The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think this hasn’t been posted yet but yesterday Ukraine attempted a massive missile strike in Crimea. It included up to 8 storm shadow, 2 Neptune ASM, 2 ATACMS and up to 35 drones. All missiles except for the ATACMS were successful intercepted ( the ATACMS didn’t manage to do much damage became of preparations done before hand). Targets were intercepted using S-400 and Pantsir ADs. The storm shadows were launched from Su 24s and Su 27s (confirming that the Su 27s has been modified to carry those).

Just mentioning this because there is always a celebration across the media when something gets through and hits a target but there is hardly ever any appreciation given to Russian AD which actually repels over 90% of missile and drone attacks from Ukraine.
90% you say? That's quite a claim do you have any source?

Ukraine claims the opposite of what Russia claims.

Lets not forget a few days ago Russians falsely claimed they shot down 7 mig -29's alone in a 24hour period.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
Another Leopard 2 tank destroyed by ATGM, this one has a mine trawl on it.

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AFU BMP disembarking troops got hit directly in what might be an artillery barrage.

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Tornado-S hit on a Ukrainian deployment point.

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Another M777 gets destroyed by Lancet.

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Tank Strv. 122 also known as the Swedish version of the Leopard, gets hit by ATGM in the Kupyan area.

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Hidden Ukrainian howitzer gets hit by Lancet.

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Ukrainian T-64BV gets hit by ATGM in the Kupyan area.

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Bradley knocked out north of Avdiivka in an unsuccessful counterattack in the village of Petroskoye.

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TOS used on Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.

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Russians have appeared to have broken through the north of Avdiivka and into the Avdiivka coke plant.

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Bombardment against Ukrainian positions in the fields near Rabotino continues as the Russians report decreasing activity on the part of Ukrainians.

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Ukrainian dry cargo ship refuses to return to Ukraine, captain fears getting mobilized.

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Ukrainian sniper rifle captured as a trophy by the 237th VDV Regiment. A UAR-10M in .308 Winchester.

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Damn, did that BMP unloading in an artillery strike zone run over a just dismounted infantry?
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
I think it’s true, there has been a string of reports in multiple russian media regarding this incident, the NATO assets monitoring sites and taking photograph, movement of Ukrainian aircrafts, then the drone attacks and finally the missile attacks. If it’s a lie then it is an extremely well constructed one that’s been built up for days constant updates, russians usually suck at lying.
There haven’t been any mention of A-50 used this time around, seems to be a typical interception of missiles. Crimea is targeted a lot actually, only a couple of days ago they intercepted a few drones and couple of neptunes but these types of elaborated attacks are rare, seems like Russians were just more prepared this time around after a few missiles got through last time and damaged their ships.

It makes sense and has been pointed out even by pro-Ukraine media multiple times that Russia does get caught with its pants down but are quick to figure out how adapt to Ukraine tactics to the point that even if they are successful later on, they aren't as effective anymore if at all. They are still good for PR but little else.
 

Aswin_hht

New Member
Registered Member
90% you say? That's quite a claim do you have any source?

Ukraine claims the opposite of what Russia claims.

Lets not forget a few days ago Russians falsely claimed they shot down 7 mig -29's alone in a 24hour period.
Source? What is a source in the midst of a war? A drone that fell onto a car after being suppressed by EW can very well be presented as a hit by the opposing side and any successful strike on a seemingly insignificant target can become a successful interception. Its hard to find reliable source in the midst of a conflict like these.

Sometimes common sense can be a source, this is undoubtedly an elaborate attack and it is extremely odd that such a successful strike doesn't have much fan-fare like it usually happens with successful Ukrainian strike. Secondly, Russians have always adopted to such strikes and the effectiveness has declined as time passed, it seems perfectly reasonable for me to assume that Russians were more prepared this time around. And the possibility of such an attack coming was clearly being hinted by even Russian medias before it happened, clearly indicating that the Russians were prepared.

As mentioned in my post, ATACMS were not intercepted and fell at intended target, Russians say that they didn't do much (may be they did a lot of damage as Ukrainians claim but who knows).

As for 90%, EW and air defenses can most certainly suppress up to 90% of guided projectiles coming towards Russians. Vast majority of them are drones (not even designed for military operations), the rate would be lower for cruise missiles of course.

And how is it falsely claimed? As far as I know there haven't been any acceptable "debunking" of that claim, if there is then you can share it with me.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
As for 90%, EW and air defenses can most certainly suppress up to 90% of guided projectiles coming towards Russians. Vast majority of them are drones (not even designed for military operations), the rate would be lower for cruise missiles of course.

I'm trying to figure out the logic of how the idea of Russia being able to intercept 90% of projectiles with a multi-layer air defense system is fake news but Ukraine being able to shoot down 120% of Russian projectiles with a handful of Patriots, Nasams and Iris-T is perfectly reasonable and feasible.
 

Aswin_hht

New Member
Registered Member
I'm trying to figure out the logic of how the idea of Russia being able to intercept 90% of projectiles with a multi-layer air defense system is fake news but Ukraine being able to shoot down 120% of Russian projectiles with a handful of Patriots, Nasams and Iris-T is perfectly reasonable and feasible.
ADs always remain under appreciated because it’s harder to see their work, on both sides that is. As for 90%, It is certainly possible as Russia has a comprehensive AD system and an extensive EW network but I mentioned it not as a precise number but instead as a replacement for “large majority”.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
FAB-500 strike on a Ukrainian force concentration in the Orekhiv front, as viewed by a quadcopter of the Klen Battalion.

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Leopard 2A6 passing through with plenty of long grills. The tank belongs to the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade transferred from the Zaporozhye front to Avdiivka,

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That didn't take long. Leopard 2A6 gets destroyed by the 114th Guards MR Brigade, same guys who put their flag on top of the Avdiivka coke heap.

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Brand new T-90Ms being rolled into the training ground.

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The 36th Guards MR Brigade and the 200th Artillery Brigade working on Ukrainian positions in Ugledar.

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Hyacinth-S working on Ukrainian artillery points and ammunition service routes in the Krasnoliman front.

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Leopard taken out by ATGM in the Kupyan area, generally not a place where Leopards are seen.

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YouTube version

Bradley was in the forest line, shelling Russian positions. It got taken out by an ATGM of the 22nd SPN Brigade.

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Western arms captured during Group O advances in Kremenna.

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Ukrainian tank hit by ATGM in the Kupyan front.

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Russian BMP modified with a 23mm ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun.

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Drone kits ready to be sent to the front. Not just FPV, but drones also used for reconnaissance and artillery work.

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Bridge in Konstantinovka taken out by a Kh-38 missile.

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Air strike at Krynok, Kherson region, possibly by an ODAB-500.

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TOS applied on a Ukrainian concentration in Zaporozhye.

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Also on the Kupyansk area, a Ukrainian armored vehicle gets taken out by ATGM.

 
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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Source? What is a source in the midst of a war? A drone that fell onto a car after being suppressed by EW can very well be presented as a hit by the opposing side and any successful strike on a seemingly insignificant target can become a successful interception. Its hard to find reliable source in the midst of a conflict like these.

Sometimes common sense can be a source, this is undoubtedly an elaborate attack and it is extremely odd that such a successful strike doesn't have much fan-fare like it usually happens with successful Ukrainian strike. Secondly, Russians have always adopted to such strikes and the effectiveness has declined as time passed, it seems perfectly reasonable for me to assume that Russians were more prepared this time around. And the possibility of such an attack coming was clearly being hinted by even Russian medias before it happened, clearly indicating that the Russians were prepared.

As mentioned in my post, ATACMS were not intercepted and fell at intended target, Russians say that they didn't do much (may be they did a lot of damage as Ukrainians claim but who knows).

As for 90%, EW and air defenses can most certainly suppress up to 90% of guided projectiles coming towards Russians. Vast majority of them are drones (not even designed for military operations), the rate would be lower for cruise missiles of course.

And how is it falsely claimed? As far as I know there haven't been any acceptable "debunking" of that claim, if there is then you can share it with me.

Just to add, the “Tim White” cited by @SolarWarden demonstrates the “broken telephone” effect by going from 17 injured to 17 killed
 

Aswin_hht

New Member
Registered Member
Just to add, the “Tim White” cited by @SolarWarden demonstrates the “broken telephone” effect by going from 17 injured to 17 killed
I did notice it. It certainly looks like Russia made a much more stronger case this time around. Event seems consistent and the same attack that the Russians admitted to have failed to intercept is the same one that the Ukraine is claiming to have happened.
 
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