The War in the Ukraine

Gloire_bb · Jul 7, 2023

Surpluswarrior said:
Reading all this stuff about 'weakening Russia's combat potential,' it seems disingenuous.

To be fair, it's the same thing about "demilitarization" concept in general.
During the war, potential of a country as whole goes down.
During a (land) war, combat potential of a country will only really go down when the male population of a country(or irreplaceable equipment) will start to show the mathematical bottom.
Otherwise, country will produce more and more veteran force.

"Potential" of France-1918 is at the bottom, add a bit more pressure and it'll collapse. France-1914 is much stronger.
"Combat potential" of France-1918 will break France-1914 in a matter of weeks. Because it is a huge veteran army, knowing exactly what it is doing, backed by the whole military-industrial monster, knowing exactly what it must do.

tankphobia · Jul 7, 2023

Gloire_bb said:
To be fair, it's the same thing about "demilitarization" concept in general.
During the war, potential of a country as whole goes down.
During a (land) war, combat potential of a country will only really go down when the male population of a country(or irreplaceable equipment) will start to show the mathematical bottom.
Otherwise, country will produce more and more veteran force.

"Potential" of France-1918 is at the bottom, add a bit more pressure and it'll collapse. France-1914 is much stronger.
"Combat potential" of France-1918 will break France-1914 in a matter of weeks. Because it is a huge veteran army, knowing exactly what it is doing, backed by the whole military-industrial monster, knowing exactly what it must do.

I guess the question becomes, are armored vehicles survivable enough for the experience to be retained in tank crews? With hundreds to thousands of armored vehicles losses on both sides, often with heavy casualties within the crew, I'm imagining a large number of veteran tank crews have been killed or injured in this war, you're left with a huge number of relatively green crews and a small number of elite who have managed to survive up to this point.

ShaoLaoDragon · Jul 7, 2023

Footage of Lancet blowing up T-64BV. It seems to have been fitted with tandem HEAT warhead to penetrate ERA.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677292557586378753

Tam · Jul 7, 2023

Much destruction and wreckage of Ukrainian vehicles in Pyatikhatki. This is the work of the Russian 58th Army and the Pavel Sudoplatov Battalion, named after the legendary Soviet intelligence officer. The Sudoplatov Battalion consists of pro-Russian Ukrainians and foreign volunteers.

Maxxpro takes ATGM straight in the forehead.

CV-90 destroyed in Svatovo Kremennaya front.

Allegedly a Tornado got hit by HIMARS. However that MLRS doesn't look like a Tornado.

Tornado G doesn't use a cab forward design on the truck.

Tornado S is not even close.

Tootensky · Jul 7, 2023

tankphobia said:
I guess the question becomes, are armored vehicles survivable enough for the experience to be retained in tank crews? With hundreds to thousands of armored vehicles losses on both sides, often with heavy casualties within the crew, I'm imagining a large number of veteran tank crews have been killed or injured in this war, you're left with a huge number of relatively green crews and a small number of elite who have managed to survive up to this point.

Why would you assume that the loss of an AFV means heavy crew casualties? Especially now that most losses to armor happen BVR. This isn't T-34s charging blindly among a sea of infantry into an artillery barrage. I don't know if numbers on this have been presented by either side, but judging by the pictures/clips posted on here over the last year and a half, I'd expect the bulk of losses either for Russia or Ukraine to be mobility kills, with the crews being probably ok. If we were talking intense urban combat, like Grozny, or at least Palestine, that would be a different story.

tankphobia · Jul 7, 2023

Tootensky said:
Why would you assume that the loss of an AFV means heavy crew casualties? Especially now that most losses to armor happen BVR. This isn't T-34s charging blindly among a sea of infantry into an artillery barrage. I don't know if numbers on this have been presented by either side, but judging by the pictures/clips posted on here over the last year and a half, I'd expect the bulk of losses either for Russia or Ukraine to be mobility kills, with the crews being probably ok. If we were talking intense urban combat, like Grozny, or at least Palestine, that would be a different story.

That's a fair call, actual destroyed vehicles have been previously abandoned more often then not. Its quite the opposite however for artillery platforms, which when destroyed pretty much guarantees crew wipe.

Temstar · Jul 7, 2023

The two areas I've been watching lately are Robotyne and Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut. Robotyne turned out to be a notherhingburger and possible disinformation campaign by some Osint accounts. Klishchiivka did experience something like a week of serious infantry attack from AFU but Russians reinforced the area with VDV and BARS reinforcement they seem to be beaten off as of yesterday:

Both Rybar and Suriyak now concur, Russians carried out successful counterattack around Klishchiivka and managed to drive off AFU and retake the high grounds. AFU in recent week seems to have stopped using massed armour to advance after loss of all that Leopard and Bradley and switched to infantry infiltration, but looks like that's also not working.

Atomicfrog · Jul 7, 2023

Temstar said:
AFU in recent week seems to have stopped using massed armour to advance after loss of all that Leopard and Bradley and switched to infantry infiltration, but looks like that's also not working.

With drone active overhead... it's just throwing people to be mauled with shrapnells. Just one 152mm round is covering over 100m radius with them. You can be lucky but a barrage with a dozen of shell is clearly creating a large zone that getting out easily without injuries is near impossible. You cannot cover ground fast enough to get out of the kill zone too. You can dig yourself in a hole and pray.

gelgoog · Jul 7, 2023

Tam said:
Allegedly a Tornado got hit by HIMARS. However that MLRS doesn't look like a Tornado.
Tornado G doesn't use a cab forward design on the truck.

Might be a Grad system on a KAMAZ truck chassis. Some of the forces in Donbass are known to use this.

I see no evidence of MLRS destruction like secondary detonations in the video though. Maybe it was unloaded.

Tam · Jul 7, 2023

Temstar said:
The two areas I've been watching lately are Robotyne and Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut. Robotyne turned out to be a notherhingburger and possible disinformation campaign by some Osint accounts. Klishchiivka did experience something like a week of serious infantry attack from AFU but Russians reinforced the area with VDV and BARS reinforcement they seem to be beaten off as of yesterday:

View attachment 115586
Both Rybar and Suriyak now concur, Russians carried out successful counterattack around Klishchiivka and managed to drive off AFU and retake the high grounds. AFU in recent week seems to have stopped using massed armour to advance after loss of all that Leopard and Bradley and switched to infantry infiltration, but looks like that's also not working.

There was an aerial aspect to that. The Russians threw every aircraft and drone at them and it became so bad the Ukrainians have to bring their AD closer to the front.

Which is why this AN/MPQ-64 radar used for NASAMs and Avengers got into Russian artillery range in Klishchiivka.

When the Ukrainian AD out of the way, the Russians used FABs against Ukrainian concentrations.

Added unrelated news.

Another M777 hit by Lancet.

The War in the Ukraine

Gloire_bb

Captain

tankphobia

Senior Member

ShaoLaoDragon

New Member

Tam

Brigadier

Tootensky

Junior Member

tankphobia

Senior Member

Temstar

Brigadier

Atomicfrog

Major

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

Tam

Brigadier