyansk, instead of what increasingly smells like a fire sack in Kherson being bombed indiscriminately by FABs. No coincidence that the Russian forces in Kherson are led by Col. Gen. Teplinsky who engineered the fire sacks in Kherson last year and the fire sacks in Zaporozhye this year.

Compilation of recent kills made by the Sudoplatov Battalion using VT-40 FPV drones. Among the kills are a Maxxpro and a Stridsvagn 122 or Swedish Leopard.


Ukrainian troops in the midst of rotation gets hit by a Russian mortar attack. This is a common Russian tactic to await and hunt for evacuation and rotation events and hit them.


MSTA-B 2A65 152mm howitzer at work. One of the workhorses of the Russian artillery.


This M113 at the Svatovo Kremenna area was captured by the Russians.


Two FABs with UMPC strike Novomikhailovka. The effects can be felt 3km from the blast site.


Russian Marines of the 810rd Brigade at work in the left bank of the Dniepr.


122mm D-30 howitzer of the 1st Donetsk Army at work. The howitzer is a workhorse for both sides of the conflict.


UAV operators of the special unit Akhmat (not sure if this is related to Chechen Akhmat brigades) guiding artillery towards Ukrainian positions in the Kremenna region.


This used to be the operating headquarters of a Ukrainian UAV control group. Used to be, because Russian aviation struck it.


Looks like a 2S3 Akasya, an SPG that's a workhorse for both sides of the conflict.


Ukrainian troops went into this dilapidated house as a shelter. A Russian FPV drone quickly followed them into it. Drone courtesy of the Siberian Association special forces unit.


This in Kremenna. Footage of MT-LBs mounting old school AA guns. Both sides are modding MT-LBs this way in parallel.


Tornado-G at work in Zaporozhye.


Shell supplies to Ukraine reduced more than 30% after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip --- ABC News


M777 sinking in the mud. This time the enemy is the weather.


T-62M modernized in South Donetsk. This one has the 1P96MT thermal imaging sight fitted.


BTR-60s being pulled out of reserve, refitted and modernized to be sent to battle.


Ukrainian DRG moving through the night gets tracked and hit by ATGM. These sort of strikes happen again and again for well over a year now and these DRGs do not take enough measures to reduce their thermal signatures. Do the Ukrainians still believe up to now that the Russians lack thermal imaging sights?

Zelensky now publicly criticizing Zaluzhny, giving statements like:

“If you manage war keeping in mind that tomorrow you will do politics or elections, then in your words and on the front line you behave as a politician and not as a military man, and I think that is a huge mistake.”

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“With all the respect to Gen Zaluzhny and to all the commanders who are on the battlefield, there is an absolute understanding of the hierarchy and that is it, and there can’t be two, three, four, five."

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lucretius said:

Russian resources in that region are poor compared to the rest of the contact line. They relied too much on the river as a natural barrier.

Ukraine will face the same problems Russia faced in Kherson trying to resupply over water, so it will be difficult for Ukraine to advance, but they can definately cause major problems here.

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yes i dont think russia was trying to lay a trap for ukraine there, but as the battlefield evolves ukrainian occupation of the left bank could end up becoming counter-productive to them. i dont see how they can support a large scale attack across a river. if the occupation of krinky becomes permanent and ukraine continues to feed troops into this sector, at some point they might not be able to get them all back.

drowingfish said:

yes i dont think russia was trying to lay a trap for ukraine there, but as the battlefield evolves ukrainian occupation of the left bank could end up becoming counter-productive to them. i dont see how they can support a large scale attack across a river. if the occupation of krinky becomes permanent and ukraine continues to feed troops into this sector, at some point they might not be able to get them all back.

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The biggest problem facing that occupation on the left bank is that Ukraine have no way to secure a landing zone for enough troops to be more than a nuisance. Any buildup of forces and armored vehicules will be fab bombed.

Sure that they can use a forward operation position on the left bank to infiltrate some toops to do recon and sabotage but from a known position is even harder to achieve some kind of success.

Probably better to use that landing zone to deter attention of other small landings of recon and sabotage teams.

Interview done to a Bradley crew member that participated in the initial assault on Rabotino. Mentions that before being trained on Bradleys, they already received infantry and mechanized training as there was no clear idea of where to focus manpower and that while they trained on advancing on fortified positions, the training didn't include how to handle mine fields.

A lot of the expectations hinged on the Russians running away when spotting the Bradleys and Leopards but they got hammered hard by Russian artillery, UAV's and aviation instead.

Destroyed T-64BV and burned down BMP-2 of the AFU.


Hidden howitzer taken out in the Vremsky Ledge by Lancet.


Another M777 taken out by Lancet.


Note thermal imaging of the drone. A quadcopter drops a bomb into a shelter used by Ukrainian troops in the Vremsky Ledge which has been a subject for a Russian counterattack.


Ka-52s using NARS on Ukrainian positions in Krynki followed by four FABs. This is the first sighting of Ka-52s in this front.


Ka-52 takes out a vehicle with it's Vikhr in Kupyansk.


Lancet takes out a loaded Ukrainian landing boat in the Dniepr. There's plenty of pictures and videos with dead and floating bodies in the Dniepr so I will only post attacks on vehicles only.


FPV drone takes out a BMP-1 of the AFU in the Svatovo Kremenna front.


FPV drone from Beaver hits an M119.


AFU claims to deliver a missile strike to the 810rd Marine Brigade in retaliation to the Russian attack on the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade. The attack is said to be at a concert is Starobeshovo in the DPR. The big problem with this claim on the 810rd is that the 810rd is nowhere near that site by 500km. They should know that the 810rd is busy fighting the Ukrainian bridgehead in Krynki at Kherson instead.


The attack killed an actress however. No excuses for stupidity in the DPR for holding a concert only 60km from the front.


VKS has been firing Kh-31P against Ukrainian radars used by air defense in Odessa. This might come in preparation for another Shahed and cruise missile attack.


MT-LB with massive anti drone grills.


BMD-4M with screens and anti drone visor.


Destroyed M109 that was taken out by Lancet.

sheogorath said:

A lot of the expectations hinged on the Russians running away when spotting the Bradleys and Leopards but they got hammered hard by Russian artillery, UAV's and aviation instead.

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So they expect something like Iraqis did during Gulf war. and this is not some people in internet. kinda tragic.