The War in the Ukraine

HereToSeePics

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We don't know what drones China are planning export restrictions on yet. Would it be a cheap 500 dollar DJI Mini? or a 28000 dollar Agras T40 capable of lifting 50kg, or whether they'll restrict the Mavic 3 Thermal, but the Mavic 3 Classic is ok? (with those only being examples for the sake of the discussion). The only news that have definitely come out is that both sides are attempting to stockpile low to mid end drones via volunteer purchasing efforts outside of Russia/Ukraine.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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Moderator - World Affairs
We don't know what drones China are planning export restrictions on yet. Would it be a cheap 500 dollar DJI Mini? or a 28000 dollar Agras T40 capable of lifting 50kg, or whether they'll restrict the Mavic 3 Thermal, but the Mavic 3 Classic is ok? (with those only being examples for the sake of the discussion). The only news that have definitely come out is that both sides are attempting to stockpile low to mid end drones via volunteer purchasing efforts outside of Russia/Ukraine.
It's export control, not ban

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With engine power greater than 16kW
Contains following payloads
  • IR imager with detection wavelength between 780nm-30000nm, IFOV less than 2.5mrad
  • SAR with range greater than 5km, line resolution less than 0.3m and instant resolution less than 0.1m
  • Laser range finder/designator that can operate in temp > 55℃, energy output greater than 80mJ, stability greater than 15%, dispersion range less than 0.3mrad
Transmission capability: video transmission range greater than 50km, single control terminal that can control over 10 UAVs
 

HereToSeePics

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Moderator - World Affairs
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It's export control, not ban

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With engine power greater than 16kW
Contains following payloads
  • IR imager with detection wavelength between 780nm-30000nm, IFOV less than 2.5mrad
  • SAR with range greater than 5km, line resolution less than 0.3m and instant resolution less than 0.1m
  • Laser range finder/designator that can operate in temp > 55℃, energy output greater than 80mJ, stability greater than 15%, dispersion range less than 0.3mrad
Transmission capability: video transmission range greater than 50km, single control terminal that can control over 10 UAVs

No one said it was a ban, we all knew it was export restrictions from the start. A majority of the drone footage we see in the Ukraine war comes from consumer DJI drones and the FPV kamakazi cameras, but given that list of specifications, very few of those models would fall under those rules. I don't know of a single DJI drone with 50+ km transmission distance while the bulk of the ones being used for instance are less expensive minis/Air-2s and Mavics 3s without thermal imaging, lidar or radar.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
You do realise customs clearance and checks are not actually carried out at the physical boarder on the trains right?! Even western style HGV logjams are not caused by customs physically checking the loads, but rather usually down to paperwork checks and processing.

The overwhelming majority of physical customs checks are done at the receiving end, and mostly focused on looking for and finding dangerously illegal cargo like drugs, guns, explosives and people smuggling. Boarder security doesn’t have the time, expertise or bandwidth to look at customs declarations paperwork and cross checking that against live truck X-ray scans to see if the goods match the paperwork. Not that they could even tell from X-rays for many many types of goods.

Even if the Russian boarder guards sees drones when the paperwork says toys, do you think they are going to do anything about it?


My point is that the shipping lines between Europe and China are far less disrupted. I am not talking about some inspectors. How many actual trains can be run? How many containers/carriages can the transfer stations handle? How many cranes, people, trucks/lorries are available, etc.?

Regular commercial traffic is still going on over these lines, and they are probably running at full tilt. For example, you have 10,000s more cars per month going from China to Russia. To displace this traffic, you have to pay a premium. The Russian side will look the other way, sure, but for the Chinese side it is just business. Most businesspeople aren't going to do Russia any favours, that HiPhi X they are looking at isn't free...

China is protecting itself with the drones export ban. However, re-sellers via third-party countries, direct exports of knock-down assembly drone kits, direct exports of individual drone components, setting a localized manufacturing within Russia, outright smuggling complete units, the list goes on....

The only thing that could completely stop it is if DJI geo-bans Russia and Ukraine in it's DJI Fly app....but a hacked firmware update can resolve that, or GPS spoofing can be done.

I think they are already doing that. I believe there was a link here a while back from telegram or something from the Ukrainians discussing that they hacked the firmware as there were allegations that DJI Flysafe was leaking coordinates to the Russians.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
4 Russian Kalibr missiles hit the Yuzhmash plant in Ukraine. Published footage of the strikes of Russian cruise missiles Kalibr, tonight on August 15, on the Ukrainian Southern Machine-Building Plant in the city of Dnepropetrovsk. As reported, the plant was hit by four missiles in total, you can see the missile strikes on the video. As a result of the impact, a strong fire broke out at the Yuzhmash plant. This is confirmed by a number of Ukrainian sources, citing the head of the Dnepropetrovsk regional military administration, Sergei Lysak.

 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
An armored personnel carrier Stryker of the Ukrainian army, made in the USA, came under attack from a Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet" in the Rabotino district of the Zaporozhye region. Earlier we talked about the Stryker armored personnel carrier, there is a video with technical information on the channel. This is the first defeat of Stryker armored personnel carriers in Ukraine by Lancet drones. The quality of the video and the fact that it is not shown to the end does not allow us to assess what damage the armored personnel carrier received from the impact of the Lancet kamikaze drone.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
My point is that the shipping lines between Europe and China are far less disrupted. I am not talking about some inspectors. How many actual trains can be run? How many containers/carriages can the transfer stations handle? How many cranes, people, trucks/lorries are available, etc.?

Regular commercial traffic is still going on over these lines, and they are probably running at full tilt. For example, you have 10,000s more cars per month going from China to Russia. To displace this traffic, you have to pay a premium. The Russian side will look the other way, sure, but for the Chinese side it is just business. Most businesspeople aren't going to do Russia any favours, that HiPhi X they are looking at isn't free...

I think they are already doing that. I believe there was a link here a while back from telegram or something from the Ukrainians discussing that they hacked the firmware as there were allegations that DJI Flysafe was leaking coordinates to the Russians.

It's an authoritarian state, rules are broken when the state deems them too. Yes Chinese side is business but they are finding business in Russia lucrative just as the exports to Europe and the US weakening and are threat of sanction. Yes Chinese business are looking for more opportunities in Russia because they certainly do read the geopolitical news and tensions and they are not blind to this.

Displacing traffic? With Europe in recession or having weaker economies, the railways from China to Europe will have less volume. This gives ample opportunity to increase volumes to Russia. Let's not forget, China is increasing capacity in direct routes, planning more roads, bridges and railways. Another factor is the war itself has disrupted the China to Europe rail route. To keep the railways running, they need to increase the shipments to Russia.

As for the Mavics, the Russians have already hacked them last year. It's been suspected they had Chinese help on this but that's never directly proven.

Given the amount of FPV drones being assembled in Russia, it's likely that tons of related material --- batteries, electronics, propellers, electric motors --- are already imported from China, and Chinese businesses are happy. The same route can be used to create domestic observation drones and the Russians have already some news on that (see Russian Military Thread).

In other news,

Burnt Leopard and Marder at Rabotino.

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ZALA Super Cam UAV spotting a Ukrainian 2S3 Akasyas for Russian artillery.

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