The War in the Ukraine

First time in a while since the MOD or any Russian officials started talking about him. Others mentioned that Russian military and civilian officials stopped referring him by name for the last few months. IMO any politician ambitions or his standing within Wagner is likely over the moment the conflict ends.

Wagner chief spreads misinformation — MOD​

The Russian Defense Ministry has accused PMC Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin of spreading falsehoods, after a video made rounds on social media on Friday purporting to show a rocket strike on one of the company’s bases from Russian territory.

“All messages and video distributed on social networks on behalf of [Yevgeny] Prigozhin about the alleged strike by the [Russian military] on the camps of PMC Wagner in the rear areas do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation,” the ministry said in a statement.

“Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the special military operation,” the ministry added.

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It is legit. I wonder how this will unfold. Will Putin give concessions?

To do this when Counteroffensive has largely stalled is unbelievable

Wasn't expecting this to happen during a (pending) counteroffensive. This weekend is going to be very interesting.

sequ said:

It is legit. I wonder how this will unfold. Will Putin give concessions?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672329967902904320

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Nah man he's still trolling! A man who is central to recent Russian capture of Bakhmut commanding a private army of 20K plus can just mouth off about the entire SMO repeatedly without repercussions, it does nothing for morale and I can think of no upsides for anyone from his actions. I think Putin might finally be putting the reins on him.

Twitter source stating that Wagner will go on a Russian list of foreign agents.

Prigozhin had been going off the rails for quite some time already. But I think what pushed him over the edge was the Russian Defense Ministry pulling the plug on these PMCs by making people sign contracts to serve in the army instead.
He is basically out of his depth really. And the idea he controls Wagner in the first place was always overrated. He is just the figurehead.

This little sideshow melodrama just seem so staged and ridiculous it would be comical if it actually worked in getting the west to expose all their agents and assets in Russia seeking to ‘exploit’ this ‘golden opportunity’ to stage the ‘coup’ their political leaders have been wet dreaming about for years.

tankphobia said:

I'm shamelessly ripping this from a reddit thread, but sources seems pretty reasonable.

Rheinmetall current production 450k annually - 37.5k/m

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Saab - 100k annually - 8k/m

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(calculated from 4X from pre-ukraine numbers = 400k)
BAES, Nammo, and Nexter - 1.7k/m from 20k annual

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South Korea (40k ish/month) - Estimation from amount of artillery systems they use.
MSM group - 2.5k/m from 30k annually.

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If you add US figures you arrive at the 100k figure. Note that most of those sources plan to double production over next 2 years.

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Putting a caveat that this is simply a logical thinking exercise...

Seems like they are talking about CAPACITY and real output like they are the same, but they are not. They might have the square footage and machinery to produce those numbers running at "full speed", but in reality they are just producing a small fraction of that.

I don't know how much they produce for export on a regular basis, but we know that EU's own usage is nowhere near "a million shells".

To double the existing production is quite simple, they can just run overtime with the existing workers, but to raise the output to these lofty numbers will require hiring and training plans, as mentioned before, you need qualified workers. More importantly from a corporate perspective, should this war end abruptly, contract termination compensation, lay off compensation, all of this would need to be negotiated before a company lifts a finger. If you need Capital equipment, now you get into some really complicated negotiations.

If you remember COVID, the US government got GM and Ford to produce ventilators. At some point they no longer needed them, but they still had to pay for all of them.

plawolf said:

This little sideshow melodrama just seem so staged and ridiculous it would be comical if it actually worked in getting the west to expose all their agents and assets in Russia seeking to ‘exploit’ this ‘golden opportunity’ to stage the ‘coup’ their political leaders have been wet dreaming about for years.

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Interesting that so far all the drama seems to be happening in the Rostov Region (next to Ukraine), which is far away from Moscow.