The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Airstrike in progress again, this time around Dnepropetrovsk seems to be getting hit particularly hard, both kamikaze drones as well as cruise missiles.
View attachment 113091
Maybe this is interdiction for materials intended for the counteroffensive?

Secondary explosions followed by something burning big at Dnepropetrovsk. Sounds like ammo and fuel.

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Russian FPV drone hit on Ukrainian ZU truck with third person POV kill confirmation.

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Ukrainians leaving Artemovsk, filmed from first person POV. Sight of many destroyed vehicles along the road.

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Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do you think that full sanction from the west have any negative impact to aircraft production number ?
Most of the effect that sanctions could have had on the Russian defence industry was absorbed in 2014. People easily forget that Russia has not been sanctioned by the West for 1.5 years, but for a decade.

Perhaps one of the most famous examples of "adaptation" to sanctions is how Russia copied French thermal technology.

But there are others that seem to me to be of particular interest. For example in the area of surface ship propulsion.
The Russian Federation was not born out of nothing, it has its origins in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
And it turns out that the former state had most of its shipbuilding industry in today's Ukraine, well, the Moskova sank a few hundred km from where it was built (Mikolaev).
When 2014 arrived, Russia was still almost totally dependent on the Ukrainian shipbuilding industry, in general it is clear that 2014 caught them by surprise once you look at all this kind of stuff. That is why the modernisation of surface ships stopped dead in its tracks; there were also Western technological inputs, as with the German gas turbines.
This is clearly seen in Project 22350.
The first two ships of the class relied heavily on Ukrainian industry and Western technology.
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This image tells us a lot. Modernisation begins and in the previous two years to 2014 construction of two of the ships began, one each year.
Then came 2014 and everything came to a complete halt, and construction of new ships did not begin until 2019 when Russia put its shipyards in order.
And it was not until 2022 that the Golovko received a 100% Russian gas propulsion system without having to rely on Germany.
It has been reported that the ship has already passed its propulsion and mobility tests, so this decade will see the number of modern ships increase significantly.

This is one of the examples, but it is everywhere, including with another of the topics of special interest, such as semiconductors, in which the Russians have been making progress since 2014.

I think that the whole world forgot about these sanctions and that Russia not only created gold reserves in case of new sanctions, but there were moves towards creating independent technologies and establishing additional supply routes with friendly countries such as China, India, Iran etc.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Moreover, Russian fleet is new - Su-35 fleet(air superiority) was just procured in the previous decade, Su-30SM is also mostly a 2010s production now awaiting a mild mid-life upgrade. Apart from the few selected units operating older stuff (mostly navy) - the situation for Russia just isn't very urgent.
Rostec is saying that they have exported 700 Flankers series form Year 2000 to 2022 and those presumably not include contract signed in 2021. They are excluding deliveries count before year 2000 for export.

so they expect Russia fleet to be largest but than you will need to deduct Su-24/Su-25 to get a Flanker number and than add production numbers of 2021 and 2022. but its not easy to know what they consider Sukhoi aircraft. The earlier video has this picture of Su-35 productions but so far they have never released any pics of assembly line of Su-57 only picture of single fighter at a time.

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"Rosoboronexport has delivered about 700 Su-27/Su-30 combat aircraft abroad since 2000
In 2021, the company's order portfolio was replenished with new contracts for the supply of
Su-30SMs,"
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abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
Moreover, Russian fleet is new -
Backbone of RuAF are still Cold War, 80-s planes like Su-27, MiG-29, Su-24, Su-25, MiG-31. Some of them have been modernised, but all are about 35-40 years old now, and their replacement time was about 10 years ago, and I really doubt that Russia will be able to replace them in another 10 years, at least, and that's with 4-th generation, not 5-th...

So, it isn't new. And it will be older and older, especially now with the war and sanctions and who knows what will happen.
 

abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
Dzomgi airbase is right next to the KnAAPO factory. Makes sense to have your first operational deployment base as close to the manufacturer as possible to work out the kinks, plus this is 2018 news.

The first serial Su-57 were sent to the Southern Military District, next to the Black Sea.
Yes, it is, what I wanted to say, was lack of Russian serious preparations for war. With 10 or so, serially produced aircrafts from 2018. Plus, normally, first serially produced aircrafts go to testing and training squadrons, so you can see how many do they have in real operational squadrons.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Backbone of RuAF are still Cold War, 80-s planes like Su-27, MiG-29, Su-24, Su-25, MiG-31. Some of them have been modernised, but all are about 35-40 years old now, and their replacement time was about 10 years ago, and I really doubt that Russia will be able to replace them in another 10 years, at least, and that's with 4-th generation, not 5-th...
1st line of RuAF consists out of Su-35, Su-30sm(sm2),Su-34, produced in late 2000s-2010s. On top of that, there is the upgraded interceptor and ground attack fleet(Mig-31bm; su-25sm/sm3), and Su-27sm3 in Crimea.
Literally, this whole fleet is new/newly upgraded.

The same units operate some older or different a/c as their second-line aircraft (su-27sm, su-30m2, su-24m, su-25) - using them for training, rear CAPs, and more.
Vanilla Su-27p/s, Mig-29s, Su-25 and Mig-31 aren't or almost aren't used by RuAF. Russian navy uses some of them in other theaters, but that's completely beyond the Ukrainian context.

This heavy fighter force, overall, is new and fresh - so new and fresh, that it's honestly weird that Russia went for Su-57 development in the first place. Light, single-engine fighter type made just more sense.
 
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tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
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This is a pretty good article on the current state of fortifications that Russia has built over the entire front, with interlocking fields on fire and fallback defensive lines. While they are well built and logically constructed, the question is whether they are sufficiently manned to be used to their full effect.
 
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