The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
You can see for yourself the theater building is destroyed from within, that is consistent to a missile smashing through the roof and blowing up from within. The AOE of an Iskander is tremendous, I have seen an AFU S-300 system have tels, radar unit and command post destroyed with the hit only within a radius of these systems.
Should have not said CAN but possibly. Software alteration will definitely be needed. It shouldn't be difficult to integrate a UK cruise missile on an F-16. US and UK built many of their weapons to be compatible with each others system platforms.
I have yet to see a Ukrainian fighter actually shoot down anything other a few drones in 1.5 years of the war.
Where were the Ukrainian fighters when Ka-52s ravaged AFU columns in Zaporyzhia?
After the last attack on the Su-24 air base, I have not seen any Storm Shadow attacks lately. Which is precisely why you are now using drones and converted S-200 missiles, i.e. Crimean Bridge.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The Ukrainians have received several hundred Storm Shadows and Scalps, but instances their combat use are only a literally handful so far. Not even NATO could comprehensively destroy all the combat aircraft of Yugoslavia or Iraq despite enjoying true air dominance, so I’m not sure why certain people are reading so much into the fact the AFU can still launch the occasional sortie from their deep interior.
If the AFU are doing so well with their existing fighter fleet, why all the clamour to get F16s?
Unless any NATO member is moronic enough to allow the AFU to base and operate F16s from their territory, no amount of F16s supplied will make any meaningful impact because of the airport support situation.
It’s one thing to hide a handful of planes amongst all the shelters, hangers and other buildings of all your airports and air bases, you will find it much harder to find good hiding spots for dozens of planes.
Pilot conversion training is only the easier part of the logistics burden of taking on and fielding F16s. The bigger challenge will be the ground crews. Guancha mentioned that when China first imported Su27s from Russia, the biggest training pain was with ground crew instead of pilots. Ground crew tended to be much older than pilots, so their learning abilities are correspondingly less than youngsters. You also need to add in the language factor since all the training materials, instructors, displays and even inscriptions will all be in English. And language skills is a major factor since a big reason for the repeated pushing back of the ETA of F16 is down to inadequate language skills with even the hand picked first batch of seeder pilots from Ukraine, who are supposed to represent their most suitable candidates with the best English skills available.
Even if they do manage to get F16s in the air, those will almost certainly be early blk birds that will be comprehensively outclassed by even legacy Russian aircraft like Su35s. Sending them close to the frontlines is just suicide with extra steps, and I don’t imagine LockMart or the US will particularly relish seeing F16 kill marks on Russian Su35s, Su57s or even Mig31s, as such, don’t get your hopes up of F16s being the new Leopard2 silver bullet to allow the AFU to sweep all before them and be at Moscow by Christmas.
F16s are primarily supposed to be used defensively to deal with Russian cruise missiles and Gerans etc deep behind the lines to at least slow down the rate of haemorrhaging of western arms and equipment into Ukraine at a rate far beyond their industrial ability to replace and replenish. Being able to stop whole warehouses and trainloads of freshly delivered arms from being hit before they can be distributed to the front would be a massive step in that direction.
Personally, I think the biggest impact of F16s in Ukraine will be primarily for show, to offer up enough plausible deniability that NATO F16s might loose off some AMRAAMs at Russian missiles and Gerans heading to targets in eastern Ukraine, or even slip across the boarder themselves to create something of a safe(r) zone for supplies and their more adventurous specialist ‘volunteers’ to operate in much more safety, so things like the recent drone exhibit disaster would be less likely to happen. This will give Ukraine a safe base to operate from, and also allow them to concrete more of their air defences towards the front.
Ironically, the biggest frontline impact F16s might have is to act as bait, since you can bet every Russian pilot is going to be positively salivating at the prospect of being the first to bag an F16 kill, as they will basically guarantee a Hero of Russia medal, and put them on the fast track to making general. That might cause them to be a lot more willing to take risks trying to chase down an F16, so if the Ukrainians are smart, they might be able to use that to get a few SAM kills.
If the AFU are doing so well with their existing fighter fleet, why all the clamour to get F16s?
Unless any NATO member is moronic enough to allow the AFU to base and operate F16s from their territory, no amount of F16s supplied will make any meaningful impact because of the airport support situation.
It’s one thing to hide a handful of planes amongst all the shelters, hangers and other buildings of all your airports and air bases, you will find it much harder to find good hiding spots for dozens of planes.
Pilot conversion training is only the easier part of the logistics burden of taking on and fielding F16s. The bigger challenge will be the ground crews. Guancha mentioned that when China first imported Su27s from Russia, the biggest training pain was with ground crew instead of pilots. Ground crew tended to be much older than pilots, so their learning abilities are correspondingly less than youngsters. You also need to add in the language factor since all the training materials, instructors, displays and even inscriptions will all be in English. And language skills is a major factor since a big reason for the repeated pushing back of the ETA of F16 is down to inadequate language skills with even the hand picked first batch of seeder pilots from Ukraine, who are supposed to represent their most suitable candidates with the best English skills available.
Even if they do manage to get F16s in the air, those will almost certainly be early blk birds that will be comprehensively outclassed by even legacy Russian aircraft like Su35s. Sending them close to the frontlines is just suicide with extra steps, and I don’t imagine LockMart or the US will particularly relish seeing F16 kill marks on Russian Su35s, Su57s or even Mig31s, as such, don’t get your hopes up of F16s being the new Leopard2 silver bullet to allow the AFU to sweep all before them and be at Moscow by Christmas.
F16s are primarily supposed to be used defensively to deal with Russian cruise missiles and Gerans etc deep behind the lines to at least slow down the rate of haemorrhaging of western arms and equipment into Ukraine at a rate far beyond their industrial ability to replace and replenish. Being able to stop whole warehouses and trainloads of freshly delivered arms from being hit before they can be distributed to the front would be a massive step in that direction.
Personally, I think the biggest impact of F16s in Ukraine will be primarily for show, to offer up enough plausible deniability that NATO F16s might loose off some AMRAAMs at Russian missiles and Gerans heading to targets in eastern Ukraine, or even slip across the boarder themselves to create something of a safe(r) zone for supplies and their more adventurous specialist ‘volunteers’ to operate in much more safety, so things like the recent drone exhibit disaster would be less likely to happen. This will give Ukraine a safe base to operate from, and also allow them to concrete more of their air defences towards the front.
Ironically, the biggest frontline impact F16s might have is to act as bait, since you can bet every Russian pilot is going to be positively salivating at the prospect of being the first to bag an F16 kill, as they will basically guarantee a Hero of Russia medal, and put them on the fast track to making general. That might cause them to be a lot more willing to take risks trying to chase down an F16, so if the Ukrainians are smart, they might be able to use that to get a few SAM kills.
This looks to me an Iskander strike against an administration building and warehouse used by the AFU.
AFU tank and vehicles spotted by drone in forest lines hit by Russian artillery.
Polish supplied Krab gets destroyed, not sure by what.
Ukrainian BMP-1 burns after attack.
Lancet takes out a Ukrainian SPG.
Destroyed Leopard 2A4 in Rabotino.
First sighting of an Slovenian M55S in Zaporzhyzhia. Previously seen only in the Svatovo Kremenneya region. First kill of such by a Lancet too.
Destroyed T-64BM in Zaporzhyzhia.
Russian FPV drone Ghoul attacks a Ukrainian speedboat in the Dniepr.
Destroyed AFU T-72B from the Ukrainian POV.
Correction. Kupyansk bridge over the Oskol river wasn't self demolished by the Ukrainians, it was hit by a Russian FAB bomb.
AFU DRG hit by ATGM from the VDV. Four abbreviations in one sentence. This in Zaporzhyzhia.
Another AN/TPQ-36 counter battery radar knocked out by Lancet coming from the VDV.
AFU tank and vehicles spotted by drone in forest lines hit by Russian artillery.
Polish supplied Krab gets destroyed, not sure by what.
Ukrainian BMP-1 burns after attack.
Lancet takes out a Ukrainian SPG.
Destroyed Leopard 2A4 in Rabotino.
First sighting of an Slovenian M55S in Zaporzhyzhia. Previously seen only in the Svatovo Kremenneya region. First kill of such by a Lancet too.
Destroyed T-64BM in Zaporzhyzhia.
Russian FPV drone Ghoul attacks a Ukrainian speedboat in the Dniepr.
Destroyed AFU T-72B from the Ukrainian POV.
Correction. Kupyansk bridge over the Oskol river wasn't self demolished by the Ukrainians, it was hit by a Russian FAB bomb.
AFU DRG hit by ATGM from the VDV. Four abbreviations in one sentence. This in Zaporzhyzhia.
Another AN/TPQ-36 counter battery radar knocked out by Lancet coming from the VDV.
That is a good point. I think this is the real reason why Russia had such strong reaction on potential F-16 transfer.
Vipers armed with harpoons can pose a severe threat to Russian navy.
I don't think the problem Russia has is the F-16's in general but who will be flying them. There's a ton of retired F-16 pilots in the US and Europe that could "volunteer" to fly those Vipers while Ukrainian pilots are being trained. Many of these pilots have seen combat and are SEAD/DEAD trained. I think that is the biggest threat not freshly trained Ukraine pilots flying F-16's. It's no secret US ISR is giving Ukraine live intel who's to say these F-16's wont be able to datalink with these ISR aircraft.
I don't think the problem Russia has is the F-16's in general but who will be flying them. There's a ton of retired F-16 pilots in the US and Europe that could "volunteer" to fly those Vipers while Ukrainian pilots are being trained. Many of these pilots have seen combat and are SEAD/DEAD trained. I think that is the biggest threat not freshly trained Ukraine pilots flying F-16's. It's no secret US ISR is giving Ukraine live intel who's to say these F-16's wont be able to datalink with these ISR aircraft.
I’m beginning to wonder if this, so far, minimally successful counter-offensive might simply be a practice-run for a future offensive with a better equipped, more experienced, Ukrainian force. With financing continuously pouring-in, and with NATO nations dipping ever-deeper into weapons-stockpiles, it’s foreseeable that in 12 to 18 months, Ukraine could have 5 squadrons of F-16s and several-hundred (outdated) MBTs, not to mention artlillery pieces, and longer-ranged missiles, both air and ground launched. As they have seemingly not yet run into a shortage of personnel, this could bode ill for a, so far, underperforming Russian military. Luckily, for Russia, the U. S. hasn’t started training Uke pilots to fly the A-10, yet!
So......Does this finally mean Russia has launched some sort of offensive just now?