They lost the moment they started the war. I hold steadfast to my original thesis that even if the war went swimmingly for Russia and they managed to conquer all of Ukraine within 48 hours, they have lost geopolitically.
How do you figure that?
Russia basically no longer even needs the west, economically speaking, their economy has grown and trade with China along with other global south nations whom are all rising and building up is apparently able to replace what they had with the West completely.
This war has proven that Germany would absolutely be crushed in any real war against...well it feels like anyone at this point. Mostly due to the fact that they have allowed themselves to be completely vassalized as an murican puppet state but regardless of why or how they got to this point the fact that they're this badly off is the important part. Germany is unable to manufacture and produce...anything by now in sufficient quantities to either fight a war or to save their economy, their economy is tanking
bad because losing Russian oil from Nordstream means every damn thing under the Sun now costs exponentially more since the cost of energy is like the foundation of the cost of everything else. Their populace is wildly unhappy and dissatisfied with their government so the last thing their government needs is a war...unless they want to learn firsthand what all those historical figures who got overthrown felt like when they finally pushed their subjects over the edge.
And the truth is that Germany is the strongest, richest, and most powerful of the EU. You can say France and I would give you that because I don't see much point arguing minute details for now, but the fact remains that if Germany is doing
this badly then France, England, Italy, Spain, Poland, Hungary, etc. and others are also suffering too.
The conclusion about the EU here in regards to Russia is that they have effectively been disarmed and declawed by having them waste all their military potential in Ukraine. Russia does not need to fear any sort of counter-attack or counter-war from the EU barring that no spectularly awful scenario happens to them.
Lastly, we now know for a fact basically that Ukraine is practically out of people. Like seriously. They're trying to use a war crime (forcibly extraditing refugees/asylum seekers) from their neighbors because they just have no one else left to fight. The Ukraine will not likely recover until sometime after the end of this whole century. Not the least of reasons for that is because Ukraine was a notoriously corrupt and, quite frankly, shitty country from since the fall of the Soviet Union until now...in 30 years they basically made no progress...arguably they got worse off even. No way they're going to be on the rise now after all of this.
I do agree that certain things could've been done better by Russia, but my personal opinion is that for some unknown reason the Russians when they go to war lately in the last several decades it's like what happens if you take a guy who's seriously not a morning person and then drag him out of bed and force him to do hard work early in the morning. His performance won't get going until this complete and total anti-morning person wakes up later in the day and finally gets going.
I know it sounds kind of informal but that's the only way I can describe it.