The War in the Ukraine

Totoro said:

The dam can collapse sure but, whats the deal with the video of huge explosion at the dam in the early morning on 6th of june?

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FairAndUnbiased said:

I can believe the water intrusion into the foundation but can you elaborate on the claim of resonance as a contributing factor to collapse?

I'm aware of resonance and it typically occurs when the frequency of the driving force is close to or equal to the natural frequency of an object.

the change in driving force for the dam via water levels seems to have frequency ~weeks or months, so ~1E-7 Hz.

the natural frequency for dams was found to be at the 10's-100's Hz level (w = 2*Pi*f) or 8-9 orders of magnitude higher.

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it is unlikely for resonance to occur when the driving force and natural frequency differ by 8-9 orders of magnitude.

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Temstar said:

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Looks like Leo2 losses to me.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666716085171699712

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GodRektsNoobs said:

I think he definitely has a point in the beginning, but has an uncanny ability turn any incident into a long charade blaming Russia. What we know is that the dam has withstood such high levels of water previously, so while I do believe that the dam rupture was not delibrate, damage incurred during the war must be the likely cause. If Ukrainian shelling has no effect on the dam, then why would they delibrately target it repeatedly with one of the most advanced weapons supplied to them by the US? Also, it seem pretty ridiculous for Russia to take full responsibility for the rupture since it is impossible to perform maintenance on the dam due to its position on the front line. He is literally setting Russia up for failure by using impossible goals, which is basically what MSM does everyday.

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If I had to make my guess about what happened to the dam, it would be as follows:

I believe Russia was retaining water to maintain the power to create flooding in the event of a Ukrainian amphibious assault across the lower Dnieper. Ukraine attempted to nullify this tool with a limited breach of the dam (of the sort which they rehearsed last December) but the dam failure cascaded beyond what they intended due to A) the resevoir being at extremely high levels, putting excessive stress on the strucure, and B) previous damage to the structure from prior Ukrainian shelling and rocketry attacks. Indeed, images of the dam seem to suggest that it failed in stages, with a single span leaking before the collapse metastasized.

I find the idea that Russia destroyed the dam to be very difficult to believe, for the following reasons (in recap):

1. Flooding disproportionately affected the Russian side of the river and destroyed Russian positions.
2. The loss of the dam does severe damage to core Russian interests, including Crimean water access and agriculture on the steppe.
3. The dam, while intact, was a tool which Russia was using to manipulate the water level freely.
4. Of the two beligerent parties, only Ukraine has openly shot at the dam and talked about breaching it.

We may learn, of course, that there was some accidental failure of some kind, potentially due to the

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between Russia and Ukraine as they try to balance the flow of the river. But in a wartime situation, when a major infrastructure object is destroyed, it is most rational to assume intentional destruction, and in this situation the costs to critical Russian infrastructure and the loss of a valuable tool for controlling the river make it extremely difficult to believe that Russia would blow up its own dam.

Ultimately, perhaps your judgement on the matter simply reflects your larger belief about who is winning the war. Breaching a dam is, after all, rather a desperation move - so maybe the question to ask is: who do you think is more desperate? Whose back is against the wall here - Russia, or Ukraine?

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Deino said:

Where do you see - what indeed could be a Leo 2 - losing?
All I see is column of vehicles including some that could be Leo 2s … but no hit, none burning … ???

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sheogorath said:

Interesting pictures taken around Orehkovo by a Russian drone during one of the Ukranian attempts

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666705153016188929

Seems the TRML radar might have been finished off with a Krasnopol after the Lancet hit but there is no confirmation of it yet

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666698037199003648

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GodRektsNoobs said:

Here is what we have so far. Some vehicles are hit, others are abandoned. There is a saying in Chinese: 让子弹多飞一会儿. Let's wait and see.

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Deino said:

agreed, but I’m not sure if these images are clear enough to see if they are abandoned?!
But yes, let’s wait and see

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Deino said:

agreed, but I’m not sure if these images are clear enough to see if they are abandoned?!
But yes, let’s wait and see

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Air reconnaissance footage of yesterday's failed offensive by Nazi armored groups at Orekhovo.
The offensive of the armored fists stalled, the enemy lost dozens of vehicles in an attempt to suppress our firing positions and deliver infantry to the front line.

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