The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog said:

In the end, we don't really know how many Shahed are used... both sides are throwing numbers without any concordances. They still need good info of targets for these to be useful somewhat and their low speed relegate them to mostly static targets like buildings.

Shahed looked more like a stop gap measure until manufacturing of other standoff weapons kicked in. Depleting missiles stocks and detecting where sam systems are located could be one of their main use lately but you need good ISR asset to follow them.

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I feel like they can easily be used tactically, the onboard guidance should be a lot more accurate if you're only lobbing them <20km. They are simple, cheap enough that you can use them like more precise grad batteries, it's 50kg payload is nothing to scuff at and in a saturation attack should be enough to blunt any offensive/defensive positions , yet we have not seen them used this way.

Another S-400 targeted.

Broccoli said:

Another S-400 targeted.

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This is why I dismiss Oryx using similarly bogus pictures to claim losses.

All I see is a burn out hulk of a Belarussian MAZ-7910 tractor vehicle. Which both Russia and Ukraine use. The remains are not identifiable any further.

This is a picture of vehicles of an S-300PMU system.



Does the launcher vehicle look familiar? The S-300 was exported to several countries. And some of the systems ended up in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians are not beyond showing pictures of videos of their own losses and claiming them to be Russian losses. They have done this more than once. So using that picture as "proof" just by itself is more than insufficient.

Most Russian S-400 systems in fact use different vehicles for the launcher. The BAZ-64022.



The Russians also use the MAZ-7910 in some modernized S-300 systems and early S-400 systems. But since both sides use it, claiming it must be Russian, when it is an unrecognizable carbonized mess, is more than a bit of a stretch. In fact, because of the vastly shorter range of the Ukrainian operated S-300 systems, it is way more likely to be Ukrainian than anything else. Since those systems are way closer to the front lines and way more likely to be hit. The Ukrainians are using S-300PS systems in cases where the Russian would use the Buk-M3 to similar effect.

tankphobia said:

Well I guess to determine whether it is a psyop or not we simply need to see who stands to gain from such an action. I could not think of any one who actually benefitted from the whole fiasco, not Wagner, not Russia and not even NATO. Sometimes real life is just stranger than fiction, least of all Russia politics. Soviet politics was just as fanciful, if not more so.

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I don't buy all the "Putin is playing 4D chess" takes precisely because the coup had such high cost in terms of his authority. Never mind the fact that if you really do plan out a fake coup it could very easily go real if the guy doing the coup sees it going well. That's not something you gamble your life on.

Likewise we were all pretty sure Prigozhin had some trick up his sleeve and not just turn around 200km outside of Moscow because we assume if the coup doesn't work he's going to lose his head.

So perhaps the occupy Rostov part was fairly well planned, the drive on Moscow while clearly planned was not originally intended to feel like a move to depose Putin. Perhaps he was going to just park his tanks outside the Ministry of Defence much like Rostov and act out. Only during the coup passion flared and it escalated. Similarly with Putin all that traitor talk might be him running out of option and spending his authority to defuse the situation.

This meeting 5 days after the coup being announced now feels like a ruse from both sides after the fact to make the situation seem all planned and under control rather than a what it actually was.

I found a picture of an S-300P system which also has a launcher which looks basically the same.



The S-300P is operated by Ukraine.

MT-LB turned into an MLRS with the addition of a 22 round 140mm rocket launcher.


M113 gets knocked out by a Lancet.


Handiwork of the 42nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division. There's like 10 separate pictures of destroyed tanks and vehicles so for the sake of keeping it short, I will post one. This one is near Rabotyne. Bradley M2 seen.



More destroyed Ukrainian vehicles towards Rabotyne.


Ukrainian POV as a Ukrainian convoy falls victim to a Russian artillery and rocket strike.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles northwest of Bakhmut. Two BMP-2, one BMP-1 and one YPR-765.


Another destroyed Maxxpro at Zaporozhye.


58th Battalion of the 1st Donetsk Army hitting Ukrainian convoy with ATGMs near Bakhmut. A vehicle lit up badly around the 0.51 mark.


YPR-65 hit by the Ghost Battalion of the DPR near Bakhmut.


Compilation of artillery strikes at Ukrainian vehicles in the Rabotino direction. Even if not mentioned, Krasnopols are heavily involved. At least 5 Bradleys observed destroyed by the Russian 42nd Division.


Lancet hits Ukrainian tank at the rear near Orekhov.


AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery radar destroyed by Russian strike in the Kharkhiv region.


Damaged Russian vehicles that have been safely evacuated and appears to be taken to a depot. They include a T-90M, a BMPT Terminator and a KAMAZ truck.

gelgoog said:

All I see is a burn out hulk of a Belarussian MAZ-7910 tractor vehicle. Which both Russia and Ukraine use. The remains are not identifiable any further.

This is a picture of vehicles of an S-300PMU system.

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You should see the radar picture tho. But i agree that the launcher can be anything. The radar however is specific.


This gas turbine cover (The one in circle) is specific for the 92N6's MAZ-7930 chassis and the fuel tank below the radar. Those are different to S-300PM-2's 30N6 MAZ based vehicle.

This poor thing seems to be attacked in transit or on arrival in a prepared site. If one question why one is so close to front, the only explanation is to engage low RCS target as early as possible.

Temstar said:

I don't buy all the "Putin is playing 4D chess" takes precisely because the coup had such high cost in terms of his authority. Never mind the fact that if you really do plan out a fake coup it could very easily go real if the guy doing the coup sees it going well. That's not something you gamble your life on.

Likewise we were all pretty sure Prigozhin had some trick up his sleeve and not just turn around 200km outside of Moscow because we assume if the coup doesn't work he's going to lose his head.

So perhaps the occupy Rostov part was fairly well planned, the drive on Moscow while clearly planned was not originally intended to feel like a move to depose Putin. Perhaps he was going to just park his tanks outside the Ministry of Defence much like Rostov and act out. Only during the coup passion flared and it escalated. Similarly with Putin all that traitor talk might be him running out of option and spending his authority to defuse the situation.

This meeting 5 days after the coup being announced now feels like a ruse from both sides after the fact to make the situation seem all planned and under control rather than a what it actually was.

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I agree
If Putin was playing 4D chess what on earth was the intended out come?
The coup opera has done no more that invoke a collective WTF from around the world.
I dont get what statically what could over been achieved by Putin or Prigozhin.

The only explanation I can see it that Putin is not the puppet master even purports him to be, but is in fact the puppet.
Who else does Prigozhin provide catering for - ?

Stealthflanker said:

This gas turbine cover (The one in circle) is specific for the 92N6's MAZ-7930 chassis and the fuel tank below the radar. Those are different to S-300PM-2's 30N6 MAZ based vehicle.

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Maybe. But those gas turbine generators are not just used with that particular vehicle.



This is a 30N6E Flap Lid radar from a Greek S-300PMU system for example. It uses a similar gas turbine cover. On a MAZ-7910 chassis.

Rather conveniently the photo of the burned out vehicle does not show the vehicle cab at all. So I would not be 100% sure it is a MAZ-7930 even. It could be one sure. The fuel tank does look more like the one in the MAZ-7930.

AFU 47th mechanized brigade made an attack in force with armour on Rabotino and ran into 42nd motor rifle division of 58th combined arms army. The attack was crushed with heavy loses:


11 Bradleys, 2 tanks of some sort and 1 Leopard 2R lost in action. They were stopped in their attack by minefields and artillery fire, and they just happened to ended up stopping inside ATGM range yet just outside autocannon range.