The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
AFU is launching renewed attack near Velyka Novosilka, with greater strength than yesterday. Looks like serious fighting going on there.
Gerasimov is in the area, so he likely knew and anticipated this. Things heating up. Sounds exciting.
On other things, a camera drone watches and records the battle over Maryinka. You can see artillery and mortar shells whizz by and land on the ground, exploding.
There was reports and photographs of a large fire cloud over Dnipropetrovsk. Turns out the Russians preempted a large drone making facility with an Iskander. Given the AoE of this missile, there's bound to be unfortunate collateral casualties.
Heavy fighting and shooting in that area between Yuzhnodonets and Zaporozhye fronts. Here a destroyed MaxxPro can be seen.
Downed Ukrainian UAV in the area. It's called Penguin-C.
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The losses were greater, in the evening the Russian MoD published another video about 4 km from where these photos are, there are also about 8 vehicles destroyed:
This morning they have launched a larger assault than yesterday's on another village in the area, with partial success they have dug in on the outskirts of the village and Russia is launching a counter-attack:
They also attempted an offensive in Soledar but it was covered with artillery, a quite big column of vehicles can be seen in the video before it dispersed, russians say that was the first wave, that was defeated, they launched another assault:
Some updates from the Swede Mikael Valtersson on Twitter, quote:
NEWS UPDATE VUHLEDAR MORNING JUNE 5
The fighting rages on in northern Novodonetskoye(2) west of Vuhledar (3), but russian forces are now counterattacking and driving out the ukrainian forces from the northern outskirts of the settlement. Yesterday UkrAF attacked Velikonovoselovka (1) east of Vuhledar and tonight large ukrainian forces gathered again in front of that settlement, making the russians believe that an another attack (A) was about to take place towards Velikonovoselovka.
But that was a diversion as the real attack (B) was instead in the west towards Novodonetskoye. The ukrainian force at Novodonetskoye was initially much smaller than their forces near Velikonovoselovka, but reinforcements has arrived during the night. The UkrAF attack was successful and they broke through the russian lines and entered Novodonetskoye from the north. The russian forces in Novodonetskoye resisted during the night which gave the russians time to gather reinforcement for a counterattack. The last hours the russian counterattack (C) together, with massive shelling of the ukrainian forces, drives the ukrainian forces north towards the old frontline.
ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS JUNE 4
June 4th UkrAF scaled up offensive operations on the Southern Front, but the losses are too high for long time success. Earlier operations were mainly reconnaissance in force with platoon and company sized combat groups. Yesterday the ukrainian forces seemed to be battalion sized combat groups. According to Russian MoD 8 UkrAF battalions was involved in offensive operations SE of Mala Tokmachka (1), at the Vremivka salient (2) and East of Vuhledar towards Velikonovoselovka (3). The fighting was intense, but on most places ukrainian forces was turned back, mainly by intense russian artillery and air attacks. On some places UkrAF succeeded in capturing a couple of hundred meters.
There are two different media stories about the fighting. The ukrainian side is very quiet about both the attacks and eventual losses on their side. Russian sources are much more liberal with information, both in text and videos. IF the russian information is correct, this explains the ukrainian silence, since the ukrainian side seldom concedes major losses on their side and tries to shift attention to other subjects.
According to the russian side, ukrainian losses amount at least 10 tanks, nearly 40 IFVs or APCs and at least 250 eliminated (KIA or very badly WIA). With this number of eliminated, the number of wounded would probably be 750-1000.
Are these numbers true, the prospects for a ukrainian counteroffensive looks very dim. This is even if we don't take into account the ongoing intense russian air and artillery offensive against UkrAF troop concentrations, ammunition and fuel depots.
With losses of over 1000 KIA and WIA that means that a ukrainian brigade of 4000 man loose at least 25 percent of its manpower. That's on the brink of making a brigade unusable. Two days fighting with such losses would destroy a brigades battle capability. 24 days with such losses would in effect destroy the entire fist of 12 brigades UkrAF has gathered for the counteroffensive. With losses of around 12 brigades, 25 000 KIA/WIA, 250 tanks and 1000 IFVs/APCs all the strategic reserves UkrAF has built during the last 6 months would be gone. In exchange the ukrainian side could have advanced maybe 10 km on some places or more generally 2-3 km along maybe half the southern front.
Once again, IF the russian claims are true, RuAF must feel relieved and UkrAF very worried by the results of the fighting on the Southern front June 4th. Map from Institute of War.
NEWS UPDATE VUHLEDAR MORNING JUNE 5
The fighting rages on in northern Novodonetskoye(2) west of Vuhledar (3), but russian forces are now counterattacking and driving out the ukrainian forces from the northern outskirts of the settlement. Yesterday UkrAF attacked Velikonovoselovka (1) east of Vuhledar and tonight large ukrainian forces gathered again in front of that settlement, making the russians believe that an another attack (A) was about to take place towards Velikonovoselovka.
But that was a diversion as the real attack (B) was instead in the west towards Novodonetskoye. The ukrainian force at Novodonetskoye was initially much smaller than their forces near Velikonovoselovka, but reinforcements has arrived during the night. The UkrAF attack was successful and they broke through the russian lines and entered Novodonetskoye from the north. The russian forces in Novodonetskoye resisted during the night which gave the russians time to gather reinforcement for a counterattack. The last hours the russian counterattack (C) together, with massive shelling of the ukrainian forces, drives the ukrainian forces north towards the old frontline.
ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS JUNE 4
June 4th UkrAF scaled up offensive operations on the Southern Front, but the losses are too high for long time success. Earlier operations were mainly reconnaissance in force with platoon and company sized combat groups. Yesterday the ukrainian forces seemed to be battalion sized combat groups. According to Russian MoD 8 UkrAF battalions was involved in offensive operations SE of Mala Tokmachka (1), at the Vremivka salient (2) and East of Vuhledar towards Velikonovoselovka (3). The fighting was intense, but on most places ukrainian forces was turned back, mainly by intense russian artillery and air attacks. On some places UkrAF succeeded in capturing a couple of hundred meters.
There are two different media stories about the fighting. The ukrainian side is very quiet about both the attacks and eventual losses on their side. Russian sources are much more liberal with information, both in text and videos. IF the russian information is correct, this explains the ukrainian silence, since the ukrainian side seldom concedes major losses on their side and tries to shift attention to other subjects.
According to the russian side, ukrainian losses amount at least 10 tanks, nearly 40 IFVs or APCs and at least 250 eliminated (KIA or very badly WIA). With this number of eliminated, the number of wounded would probably be 750-1000.
Are these numbers true, the prospects for a ukrainian counteroffensive looks very dim. This is even if we don't take into account the ongoing intense russian air and artillery offensive against UkrAF troop concentrations, ammunition and fuel depots.
With losses of over 1000 KIA and WIA that means that a ukrainian brigade of 4000 man loose at least 25 percent of its manpower. That's on the brink of making a brigade unusable. Two days fighting with such losses would destroy a brigades battle capability. 24 days with such losses would in effect destroy the entire fist of 12 brigades UkrAF has gathered for the counteroffensive. With losses of around 12 brigades, 25 000 KIA/WIA, 250 tanks and 1000 IFVs/APCs all the strategic reserves UkrAF has built during the last 6 months would be gone. In exchange the ukrainian side could have advanced maybe 10 km on some places or more generally 2-3 km along maybe half the southern front.
Once again, IF the russian claims are true, RuAF must feel relieved and UkrAF very worried by the results of the fighting on the Southern front June 4th. Map from Institute of War.
More footage from Yesterday, another 9 vehicles destroyed by helicopters.
Translation from Russian:
And here is footage of the destruction of advancing enemy armoured vehicles in the Zaporizhzhya direction
In addition to 5th Army units, Army aviation of Group [V] was also actively involved in repulsing yesterday's attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
We have in our hands exclusive footage of the destruction of enemy equipment with pilots' comments.
From this footage alone we can confirm the destruction or incapacitation of at least 9 armoured vehicles, reportedly predominantly of Western type. At this rate, the beggar Zelensky will be pestering his Western partners.
So we have around 30 vehicles destroyed yesterday confirmed, maybe MoD was close to the truth for once?
This is almost a battalion of losses in one day with very little success.
Translation from Russian:
And here is footage of the destruction of advancing enemy armoured vehicles in the Zaporizhzhya direction
In addition to 5th Army units, Army aviation of Group [V] was also actively involved in repulsing yesterday's attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
We have in our hands exclusive footage of the destruction of enemy equipment with pilots' comments.
From this footage alone we can confirm the destruction or incapacitation of at least 9 armoured vehicles, reportedly predominantly of Western type. At this rate, the beggar Zelensky will be pestering his Western partners.
So we have around 30 vehicles destroyed yesterday confirmed, maybe MoD was close to the truth for once?
This is almost a battalion of losses in one day with very little success.
Germany to supply Ukraine with 66 BATT UMG 4x4 armored vehicles and not Fuchs APCs
An article published by the German newspaper, "", on June 2, 2023, revealed that the 66 Armored Personnel Carrier (APC) vehicles, set to be provided by Germany to Ukraine, will not be APCs, but rather . These are designed and developed by the American company "The Armored Group".
The BATT UMG has already been adopted by the Ukrainian armed forces. On December 20, 2022, a video published on social media platforms depicted Ukrainian troops operating the BATT UMG in the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, according to a report by the Army Recognition editorial team.
A mine-protected variant of the BATT APC, the BATT UMG ensures high blast protection of up to STANAG 4569 Level II a and b in the small APC-size classification. It boasts an in-house custom axle design, providing an additional 6,000 lbs of payload capacity. This indicates the BATT's capacity to bear the weight of the extra armoring.
The BATT UMG is crafted on a readily available civilian platform, which is then upgraded to meet TAG’s stringent conflict zone survivability standards. It is powered by a V8 diesel turbocharged engine, connected to a 6-speed automatic transmission, and is based on a Ford F550. This Ford foundation provides the BATT UMG access to one of the world's largest OEM international parts distribution networks, facilitating repairs even in the remotest parts of the world.
The BATT UMG is crafted on a readily available civilian platform, which is then upgraded to meet TAG’s stringent conflict zone survivability standards. It is powered by a V8 diesel turbocharged engine, connected to a 6-speed automatic transmission, and is based on a Ford F550. This Ford foundation provides the BATT UMG access to one of the world's largest OEM international parts distribution networks, facilitating repairs even in the remotest parts of the world.
I always love the unconfirmed drivel from ISW.
It's completely ridiculous as usual. They need to do better, it's supposed to be a reputable think tank for god's sake.
Anyway, the Russian MoD claims they shot down an Ukrainian Su-27.
It's completely ridiculous as usual. They need to do better, it's supposed to be a reputable think tank for god's sake.
Anyway, the Russian MoD claims they shot down an Ukrainian Su-27.
Latest Rybar map.
We should get clearer reporting the next day, or by nightfall. The fighting should die down at some point.
We should get clearer reporting the next day, or by nightfall. The fighting should die down at some point.