The War in the Ukraine

plawolf said:

It can’t be some insurmountable engineering challenge to integrate a MCLC with a flying munitions dispenser so you basically fly a number of those over a minefield and they just deploy enough MCLCs to punch a path through a minefield so your mechanised units can race through at full speed instead of crawling along at the speed of the ABV. If timed well, the massive dust cloud from the MCLC detonations might also serve as an effective smokescreen for the attackers.

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Dust cloud is a disadvantage (before being smoke defense, it'll complicate navigation and orientation - which is a very bad idea on the minefield), but otherwise, it's an interesting idea. Otherwise, production glide bombs can be probably used to clear such paths even "as is" - they're accurate enough - but it requires doctrinal acceptance.

Wouldn't thermobaric bombs be good enough to trigger mines?

Ka-52 takes out two Bradleys in the Zaporozhye region.
Two abandoned Leopards.
Destruction of a Ukrainian Buk air-defense system covering the offensive in Zaporozhye
Russians launched a counterattack and recaptured Makarovka with air, MLRS and artillery support.

Russian Forces ambush a Ukrainian helicopter near Artyomovsk
Starlink antennas in Krasnogorovka destroyed by UAV

Judging from the early returns, it looks like the lack of air power and diminished mobile air defenses will severely hamper the offensive.
Already there are about 4 - 6 Leo's lost and roughly the same amount of Bradley's.

That is about 10% of the available equipment (~60 of each type) for 4 villages.

Of course there are others like MaxxPro, Boxer, CV90, etc. available as well, but those seem to be few and far between (though CV90 is supposed to be available in comparable numbers)

What is "amazing" (definitely not the right word, but not sure what to say), is that the Ukrainian offensive is hitting the kind of elementary basic defensive strategy you would deploy even as a simple neophyte (minefields funneling into ATGM and artillery kill zones).

I imagine these must be tip of the spear type probing, but a very heavy price to pay for it.

plawolf said:

Feels a little off topic, but frankly I think it’s pretty damning of how major militaries have taken their eyes off the ball when it comes to de-mining work that no one has developed and fielded an air deployable mine clearing line charge (MCLC).

It can’t be some insurmountable engineering challenge to integrate a MCLC with a flying munitions dispenser so you basically fly a number of those over a minefield and they just deploy enough MCLCs to punch a path through a minefield so your mechanised units can race through at full speed instead of crawling along at the speed of the ABV. If timed well, the massive dust cloud from the MCLC detonations might also serve as an effective smokescreen for the attackers.

This is the sort of thing you would expect a bunch of engineering undergrads to be able to mock up as their final year project since all the major components are basically off-the-shelf items.

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Or maybe just a self driving mine clearing vehicle?

Something like that should be relatively expendable and cheap to build, considering its pretty mechanically simple

Zelensky promised to take Melitopol by the July NATO summit in Vilnius in exchange for the supply of additional weapons​

The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is specially timed to coincide with the July NATO summit, which will be held in Vilnius, Zelensky hopes to receive additional weapons from the West. This is reported by Ukrainian resources, citing sources at Bankova.

From various reports I've gathered, it seems like Ukrainians have managed to advance a few villages in largely thanks to bad weather, which impedes air support. Depending on how bad the weather is, the cloud cover can even get in the way of drone footage. Russian counter-offensive by the 127th motor rifle division is underway, some report that they've forced Ukrainians out of Makirovka, but the jury is still out.

What has to be commended, is Ukrainian will to keep pushing despite heavy fire and casualties (and perhaps questionable strategy). Fighting through low ground and seizing territory, while pushing uphill to fight for tactically important heights in the region.

HighGround said:

From various reports I've gathered, it seems like Ukrainians have managed to advance a few villages in largely thanks to bad weather, which impedes air support. Depending on how bad the weather is, the cloud cover can even get in the way of drone footage. Russian counter-offensive by the 127th motor rifle division is underway, some report that they've forced Ukrainians out of Makirovka, but the jury is still out.

What has to be commended, is Ukrainian will to keep pushing despite heavy fire and casualties (and perhaps questionable strategy). Fighting through low ground and seizing territory, while pushing uphill to fight for tactically important heights in the region.

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I‘m not sure and again like I already noted, we need to wait both for more information and at this early stage it is anyway too much in the flux.
However from various sources - some are not that much liked here by some - one can get the impression, that the Ukrainians are more successful than portrayed here but still it is too early to know, unconfirmed by independent or even Russian reports. But I get the feeling that the indeed dramatic loss of several Leos and Bradleys shown again and again in several reports give at best only a similar incomplete image and are not representative to say the Ukrainian counteroffensive has already failed.

Agreed with the above, the news/leaks about Ukraine having catastrophic munitions shortages (artillery, missiles, and AA) appears to be evident/crippling in this offensive, there is a lack of reports/footage of fire support.

They have totally failed on the left wing of Z-Oblast (Orichiv) with almost zero results and on the right wing their gains are just on the outskirts.

The area north of the Tomak is literally a maze of multiple layers of fortifications and the Tomak its is a fortified 'egg'.

On the right wing they are still 10 KM away from the first Russian defense line. It appears that the Cascade unit and other Russian units are performing maneuver defense, exploiting the high ground in that area.

The large amount of ground in front of the first defense line appears to be a playground where Russian forces try to attrit the enemy forces as much as possible, before they even approach the first line of fortifications.

8 of the 'NATO trained and armored equipped' brigades have not been used yet. This seems to be reserved for the main blow.

If Ukraine lost 10-20% of their strategic reserve last week than they have only 4-6 weeks of 'juice' left. Then they are stuck in a strategic dilemma if not dead end. If their military performance continues to be terrible and they go 'all it' in these zones, all they will achieve is two moderate-sized bulges in the Russian defense line at the end.

I expect to see some drastic changes to the original plan and possibly Ukraine may even call-off the offensive if the failures continue. The reputational damage is not just to Ukraine, but also to NATO & the worlds' perception of NATO training and hardware.

Deino said:

I‘m not sure and again like I already noted, we need to wait both for more information and at this early stage it is anyway too much in the flux.
However from various sources - some are not that much liked here by some - one can get the impression, that the Ukrainians are more successful than portrayed here but still it is too early to know, unconfirmed by independent or even Russian reports. But I get the feeling that the indeed dramatic loss of several Leos and Bradleys shown again and again in several reports give at best only a similar incomplete image and are not representative to say the Ukrainian counteroffensive has already failed.

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Fully agreed.

Though, just to note, there have been several visual confirmations of Ukrainians capturing a couple villages. Of course, a photo op does not "confirm" that the gains are solidified. For all we know, those villages were, or will be, recaptured in the next few days.