The War in the Ukraine

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This may be new, but American forces know how to conduct an offensive against hardened obstacles like those facing Ukraine without the use of air superiority; in fact, the Americans have been conducting large-scale exercises of this type since before the end of GWOT.

Ukraine's problem is not its lack of air superiority.
What exercises?

It's not just the lack of air superiority, the Ukrainians on the front line are facing air superiority - look at the Ka-52s that have been operating with impunity the past few months.

Then there's the massive deficit in artillery, tanks, APCs they are coming up against. If you can give an example of Americans forces exercises mirroring anything close to that I'm all ears.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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The US Army War College has published a new paper on key lessons from the Ukrainian War, which suggests that the US could expect up to 3,600 casualties per day in a high-intensity war, and that an adequate force could only be sustained with recruitment.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
I’m still trying to wrap my head around how poor the Russian decision making has proven to be. When Ukraine is able to strike even Moscow with impunity, when the Russian AD umbrella has more holes than Swiss cheese, they decide to dry dock a Kilo in Sevastopol? In full view of satellites? They’re basically just hoping they get a 100% interception rate, and we know they didn’t get that. Bizarre.
More:
Russian deputy and former deputy commander of the Southern Military District (SMD), Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, complained about lies within the Russian armed forces that lead to poor decision-making and prevent Russian victories, he further highlighted the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses against Russian helicopters.
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I will briefly report on the situation at the front without reference to specific directions. The information was obtained from primary sources, systematized, and the following conclusions were drawn.

The enemy, having specifically run into our forces at the beginning of his counter-offensive, changed his combat tactics. They are no longer moving forward in large forces; they were obviously forbidden to abandon heavy equipment en masse.

Today they have switched to squeeze-out tactics, they are massively using cluster shells, inflicting fire on the strong points of our units, assault groups, they have a lot of ammunition, they are trying to burn out absolutely everything. Yes, this situation forces our troops to retreat deeper. Not far, but in some places they lost up to 10 kilometers of territory. The enemy has somewhere occupied our defensive positions, which are very well equipped with our own hands.

After the refraction of the defense line, the enemies created conditions for the impossibility of using anti-tank missiles by our helicopters; due to the deflection of the line, they became accessible to enemy MANPADS. The efficiency of our helicopters has decreased.

The enemy has learned to work with our very well-made minefields. They competently clear them of mines, inflicting artillery fire and using trawls.

Our artillery has improved the quality of counter-battery warfare. There are results, but again the enemy is adapting. Basically, all of its guns are installed in depth at a distance inaccessible to our artillery. An estimated two artillery brigades were concentrated in the “hottest” directions, not counting the artillery of local brigades. We burned a lot of their towed artillery, they switched to using self-propelled guns. Our people say that it is very difficult, almost impossible, to catch them; after the second sighting shot they move and change position.

They have a lot of unmanned vehicles and even more. We have also adapted here, and over the last 2-3 weeks we have effectively begun to destroy them. Verba and Strela-10 air defense systems work well against UAVs. But the crests have a lot of drones, they use them wisely, you see these attacks not only at the front, but also in our deep rear.

The main conclusion is that the war continues. Yes, we are stronger, our warriors are stronger and more courageous, our troops are more professional. We endure, we adapt, we adapt, we win, we have already laid down a lot of the enemy’s manpower. But it is foolish to deny that today NATO is fighting against us with all its advanced technologies. We will win in any case, but Victory is separated from us only by one serious problem of ours - lies. Yes, there is less of it than there was at the beginning of the SVO, but it is there. There are at different levels, they talk about it in the troops. False reports, unfortunately, lead to poor decisions at many levels. This is there, let's acknowledge it and fight it, otherwise there will be trouble.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
If true the Admiral Makarov was also hit it means a country with no navy took out a big percentage of Russia's deployed black sea fleet.

Two Vasily Bykov type ships, Bora class and now the Marakov are in port/likely drydock with some type of damage. Ukraine's attack was much bigger than previously thought.

It's going to be interesting to see if Ukraine has some storm shadows left to attack these ships in port/drydock.
 

SomaliUK

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
If true the Admiral Makarov was also hit it means a country with no navy took out a big percentage of Russia's deployed black sea fleet.

Two Vasily Bykov type ships, Bora class and now the Marakov are in port/likely drydock with some type of damage. Ukraine's attack was much bigger than previously thought.

It's going to be interesting to see if Ukraine has some storm shadows left to attack these ships in port/drydock.
Are we still continuing the narrative that Ukraine is somehow achieving these escalatory attacks on their own?


You can quite literally, track western reconnaissance at the timing of these attacks.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I lost count of the amount of times the Admiral Makarov was claimed to be sunk by Ukraine at this point.
And the Russians moving ships around to prevent them being easily targeted by GPS guided munitions does not mean those ships were hit.

As for the Russians doing a lot of dumb things and having a culture of lack of precautions. Well that is Russia for you.

If you expected Russia to defend against every single drone, no air defense anywhere in the world is that good, and Russia has the best.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Much has been made of the strikes on the Russian naval dry dock. The dry dock itself seems to be basically fine. The ship of most consequence lost was the submarine, but Russia can produce them 4x faster than Ukraine is destroying them if they wanted to. So I do not know why people think it is that much of a big deal really. Russia can easily replace the submarine. No crewman was lost. It was just a material loss.

I have seen claims of it being a $300 million USD loss. But that is the export price. These submarines are built at shipyards owned by the Russian state (United Shipbuilding Corporation). The price to the Russian state of such a submarine is much less.

They will have to further tighten up air defense around Crimea, and I expect Russia to possibly amp up strikes against NATO drones and satellites. They already destroyed a drone flying too close to Crimea, and they could blind optical satellites passing over Crimea with lasers if they wanted to.

Possibilities in defense would be adding the S-350 to improve mid range coverage against saturation attacks, adding permanent jamming around Crimea similar to that used in Syria in Tartus, and building new radars to improve coverage.

As for claims of why they were using the dry dock to repair those ships, it is not like Russia has infinite amounts of naval facilities available. And Russia has been building way more expensive LHDs at Kerch in Crimea, the Project 23900 Ivan Rogov class, those are a much larger target and so far Ukraine hasn't hit those. In fact the shipyard at Kerch finished work fitting out two Karakurt class corvettes just this year. Each of those ships has 8x VLS launchers which can fire the Kalibr or Oniks at land targets and carry the Pantsir-M for air defense.
 
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