While this current Ukrainian offensive is a total wet squib with heavy Ukrainian losses and little to show for it, one thing the Russians should know painfully well is how willing Ukrainian high command is at throwing away the lives of its soldiers to achieve their aims.
The Kharkiv breakthrough from last year was proceeded by the calamity at Kherson, where Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses trying and failing to breech Russian lines.
My initial thoughts are that the current offensive looks very much like a repeat, with the Ukrainians putting troops into a Turkey shoot to try to lure the Russians into complacency when they make their main push.
The Nova Kakhovka dam may be a key part of the Ukrainian strategy as the timing of its destruction is too close to their offensive to be co-incidental.
The Russian lines facing the river are largely flooded and untenable, with upstream water levels also falling, that opens up multiple areas of opportunity for an amphibious assault. We also had reports from earlier months of Ukraine re-organising and expanding it’s marines and other amphibious capable units into a marine corps.
Makes me wonder if Ukraine might not be looking to launch a large scale amphibious assault to bypass much of the prepare Russian defences aimed to repeat their earlier success by advancing so fast and so far that they start threatening Russian artillery positions. When the Russian artillery is forced to withdraw to avoid being engaged, that opens up the front for Ukrainian tanks and armour to roll up the front line.
But unlikely last time, the Russians should be ready for such a move, and they also hard vastly more warm bodies manning the front. So it will be very interesting to see if the Ukrainians can pull off the same trick twice.