The War in the Ukraine

Abominable

Major
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The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said, a staggering toll as Russia assaults its next-door neighbor and tries to seize more territory.

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures. But they said the slaughter intensified this year in eastern Ukraine and has continued at a steady clip as a nearly three-month-old counteroffensive drags on.

Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

But Russians outnumber Ukrainians on the battlefield almost three to one, and Russia has a larger population from which to replenish its ranks.

Ukraine has around 500,000 troops, including active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops, according to analysts. By contrast, Russia has almost triple that number, with 1,330,000 active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops — most of the latter from the Wagner Group.
(...)



Man, that is really grim. :(
Apparently some US officials think focusing attacks on Crimea is waste of resources for little to show for, calling it "at best a distraction, and at worst, a valuable waste of resources in a strategy that many analysts now believe has left Ukraine stretched too thin between multiple axes of attack."


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Lots of articles like this published over the last few days. It looks like the west have given up with the "Ukraine is winning" propaganda. Here's a good one:

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All these authors say the same thing. Ukraine was winning for most of the war, but for some unexplained reason they are now losing badly. Ukraine should now surrender and offer Crimea and Donbas, and in return get accepted into NATO. That may be acceptable to Russia if they were losing, but they certainly won't accept that now.
 
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blackjack21

Junior Member
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Lots of articles like this published over the last few days. It looks like the west have given up with the "Ukraine is winning" propaganda. Here's a good one:

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All these authors say the same thing. Ukraine was winning for most of the war, but for some unexplained reason they are now losing badly. Ukraine should now surrender and offer Crimea and Donbas, and in return get accepted into NATO. That may be acceptable to Russia if they were losing (not really, they would just nuke NATO), but they certainly won't accept that.
I already knew this war was not favorable to Ukraine and Russia is nowhere near resting against the ropes when they sent Wagner to Belarus than letting them stay in Ukraine against Ukraine's counteriffensive. If Ukraine counteriffensuve did indeed offer massive casualties to the Russian side than Wagner would have stayed in Ukraine than moving them to Belarus where Poland was forced to get 10k troops ready at the border.
 

RottenPanzer

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The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said, a staggering toll as Russia assaults its next-door neighbor and tries to seize more territory.

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures. But they said the slaughter intensified this year in eastern Ukraine and has continued at a steady clip as a nearly three-month-old counteroffensive drags on.

Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

But Russians outnumber Ukrainians on the battlefield almost three to one, and Russia has a larger population from which to replenish its ranks.

Ukraine has around 500,000 troops, including active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops, according to analysts. By contrast, Russia has almost triple that number, with 1,330,000 active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops — most of the latter from the Wagner Group.
(...)



Man, that is really grim. :(

Do western media really take the word of Ukrainian "official" tally of Russian casualties for granted? Because that's kind of disingenuous and pathetic ngl
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
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Do western media really take the word of Ukrainian "official" tally of Russian casualties for granted? Because that's kind of disingenuous and pathetic ngl

Disingenuous is more likely as i'm still remember that leaked document which clearly mentioned that there is little confidence on Ukrainian casualty values. These media should be producing their own estimates and cross referencing from multiple sources and if necessary do their own investigative journalism. Might be hard to as there could be no law protecting these journalists. Same should go to Russian casualties.
 

Abominable

Major
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Do western media really take the word of Ukrainian "official" tally of Russian casualties for granted? Because that's kind of disingenuous and pathetic ngl
For the most part, yes. There are a few exceptions.

The BBC/mediazone has been at least trying to seriously track deaths. It is currently around 26,000. Ironically, it has been very close to Russians self reported deaths.

Mediazona, BBC News Russian, and a team of volunteers have have been meticulously maintaining our own list of fallen soldiers since May 2022. We gather data from social networks, local press reports, photographs of cemeteries and memorials. As of June 30, 2023, the count tallies at 26,800 names—and we know each individual name.

Clearly, these figures do not account for all losses—many deaths remain unpublicised. This was repeatedly confirmed by our volunteer teams visiting cemeteries, discovering new casualties not mentioned in obituaries, news reports, or even on social media. Furthermore, in early summer 2023, following our persistent updates of the casualty count, the Ministry of Defence requested regional Russian authorities to limit the publication of casualty data.
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They also have an upper number of 47,000 based on demographic data. Given that all of Europe is currently suffering from an epidemic of excess mortality, it's difficult to extrapolate data from national statistics.

In more understandable terms, in the worst case scenario the total Russian losses are the equivalent of what America loses to fentanyl overdoses over 2-3 months.

As for Ukraine, no publically available data is available but there have been a few serious attempts to extrapolate data. Without going into detail, three methods have been used:
1. Satellite/OSINT analysis of new Ukrainian military graves
2. Extrapolations from a Ukrainian study survey on Ukrainians who know someone injured or killed.
3. Extrapolations from the publically released number of Ukrainian amputees.

This article gives a good summary of the three:
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The estimated numbers range from 400,000-1.8 million Ukrainian deaths.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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For the most part, yes. There are a few exceptions.

The BBC/mediazone has been at least trying to seriously track deaths. It is currently around 26,000. Ironically, it has been very close to Russians self reported deaths.


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They also have an upper number of 47,000 based on demographic data. Given that all of Europe is currently suffering from an epidemic of excess mortality, it's difficult to extrapolate data from national statistics.

In more understandable terms, in the worst case scenario the total Russian losses are the equivalent of what America loses to fentanyl overdoses over 2-3 months.

As for Ukraine, no publically available data is available but there have been a few serious attempts to extrapolate data. Without going into detail, three methods have been used:
1. Satellite/OSINT analysis of new Ukrainian military graves
2. Extrapolations from a Ukrainian study survey on Ukrainians who know someone injured or killed.
3. Extrapolations from the publically released number of Ukrainian amputees.

This article gives a good summary of the three:
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The estimated numbers range from 400,000-1.8 million Ukrainian deaths.
1.8 million is way too high... it can't be. At least, I don't want to believe it. 1.8 million per 18 months is 100k per month or 1.2 million per year.

Imperial Japan invading China killed 30 million in ~10 years. 3 million per year.

That's WW2 levels of casualties.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
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1.8 million is way too high... it can't be. At least, I don't want to believe it. 1.8 million per 18 months is 100k per month or 1.2 million per year.

Imperial Japan invading China killed 30 million in ~10 years. 3 million per year.

That's WW2 levels of casualties.
I cannot see how using current tactics from both sides will result in any high casualty rates. For the most part combat is conducted in squad/platoon scale with only dozens of men dead maximum even if a whole thrust involving multiple armored vehicles were wiped out.

Much of the committed armored vehicles for the Ukranian side consist of various flavours of MRAPs which even when immobilized/hit a mine keeps the crew inside in relative good shape.

We don't even see footage of large scale infantry assualts that would generate such high volume of casualties. The only period which I think would've been especially painful would be Bakhmut. None of the offensive actions seem like it would've caused 1+ million casualties.

This is the purported exerpt from the grayzone article, which uses a trashy methodology to artificially inflate casualty rates, since the nature of the two wars are completely different. How would you even compare COIN against an actual war?

Officially, a total of 22,311 killed and injured were recorded during the US occupation of Afghanistan, and 36,710 in the latter, a total of 59,021. Proportionally, 1,650 amputees represents 2.8% of this figure.

If that volume is transposed to Ukrainian amputees, which reportedly range from 20,000 – 50,000, Kiev’s overall total of killed and injured soldiers since the invasion began could be anywhere between 714,500 and 1.8 million

As before when extrapolating data, garbage in -> garbage out.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I cannot see how using current tactics from both sides will result in any high casualty rates. For the most part combat is conducted in squad/platoon scale with only dozens of men dead maximum even if a whole thrust involving multiple armored vehicles were wiped out.

Much of the committed armored vehicles for the Ukranian side consist of various flavours of MRAPs which even when immobilized/hit a mine keeps the crew inside in relative good shape.

We don't even see footage of large scale infantry assualts that would generate such high volume of casualties. The only period which I think would've been especially painful would be Bakhmut. None of the offensive actions seem like it would've caused 1+ million casualties.

This is the purported exerpt from the grayzone article, which uses a trashy methodology to artificially inflate casualty rates, since the nature of the two wars are completely different. How would you even compare COIN against an actual war?



As before when extrapolating data, garbage in -> garbage out.
They did mention that the wounded:amputee ratio did not change for 50 years and was seen in Vietnam as well, despite it being a much higher intensity war than Iraq/Afghanistan dominated by mines, artillery and close range platoon level combat on the ground.
 
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